What’s up everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 30th.Tonight, we get a full slate, with eight games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,900)
With Jamal Murray (ankle) out again and not many expensive options to pay up for, Jokic is without a doubt the top overall play. He is scoring 61.4 DK PPG in his last four and in these first two games without Murray, Jokic has led The Nuggets in usage (31.5%), and in assist percentage. (31%) He will be on the road tonight, which is always a downgrade for The Joker (-8.2 DK PPG), but I think this great matchup vs The Pelicans outweighs the concerns with his home/away splits. With Anthony Davis out (finger) , New Orleans has been the 4th worst defense in the league, and is allowing the 3rd most RPG in their past three games. (2.06 opponent +/-)
This game has the second highest O/U game total of Wednesday’s seven (227 points) and Jokic is averaging 49.58 DK PPG in the 24 Nuggets’ games that he has faced an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or better this season. Furthermore, this is a huge pace bump for Denver (5.4 possessions) and in 27 games that Jokic has seen a possession increase of 2.0 or more, he is producing 51.51 DK PPG. He should bounce back with 55+ DK points after his subpar showing vs The Grizzlies on Monday. (41.25 DK points)
C: Jahill Okafor: (6,600)
I never really saw this coming, but the resurgence of Okafor is very real, and he will be a great fantasy option until The Brow returns. Last night, in 36.5 minutes of action, the former Duke Blue Devil posted a 27/12 double double in a huge road win over The Rockets. (48.5 DK points) This was his fourth double double in his last five games and in those five without AD, Okafor is supplying 41.75 DK PPG as The Pelicans’ starting center. Along with AD, Elfird Payton (ankle), E’Twaun Moore (rest), Julius Randle (ankle), and Nikola Mirotic (calf) will all be out for The Pelicans
Okafor will have to log 30+ minutes tonight vs The Nuggets and he is scoring 1.2 DK PPM when all five of these hurt Pelicans are off the floor. Denver is currently rating as a strong matchup for centers (2.45 opponent +/-) and Okafor should have no issues exceeding five times value again on Wednesday night. Right now, he is an extremely tough player to fade.
SF/PF: Mario Hezonja: (3,500)
In these last two games with Emmanuel Muiday (shoulder) out and Enes Kanter buried in the back of the bench (DNP CP in L3), Hezonja has chipped in with 22.88 DK PPG off the bench. After not playing in two straight games, Hezonja has logged 28 MPG in these past two, which were both competitive contests. (both decided by single digits) Anything can happen with this Knicks’ rotation under HC David Fizdale, but with Frank Ntilikina (groin) also out, Hezonja should stay in this role for at least the next few games.
He scores 0.84 DK PPM when Mudiay, Ntilikina, and Kanter are all off the floor and in 25-30 minutes, Hezonja should easily generate six to eight times value vs The Mavs, particularly when you factor in that this game will be at home in MSG. (1.6 more DK PPG this season) In the all the games he has cracked 20 minutes this season (14), Hezonja is averaging 24.06 DK PPG.
PG/SG: Terry Rozier: (6,100)
Kyrie Irving (hip) is expected to miss his second straight game, which will keep Rozier as The Celtics’ starting PG vs The Hornets. He is averaging 42.88 DK PPG in the two most recent contests without Irving and overall, in the seven games that Uncle Drew has missed this season, Rozier is averaging 33.21 DK PPG. The Hornets are a plus spot for PGs (1.53 opponent +/-) and Rozier will be at home, where he has been slightly more productive this season. (1.6 more DK PPG)
Plus, even in a reserve role, with Irving healthy, Rozier has been successful against Charlotte this year. (26.3 DK PPG in only 22.3 MPG in two meetings, which is a 1.18 DK PPM average) $6,100 is a very reasonable price for Scary Terry and he is an excellent combination of safety and upside.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (10,600)
KAT’s matchup vs The Grizzlies isn’t the greatest (1.17 opponent +/-), but he will be at home (4.8 more DK PPG), and The Wolves will be without the services of Jeff Teague (foot), Robert Covington (knee), and most likely Derick Rose. (ankle, listed as questionable, but unlikely to play) Towns has scored 53.5 DK PPG in these past two without these three players and is averaging a team high 1.7 DK PPM when they are all off the floor. (+5.9% usage) With very few high end options to attack tonight, I think KAT’s high ceiling with The Wolves depleted is worth considering.
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (8,900)
Holiday has been spectacular in these last five without AD (50.7 DK PPG) and is averaging 42.4 DK PPG across two meetings vs The Nuggets this season. When all five of those injured Pelicans are off the floor, Holiday leads the team with an elite 1.56 DK PPM, and he is a must play in my eyes.
PG: Damain Lillard: (8,500)
Prior to the blowout win over The Suns this past Thursday (only 29 minutes), Lillard was scoring 47.75 DK PPG in his last seven. He was rested on Saturday and will be a full go for tonight’s tilt vs The Jazz. They are a tough defense as a whole (4th in efficiency), but slightly struggle with opposing PGs. (1.45 opponent +/-) This game has a very small spread of 1.5 points, in favor of Portland, and when the spread has been under five points this season, Lillard has been very consistent. (44.99 DK PPG)
PG/SG: Donvan Mitchell: (8,400)
Even with Ricky Rubio back in the mix, Mitchell has been tremendous as of late. (42.75 DK PPG) He has struggled vs The Blazers this season (33.2 DK PPG in three games), but I think Mitchell is still viable given the tight expected game script.
PG: Trae Young: (7,400)
His price is definitely getting up there, but Young has been excellent in his last two (45.75 DK PPG) and this Hawks Kings game should be very high scoring (both clubs in the top five in pace), hence its slate high O/U game total. (236.5 points) This is the perfect setting for Young and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the rookie surpassed 40 DK points for the third straight contest. (SAC is a 1.98 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Al Horford: (7,000)
Horford has notched three double doubles in a row (47.7 DK PPG) and this matchup vs The Hornets is in his favor. (1.55 opponent +/-) Also, he sees a boost with Irving out (+1.3% usage and +8.2% assist) and with this game being in Boston. (6.5 more DK PPG)
C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (6,100)
WCS is never my favorite play, but he is absolutely viable at home (8.1 more DK PPG this season) vs The Hawks. (1.95 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Marcus Morris: (5,400)
Morris is a nice mid-tier value with Irving out (27.5 DK PPG in seven without Irving), that should produce five to six times value.
PG/SG: Jerryd Bayless: (5,000)
Bayless has topped 30 DK points in four straight games. With Rose and Teague expected to be out again, Bayless will start, and should out produce his salary, even if this matchup is ugly. (MEM is 0.97 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Trey Burke: (4,800)
Burke was the chalk the other night, so this a nice chance to attack him in GPPs. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) He should start again and there is always a chance he could log 30+ minutes, with The Knicks down Mudiay and Ntilikina. When they are both off the floor, Burkes generates 0.93 DK PPM.
SG/SF: Jaylen Brown: (4,700)
Brown’s floor is shakier than Morris’, but he has been very effective when Irving has been out of the lineup. (29.57 DK PPG) He is averaging 33 DK PPG in the last two without The All-Star PG.
C: Alex Len: (4,500)
Len isn’t for the faint of heart, but he has produced 30.8 DK PPG in his last three, and the matchup is outstanding vs The Kings. (2.77 opponent +/-) He is always low owned and a worthwhile risk in GPPs. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
SF/PF: Darius Miller: (3,800)
Miller should start again at PF with The Pelicans very beat up and in the two games New Orleans has been wihtout Randle, AD, Mirotic, and Moore, he is supplying 32.75 DK PPG in 39.1 MPG. With this type of playing time (40.14 minutes last night), Miller is the strongest value of this seven game slate.
PG/SG: Frank Jackson: (3,400)
Jackson drew the start last night at PG and scored 21.25 DK points in the win over The Rockets. He only logged 23 minutes, so the floor is low, but he scores a serviceable 0.8 DK PPM with all these players missing, and the rookie is a decent target if given another start.
PG/SG: Tim Frazier: (3,200)
Jackson started over him last night, but Frazier was the more productive player. In only 20 minutes of work, Frazier put up a double double of 32 DK points. He scores 0.84 DK PPM with Randle, AD, Mirotic, Payton, and Moore off the court, and The Pelicans need his playmaking ability right now. The reward out weighs the risk at this price and I think Frazier is another Pelicans punt worth considering in all formats.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com