gravatar

DraftKings NBA Picks – January 30th

What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for January 30th, 2018. Tonight, we get a full slate with nine games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com

Top Pick:

PG/SG: Lou Williams: (8,200) Tonight, Lou Will is going have to do as much as he possibly can offensively for The Clippers. I’m sure you already know, but PF Blake Griffin has been traded to DET, along with center Willie Reed and forward Brice Johnson. None of the three new players The Clippers received will play tonight, so this Clippers team is going to be very thin. On top of not having their new players, they will also be without Austin Rivers (ankle), Patrick Beverly (knee), Jawun Evans (abs), and possibly Danilo Gallinari. (hip, questionable)

It sounds like there is a good chance Galo returns, but even with him in, Williams should still lead this team in usage, with him posting a high 33% usage rate in the 136 minutes he has logged without the other six players this season. Obviously, there are no full games without all these players, but there is no doubt in my mind Clippers’ Head Coach Doc Rivers’ game plan is going to revolve around Williams and Deandre Jordan. (below) His matchup is on the difficult side vs The Blazers (1.2 opponent +/-), but with this kind of usage in a home game that has a small spread of only 2.5 points, Williams should get us over 40 DK points. The $8,200 price tag is correct, but Williams, as always, has a massive ceiling and I will be rostering him with full confidence on Tuesday night.

Value Picks:

SG/SF: Stanley Johnson: (3,900) With SF Tobias Harris and SG Avery Bradley dealt to LA for PF Blake Griffin, Johnson instantly should have a much bigger role for The Pistons for the rest of the season. Griffin won’t be available tonight and Johnson should start and play high minutes with this team thin until their newly acquired players arrive. I am expecting 35-40 minutes for Johnson and even though he isn’t the greatest fantasy player (0.66 DK PPM), he should be able to exceed five times value in this awesome matchup vs The Cavs. He just scored 30 DK points on them this past Sunday in 28 minutes of work. As we all know, this defense is and has been a mess all season.

The Cavs rank dead last in defensive efficiency and they are currently representing a ridiculously high opponent +/- of 7.48 points for starting SGs, which is the best overall matchup for any player in action on Tuesday night. His usage jumps up 4.7% with the three players who got traded and Reggie Jackson (ankle) off the floor this season. We can’t expect an explosion, but Johnson should score roughly 25 DK points in this situation, which would be an excellent 6.4 value return at his current price. This soft price tag isn’t going to last long and Stanley is an elite value play that needs to be take advantage of in all formats.

SF/PF: Trey Lyles: (5,100) Lyles should enter the starting five for The Nuggets tonight, with PF Mason Plumlee already ruled out with a calf injury he suffered in last night’s loss to The Celtics. Even with Plumlee playing close to a full workload (28 minutes), Lyles was still great last night off the bench, dropping 36.75 DK points in only 26 minutes, while shooting 4/7 from three. This was the third consecutive game that he has topped 30 DK points.

There hasn’t been any full games without Plumlee and PF Paul Milsap (wrist) this season, but with both of these bigs off the court, Lyles is scoring 1.07 DK PPM and 38.5 DK points per 36 minutes. I don’t think we will see 36 minutes for him, but he should play close to 30 minutes with a starting role tonight vs The Spurs. Going against a Greg Poppovich coached defense is never ideal (1.62 opponent +/-), but is simply too cheap for the role he should have with Plumlee out. He is a very underrated player and I think we see Lyles top 30 DK points for the fourth straight game, even though the matchup isn’t perfect.

C: Deandre Jordan: (6,800) It’s hard not like Jordan tonight, with none of his new teammates from DET available and most importantly, Blake Griffin out of the picture. Even if we count SF Danilo Gallinari in (questionable, hip), Jordan still sees all his rates go up, with Griffin, Rivers (heel), Beverly (knee), Reed (traded),  Johnson (traded) and Jawun Evans (abs) all off the court. In the minutes he has played without these players, his usage rises 4.4%, his rebound percentage 3.1%, and he is scoring 46 DK points per 36 minutes. Furthermore, he is averaging 40 DK PPG in the four games he has played without Griffin, Beverly, and Rivers this season.

He only costs $6,800, putting his five times value mark at 34 DK points, which obviously possible with him averaging 35.1 DK PPG this year. When you factor in the rate bumps he will see, plus this being a strong matchup vs The Blazers (3.71 opponent +/-), Jordan should easily notch a double double and has a really strong chance of topping 40 DK points. He is a steal at only $6,800 and is lock for me in all formats tonight.

Also Consider: Anthony Tolliver (should start at PF. Scored 33.75 DK points in 40 minutes last game, which was against his same opponent tonight in The Cavs. He should play similar minutes tonight and is viable in all formats at only $4,500, in the gorgeous matchup vs The Cavs, that is a 7.3 opponent +/-), Wesley Johnson (should have to log close to 40 minutes and will also play some time at the four, but he is a better play if Galo sits), Tyrone Wallace (same goes for Wallace), Nikola Jokic (still too cheap at $8,500. He is averaging 48 DK PPG over his last eight), Reggie Bullock (should start and play as much as possible. 30.25 DK points in 30.18 minutes vs The Cavs Sunday), LaMarcus Aldridge (been worse at 28.5 DK PPG in his past two, but is always a target as this team’s leader in usage), Bradley Beal (huge let down last game at 29.25 DK points, but he is back home and Wall is out. He scores 3.9 more DK points a game at home and his usage goes up 4.2% without Wall. Also, the matchup is strong vs The Thunder with Andre Roberson done for the year), Jrue Holiday (48.75 DK points on a 23.5% usage without Cousins on Sunday), Mario Hezonja (if he starts for Gordon he would be a strong value at only $4,500), and  Elfrid Payton (better for GPPs, but his usage goes up a team high 5.5% with Aaron Gordan, Nikola Vucevic, Jon Isaac, and Terrence Ross all off the court, helping him score 43 DK points per 36 minutes. This game should be fast paced vs Houston, which is a plus for him, but the blowout concerns are very real with The Rockets favored by 12.5 points on their home floor).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *