Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 29th. For Tuesday night, we get seven games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Joel Embiid: (10,200)
Jimmy Butler (wrist) will return to action, but Embiid is still an awesome play in this tremendous spot vs The Lakers, who have allowed the 6th most RPG, and 10th most points in the paint this season. (2.81 opponent +/-) In the 19 games Embiid has taken on an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or better this year, he has been dominate. (58.16 DK PPG) This will be his first meeting with The Lakers this season, but in his last three games against the purple and gold, Embiid is averaging 59.67 DK PPG, including a massive 90.75 DK point performance in his only visit to The Staples Center last season.
Embiid absolutely remembers this huge game and would definitely love to have another massive outing in front of The Laker faithful tonight. I am not expecting 90 DK points, but Embiid should easily surpass five times value in this high scoring contest (231 O/U game total), with a ceiling close to 70 DK points.
PF/C: Richaun Holmes: (4,600)
After missing four games with a foot injury, Holmes returned on Sunday, while Deandre Ayton (ankle) remained out. He didn’t start, but Holmes took full advantage of the rookie’s abscene, with a 12/10 double double and four blocks in 27 minutes vs The Lakers. (37.5 DK points) Ayton is not expected to play again tonight (doubtful) and starter or not, Holmes should log 25+ minutes vs The Spurs.
This matchup is a big downgrade from Sunday’s (SA is a -0.4 opponent +/-), but when Ayton, Isaiah Canaan (waived), T.J. Warren (out, ankle), Trevor Ariza (traded), and Tyson Chandler (waived, now with LAL) have all been off the court, Holmes has led The Suns with a great 1.23 DK PPM. This production and his projected playing time, sans Ayton, out trump any possible matchup for Holmes at this price. Another double double is certainly possible and I am expecting at least 25 DK points from the big man.
PF/C: Kenneth Faried: (6,300)
Faried and The Rockets have been a perfect match. As the starting center, with Clint Capela (thumb) out, Faried has scored 38 DK PPG, and helped Houston to three straight wins. Tonight, he will be at home again (40.25 DK PPG in these first two home games as a Rocket), playing against The Pelicans, who have allowed the 3rd most RPG in their last three games, with Anthony Davis (finger) out of the lineup. (2.01 opponent +/-)
AD will miss another game tonight and Faried should be all over the place in this up-tempo matchup. (NOLA is a 4.8 possession increase) He should notch his third consecutive double double and The Manimal is the best value play to attack from this Rockets’ team, that has the highest implied team total of the night. (122.25 points)
PG: Rajon Rondo: (6,700)
In his first two games back, with LeBron James (groin) and Lonzo Ball (ankle) out, Rondo has been huge for The Lakers. (40 DK PPG in L2) Both of these players will remain out tonight, plus, The Lakers will be without Kyle Kuzma (hip) which will further increase Rondo’s rates and minutes. (Rondo logged 42 minutes on Sunday with James, Ball, and Kuzma out, and he averages 1.1 DK PPM when all three of them are off the floor)
Rondo should play 35+ minutes and both of these clubs rank in the top seven pace this season. This is the perfect type of game environment for Rondo’s style of play. Plus, it may sound stupid, but this game will be nationally televised, which is always good news for Rondo’s numbers. He loves to play at his best when the whole world is watching, especially when the opponent is a strong team like The Sixers. Rondo should flirt with a triple double and will remain a core play for me, even though his price has increased $1,500 over these last two games.
PG/SG: James Harden: (13,600)
Even with Chris Paul back (25 minutes), Harden still played at an MVP level, scoring 71.75 DK points vs The Magic on Sunday. His usage was still extremely high (45.4%) and Paul is expected to stay in 20s again tonight. At some point, with both Paul and Eric Gordon (below) healthy, Harden has to regress, but tonight may not be the night, with The Rockets playing way up in pace vs The Pelicans. (1.21 opponent +/-, 4.8 possession increase, and he is averaging 62.4 DK PPG against them in two meetings this season) He isn’t the strongest value anymore and a better option for GPPs, but Harden’s ceiling is unmatched when he is at home. (5.7 more DK PPG at home this season and 74.39 in his L7 in HOU)
PG: Russell Westbrook: (10,600)
Westbrook is scoring 65.16 DK PPG in his last three and The Thunder have the 4th highest implied team total of the slate. (113.75 points) In the 28 games this season that The Thunder had an implied team total of 113 points or more, Westbrook is averaging 60.28 DK PPG.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (9,500)
Vuc is just underpriced for his recent production (50.36 DK PPG in L7) and The Thunder are currently a decent spot for centers. (1.46 opponent +/-)
PF/C: LaMarcus Aldridge: (8,700)
DeMar DeRozan (knee) is out again tonight and in these last two without him, Aldridge has been outstanding. (51.13 DK PPG) The Spurs are the biggest favorites of the night vs The Suns (-13), but if Aldridge ends up seeing a normal workload, he should feast on this Suns’ frontcourt. (3.17 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (8,600)
Holiday has led The Pelicans with 50.5 DK PPG in these last four without The Brow. They will also be without Julius Randle (ankle), Nikola Mirotic (calf), and E’Twaun Moore (rest). When all four of these players are off the court, Holiday supplies an elite 1.69 DK PPM. Chris Paul is back, which hurts this matchup for guards, but Holiday still has great upside in this high scoring affair.
