Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for January 27th, 2018. Saturday night we get a solid slate with six games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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C: Dwight Howard: (8,000) It isn’t ideal that this is going to be Howard third game in four nights, but the $800 price drop he saw from last night is just comical. I touched on it the other day, how he is playing his best basketball of the season and he continued this run last night, dominating The Hawks for his seventh straight double double of 18 points, 15 rebounds, seven blocks, three assists, and a steal in 34.5 minutes. He is now averaging 47 DK PPG and 34 MPG over his last seven starts. As I just said he has posted a double double in all of these games, on a team high 25.1% rebound percentage, while picking up a steal and at least two blocks in every game. Tonight, he is a positive matchup vs The Heat (2.61 opponent +/-), which is a matchup that will need his size, going against Heat starting center Hassan Whiteside.
This season, Howard hasn’t been affected by playing on the second night of back to back sets, seeing a 0.86 DK point +/- when playing his second game in two nights. At $8,000, he needs to score 40 DK points to meet value, which is something he has done in seven consecutive games. I am expecting roughly 45 DK points from him tonight and he is easily one of the strongest values of this slate, that I will be using with confidence in all formats.
PG/SG: Tomas Satoranksy: (3,500) Satoransky will draw the start tonight at PG for The Wizards, with John Wall sitting this one out due to a sore knee. It hasn’t always been him starting for Wall, but in the 11 games the All Star has been out this season, Satoransky is scoring a solid 0.81 DK PPM, which is a notable 0.4 DK PPM increase. As the starter, he should see 25-30 minutes in this strong matchup vs The Hawks, who have struggled at defending PGs all season. (3.39 opponent +/-)
Not only do they struggle at defending PGs, they rank as the 5th worst defense overall this year. His ceiling is low, but Satoranksy should be able to score 20+ DK points in this spot, which would be an excellent return considering his near minimum price tag. He is the best pure punt of this slate that is a friendly option, with his PG/SG eligibility on DraftKings.
PG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (6,300) After easing him earlier in the season, DSJ is now playing the starter like minutes he deserves. In his last eight games he is averaging 32.6 MPG compared to the 27.8 MPG he averaged in his first 34 games of the season. The boost in playing time has obviously helped his numbers and he is averaging 33 DK PPG during this span, while seeing a team high 28.5% usage rate. With the expanded role, he is scoring 1.01 DK PPM and in 30+ minutes tonight, the rookie should score 30-35 DK points playing slightly up in pace vs The Nuggets. (1.6 possession increase)
This matchup currently rates as a solid 2.58 opponent +/- for starting PGs and in his first two meetings vs Denver this season, he averaged 32.6 DK PPG. At $6,300, DSJ is a nice mid-tier target that has safety and upside, that I am comfortable with in both cash games and GPPs.
SF/PF: Harrison Barnes: (6,100) I also like Barnes quite a bit tonight at only $6,100. He has been a very steady option this month, averaging 33 DK PPG in 35 MPG. He is coming off a strong showing last night, dropping 21 points, seven rebounds, three assists, a steal, and a block in a tough matchup vs The Blazers who are top ten rated defense this season.
His matchup tonight isn’t great by the numbers (0.67 opponent +/-), but he has had no issues vs this Nuggets team this season, averaging 35.8 DK PPG in their first two meetings. In roughly 35 minutes, Barnes should exceed five times value with 40 DK point upside. This $6,100 price tag is the cheapest he has been this month and I think we need to take advantage of Barnes at this discount on Saturday night.
Also Consider: Bradley Beal (His usage goes up a team high 4.6% when Wall is off the court this season. He is scoring 39.14 DK points per 36 minutes and the nice matchup vs The Hawks, who are a 3.18 current opponent +/-, makes him a great target in all formats), Otto Porter Jr. (usage rises 3.8% and he scores 34.7 DK points per 36 minutes without Wall. He is slightly underpriced for this role and is a fine value), Nikola Jokic (43 DK PPG over his last three and is taking on The Mavs who struggle vs opposing centers, at a 3.93 opponent +/-. He scored 67 DK points on them in their first meeting of this season), Will Barton (his usage is down to 15.5% as a starter, but he is scoring 0.96 DK PPM this season. He isn’t my favorite play, but he has a chance of getting five times value), Trey Lyles/Mason Plumlee (whoever starts at the four is a nice play vs this weak Mavs frontline. Both didn’t play much in their first game vs The Mavs, but if I was going to guess, I think Lyles plays more in this matchup), Evan Fournier (over 30 DK points in two straight games, but the matchup is tough vs The Pacers), Caris LeVert (usage rises 4.2% with RHJ and Russell off the floor. In the two games without RHJ, Russell, and Lin, LeVert averaged 27.8 DK points in 28.4 minutes), Al Horford, Draymond Green, Jayson Tatum (34.5 DK PPG in the three games that Smart has been out this season, which is a team high 8.5 DK point increase), and Terry Rozier. (27 DK PPG and 28.4 MPG in the three without Smart this season. He will play a big role off the bench tonight and playing up in pace is ideal for his game. His $4,600 price tag isn’t bad and he is a solid cheap way of getting exposure to this Celtics Warriors game, that has the highest total of the night at 219 points)