Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 28th. For Monday night, we get five games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,800)
In Jamal Murray’s (ankle) first missed game of the season, Jokic went off for 76.5 DK points vs The Sixers on Saturday. In the win, he led The Nuggets in usage (31%), assist rate (43.5%), and rebound percentage (27.3%), helping The Joker to his 7th triple double of the season. Murray will remain sidelined tonight vs The Grizzlies, which should keep Jokic in a massive role.
With Marc Gasol playing less for Memphis (28 MPG in L2, both tight games), this matchup is actually rating positive for centers right now. (1.31 opponent +/-) The one downside is that this game is in Memphis, but Jokic has been much better on the road recently. (56.94 DK PPG in L4 road games compared to 45 DK PPG for the season) Overall, he is the best value over $9,000, and with many strong cheap values available, I think building around Jokic is the right choice for this five game slate.
PG/SG: Patrick Beverly: (4,500)
With Danilo Gallinari (back) “unlikely” to play tonight, Beverly will continue to see heavy playing time vs The Hawks. In these last five full games without Galo, Beverly is scoring 34.55 DK PPG in 36.6 MPG. He was two assists shy of a triple double in yesterday’s win over The Kings (47 DK points) and tonight’s matchup vs The Hawks is even better, with them ranking 25th in defensive efficiency, and 1st in pace. (2.02 opponent +/-) Beverly has produced 0.89 DK PPM in these past five and when he has played up in pace this season (ATL is a 3.3 possession increase for LAC), he has exceeded expectations by an average of 4.8 DK PPG.
Additionally, The Clippers have the highest implied team total of Monday night (119 points) and in the nine home games that LA has been projected for 115 points or more, Beverly is posting a 3.47 DK point +/-. Last, but certainly not least, for a defensive pest like Beverly, The Hawks have allowed the most steals per game this year. His price has actually dropped $200 since yesterday and Beverly is the best value from The Clippers on Monday.
SG: Avery Bradley: (3,700)
Just like with P Bevs, Bradley has been productive with the extra minutes Galo’s absence has created (26.05 DK PPG in 37.08 MPG in L5), and his price been cut since yesterday vs The Kings. (-$200) In that win, Bradley scored 30.5 DK points and this was the fifth game in a row he has scored at least 21.5 DK points. Bradley has also benefited from playing up in pace (+2.67 DK PPG this season) and is also a player that can rack up steals in bunches.
Bradley and Beverly are two of the best on ball defenders in The NBA, and they each have a chance at multiple defensive stats vs this fast Hawks’ team. They are both very underpriced with Gallianri out of the lineup and I will be using them together in the same lineup.
PG/SG: Trey Burke: (4,200)
With Emmanuel Mudiay (shoulder) out, Burke has been reinserted into The Knicks’ rotation, and been solid with the opportunity. (29.38 DK PPG and 28.13 MPG in L2) Now, with Frank Ntilikina (shoulder) also out, Burke should start at PG for The Knicks. (he started the second half last night after Ntilikina got hurt) Burke has scored 0.98 DK PPM this year and is averaging 25.5 DK PPG in all the games he has gone over 20 minutes this season.
Plus, The Hornets are weak against guards (1.59 opponent +/-) and if he ends up seeing 30+ minutes, Burke’s ceiling is very high (43.25 DK PPG in the three he played over 30 this season), relative to his cheap salary. Simply put, I don’t see how you can ignore Burke at only $4,200.
PG: Kyrie Irving: (9,600) Irving has been magnificent, scoring over 60 DK points in four of his last five games. His usage has been at a high 30% during this span and his ceiling is very high, if this game vs The Nets can stay close. (BOS -10.5) UPDATE: Irving has been ruled out with a hip injury. Even though he’s not as cheap as he usually is when Irving sits, Terry Rozier at $5,300 is one of the best values of the night. He scored 48 DK points vs The Cavs in the most recent outing without Irving and is averaging 32.75 DK PPG in the six full contests that The All-Star PG has missed this season. Furthermore, Horford (below), Jayson Tatum (team high 32.92 DK PPG W/O Irving), and Marcus Morris (26.35 DK PPG W/O Irving) all see nice bumps in their value, and are viable in all formats. Gordon Hayward also warrants some consideration for GPPs (29.7 DK PPG W/O Irving), but his floor is naturally lower as a bench player.
PG/SG: Steph Curry: (9,100)
The Warriors’ will be without Draymond Green (rest) and Jonas Jerebko (personal) tonight. When these two have been missing, Curry has seen a 1.4% usage bump, and is leading The Warriors with 1.32 DK PPM. If this road game (49.4 DK PPG on the road this season) vs The Pacers can stay competitive (GSW -8), Curry could be looking at a huge night, against this defense that is down Victor Oladipo. (out, quad)
SF/PF: Tobias Harris: (8,000)
Harris is averaging 42.85 DK PPG in these last five with Gallinari out and The Hawks are a superb matchup. (1.56 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (7,400)
Williams has been awesome in his last three (45.58 DK PPG) and he has excelled when playing up in pace this season. (34.18 DK PPG in 11 games) Plus, in their first meeting vs The Hawks this year, Williams produced 41.3 DK points.
PF/C: Montrezl Harrell: (7,100)
Harrell’s price is correct, but nearly every Clipper is viable vs The Hawks. (1.97 opponent +/-) When The Clippers played Atlanta back in November, Harrell exploded for 55.3 DK points off the bench.
PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (6,600)
Sabonis scores a team best 1.32 DK PPM with Oladipo off the court. Furthermore, The Warriors are a strong matchup for bigs (2.29 opponent +/-), that should be even weaker with Green out.
PF/C: Demarcus Cousins: (6,500)
Cousins should play a little more with Green absent. He is scoring 1.49 DK PPM and could easily out produce this price tag, if given 25+ minutes. (IND is a 2.04 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Al Horford: (6,400)
Horford doesn’t have a minutes restriction anymore (over 30 in four of last five) and this matchup vs The Nets is outstanding. (3.79 opponent +/-) Barring a blowout, Horford should surpass five times value, especially with this game being in Boston. (5.6 more DK PPG at home this season)
PF/C: Noah Vonleh: (6,200)
Before last night (15.25 DK points in 25 minutes vs The Heat), Vonleh had played over 30 minutes in three straight. (33.49 DK PPG) With no sign of Enes Kanter rejoining this rotation, Vonleh should get back to logging 30+ minutes tonight vs The Hornets. (1.0 opponent +/-) In two meetings this season, Vonleh is averaging 35.9 DK PPG vs Charlotte.
PG: Darren Collison: (5,900)
Collison scored 36.5 DK points in the first game since Oladipo got hurt and has scored 30+ DK points in four consecutive games. The Warriors are a pace bump for The Pacers (2.5 possession increase) and Collison should top 30 DK points again.
PF/C: Jaren Jackson: (5,700)
JJ played 31 minutes on Saturday and JaMychal Green (knee) is a GTD. If he is out, Jackson should see 30+, in this decent spot vs The Nuggets. (1.64 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Dewayne Dedmon: (5,500)
Dedmon is in the best possible matchup for a starter this evening. (LAC is a 4.23 opponent +/-) He is scoring 33.75 DK PPG in his last three and has a ceiling above 40 DK points in this spot. (34.5 DK points in 24 minutes in his first meeting with LAC)
SG/SF: Nicholas Batum: (4,900)
Batum has been solid (27.86 DK PPG in L4) and The Knicks are the 3rd worst defense in the league. He is a lock for 30+ minutes and is averaging 30.5 DK points in two games vs The Knicks this season.
PG/SG: Shabazz Napier: (4,800)
His price went up fast, but in the first game after Spencer Dinwiddie (out, thumb) got hurt, Napier was huge for this Nets’ second unit. (25 DK points in 28 minutes vs The Knicks) Tonight, he faces The Celtics, who are the 5th best defense, compared to The Knicks, who are the 3rd worst, but Napier still has a decent shot of returning value, with 25-30 minutes of playing time.
C: Willie Hernangomez: (3,900)
Hernagomez is very unpredictable (22.75 DK points and 10.25 DK points in L2), but tonight, he in a revenge spot, vs The Knicks. He scores 1.24 DK PPM and could top 20 DK points in 15-20 minutes of work, given the extra motivation of playing his former team.
SG/SF: Andre Iguodala: (3,900)
Iggy has scored 20+ DK points in eight of his last ten games and would be a nice punt if named the starter for Green.
SF/PF: Mario Hezonja: (3,500)
After Ntilikina gor hurt last night (15 minutes), Hezonja played 30 minutes off the bench and scored 26.25 DK points against The Heat. He didn’t play in the two previous games, so there is some risk here, but if given 20+ minutes, Hezonja should provide five to seven times value. (28.55 DK PPG in L5 over 20 minutes)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com