SG/SF: Jimmy Butler: (6,900)
Butler is just too cheap for this type of game setting. When the O/U game total has been over 230 points this season, Butler is scoring 36.96 DK PPG, and The Lakers are a nice spot for SFs. (1.54 opponent +/-)
C: Jahill Okafor: (6,100)
Okafor has exceeded expectations at The Pelicans’ starting center with AD out (40 DK PPG) and he should have to log 30+, with Randle/Mirotic both on the shelf. Plus, The Rockets have been a very strong matchup for centers since Capela went down (2.49 opponent +/-) and Okafor scores 1.22 DK PPM in this current Pelicans’ situation. He should crush value at this price tag and Okafor needs to be used in both cash games and GPPs.
SF/PF: Cedi Osman: (5,200)
After some down games, Osman has taken his game to another level in his last three. (39.5 DK PPG) His usage has been higher at 23.7% and he is scoring 1.07 DK PPM during this time. Tonight, he goes against The Wizards, who are the 4th worst defense, and 6th fastest team in the league. (1.6 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Eric Gordon: (5,000)
Gordon has scored 30 DK PPG and logged 36.4 MPG in these past three, clearly showing us he is underpriced for this plus matchup vs The Pelicans. (1.7 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Alec Burks: (4,900)
Along with Osman, Burks has been a steady option in The Cavs’ last three games. (32.3 DK PPG and 29 MPG) The Wizards are weak at defending guards (1.23 opponent +/-) and in his first matchup vs Washington this season, Burks recorded 31.8 DK points.
PG/SG: Shabazz Napier: (4,900)
Last night, which was the second game since Dinwiddie got hurt, Napier was excellent in a tough spot vs The Celtics. (34 DK points) He has played 27.2 MPG compared to Russell’s 24 MPG in these last two without Dinwiddie and if this trend continues tonight, Napier should surpass five times value vs this bad Bulls’ defense. (1.1 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Bryn Forbes: (4,300)
Forbes has played 30+ minutes in three straight and is scoring 23.75 DK PPG in these last two without DeRozan. In over 30 minutes of work, Forbes should approach 25 DK points against a putrid Suns’ defense. (1.77 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: David Bertrans: (4,100)
Sunday vs The Wizards, Bertans played 28 minutes off the bench, and scored 29.25 DK points, with DeRozan sidelined. If given 25-30 minutes again, which is very possible if The Spurs blowout The Suns, Betrans should out produce this soft salary.
PF/C: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: (3,800)
RHJ was inserted into the starting five last night vs The Celtics and scored 33.25 DK points in 27.23 minutes. He is averaging 29 DK PPG in these last two and his usage was at 27.6% last night with the starting unit. Hollis-Jeffersons’ ball hog tendencies always make him a viable option if the playing time is decent (0.95 DK PPM) and we can expect 25-30 minutes for him vs The Bulls.
SF/PF: Michael Beasley: (3,800)
Beasley got the start for Kuzma on Sunday and tallied 28.5 DK points in 26.08 minutes vs The Suns. He should start again in place of Kuzma and log at least 25+ minutes vs The Sixers. Beasley produces an efficient 1.2 DK PPM as a Laker and in the two games he has logged 20+ minutes this season, he is scoring 24.63 DK PPG. At this near minimum price, Beasley is a no brainer value play for this seven game slate.
SF/PF: Darius Miller: (3,700)
With Moore, AD, Randle, and Mirotic all out, Miller should start at PF, and play heavy minutes. Two games ago, in this same exact situation, Miller supplied a season best 36.75 DK points across 38.06 minutes in a tough spot vs The Thunder. (2nd in defensive efficiency) He scores right under one DK PPM (0.99) when all four of these players are missing and with 35+ minutes of action, Miller should top 20 DK points, with decent upside.
PF/C: Chieck Diallo: (3,200)
His role is far less secure than Miller, but in that game vs The Thunder this past Thursday, Dillao logged 23 minutes off the bench. (24.5 DK points) He is a solid fantasy player (1.04 DK PPM) and if he can see close to 20 minutes, you have to expect at least five times from value from Dillao vs The Rockets, who have been very soft inside without Capela. (1.03 opponent +/-)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com