How’s it going everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 31st. Tonight, we get a nice sized slate for a Thursday night, with six games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounnmpo: (10,600)
Tonight, The Bucks and Raptors face off against each other for the 4th and final time of the season. In the two of those he was active for, Antetokounmpo rose to occasion of playing against one of the top rated defenses in The NBA (TOR is 8th in efficiency), scoring 64.1 DK PPG. He has been great in his last four (60.5 DK PPG) and this game is expected to be high scoring (232 points), and tight. (TOR -3)
When the total has been north of 220 points this season, Giannis is averaging 57.6 DK PPG, and when the spread has been under ten, he is contributing 54.78 DK PPG. It is a slight hit that this contest is on the road (-3.3 DK PPG this season), but The Greek Freak is just too cheap for this type of game setting. He should score 55+ DK points, with a ceiling close to 70.
PF/C: Draymond Green: (6,200)
This is just a crazy price from Green. I understand the logic that Demarcus Cousins could hurt Green’s numbers, but it hasn’t yet. In his first four with Boogie, Green is averaging 33.94 DK PPG, including a blowout win over The Lakers, where he was only needed for 22.3 minutes. (24.75 DK points) Tonight, The Warriors will be at home, which is always scary due to blowout risk, but they will be playing The Sixers, who have won 12 of their last 13 games.
This game should stay competitive enough that Green and The Warriors’ starters see their usual minutes (GSW -9.5), and in the seven home games that Golden State has been favored by single digits this season, Chubs is supplying 38 DK PPG. Regardless of the matchup (PHI is a 0.9 opponent +/-), Green is an excellent value that gives you an piece of The Warriors, and their slate high implied team total. (125 points, highest of the night by 8.5 points)
PG/SG: Reggie Jackson: (4,700)
The Pistons have relied on Jackson more as of late. He has exceeded 30 minutes in three straight games and logged 35.86 MPG in his last two. During this three game stretch, he has generated 33.08 DK PPG, but has been priced under $5,000 for each game. Tonight is the same case, with Jackson at only $4,700 vs The Mavs. Dallas is a positive spot for PGs (1.16 opponent +/-) and in Detroit’s first matchup with them this season, Jackson scored 30.3 DK points in 35.2 minutes.
Additionally, this tilt will be at home in Detroit, where Jackson is producing 2.1 more DK PPG this year. He is clearly underpriced for tonight and would receive a further boost to his value, if Reggie Bullock (questionable, ankle) misses his second straight game. (Jackson scored 39.75 DK points in 37 minutes Tuesday vs The Bucks without Bullock and receives 1.7% usage increase when the SF is off the floor)
PG/SG: Patrick Beverly: (5,300)
Beverly is on a serious roll right now. He has picked up a double double in each of his last two (44 DK PPG) and is averaging 35.13 DK PPG in these last six with Danilo Gallinari (back) out. Galo has officially been ruled out for the 7th consecutive game, which will keep Beverly in a 35-40 minute role tonight vs The Lakers. (36.85 MPG in L6) They play at the 3rd fastest pace this season (2.1 possession increase) and have surrendered the 5th most steals per game.
We saw Monday vs The Hawks how well Beverly can do when playing up in pace against a turnover prone team (41 DK points, including three steals. ATL ranks 1st pace and 1st in steals allowed) and tonight, Beverly should surpass five times value again, with solid upside, depending on how many steals he can rack up, or if he can tally another double double. (LA allows the 6th most RPG)
C: Joel Embiid: (10,100)
Embiid is averaging 57.3 DK PPG in his last six and The Warriors have been poor at defending centers all season. (2.48 opponent +/-) He is scoring 57.86 DK PPG when going against an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or better this season (20 games) and 58.67 DK PPG when the O/U game total has been 235 points or more. Assuming Philly keeps up with The Warriors, Embiid should retain at least five times value, with obvious upside.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (9,500)
Vuc has topped 50 DK points in four of his last five games, but costs under $10,000. The Pacers are currently rating well for centers (2.03 opponent +/-) and Vuc has scored 47.88 DK PPG when the matchup is 2.0 points or greater in terms of opponent +/-.
SF/PF: Kawhi Leonard: (9,400)
Since being rested for over a week, Leonard has scored over 50 DK points in back to back games. He has played well against The Bucks since joining The Raptors (50.9 DK PPG) and always steps up when the game is close. (50.25 DK PPG this season when the spread is under five)
SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (9,100)
KD has been better at home this season (3.3 more DK PPG) and is always viable when the game isn’t projected to be a blowout. (50.52 DK PPG when the spread is under ten this season)
PG/SG: Steph Curry: (8,900)
Curry is better on the road (-2.2 DK PPG at home this season), opposed to Durant, but he is also always viable if The Warriors are in a competitive setting. (46.95 DK PPG when the spread is under ten)
SF/PF: Tobias Harris: (8,500)
Harris has benefited from Gallo being out (44.79 DK PPG in L6) and when playing up in pace. (40.17 DK PPG when the pace increase has been 2.0 possessions or more this season. LAL is 2.1)
PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (8,400)
With many other safer options, I will reserve Russell for GPPs, but he is an awesome target in that format. He just torched The Bulls for 52.5 DK points on Tuesday and has gone over 50 DK points in five of his last eight. Lastly, The Spurs have struggled all year against PGs (2.32 opponent), with Dejounte Murray (knee) on the sidelines.
C: Andre Drummond: (8,100)
Similar to Jackson, The Pistons’ coaching staff has given Drummond more minutes recently (49.25 DK PPG and 36.6 MPG in L2) and tonight he faces The Mavs (1.86 opponent +/-), at home, which has been huge for the big man. (6.9 more DK PPG this season)
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (7,200)
Lou Will, as always, has been extremely productive (44 DK PPG in L4) and he loves playing against The Lakers. (38.16 DK PPG in L8 vs LAL)
PG: Rajon Rondo: (7,000)
Rondo has let me down in these last two (30.12 DK PPG), but he will always have a ceiling to attack if LeBron James (groin) and Lonzo Ball (ankle) are out. Plus, this game is against The Clippers, which means Rondo will be playing against his former coach Doc Rivers. (32.36 DK PPG in L7 vs LAC)
PF/C: Serge Ibaka: (6,100)
Ibaka has been solid in these last two with Leonard back (32.38 DK PPG) and in three matchups vs The Bucks this season, Ibaka is averaging 45 DK PPG.
PG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (5,500) Ever since he returned and there was a ton of rumors about The Mavs shopping him around the league, DSJ has been playing his best basketball of the season. (35.6 DK PPG in L4) With over 30 minutes in each of the three games before last night’s blowout vs The Knicks (50 DK points in 28 minutes), it seems that The Mavs may be showcasing Smith Jr. right now, and I think he needs to be considered if his price is under $6,000. UPDATE: Luka Doncic is now doubtful with a sore ankle. Assuming he sits, DSJ will be a lock at this price. With a 2.5% usage increase and a huge 8.2% assist percentage bump, Smith Jr. is scoring 1.05 DK PPM when Doncic is off the court. He has a better chance to play, but Deandre Jordan is also questionable with an illness. When both of them are missing, DSJ provides 1.17 DK PPM. UPDATE: DSJ, Jordan, and Wesley Matthews are all expected to be traded to The Knicks for Kristapas Porzingis. With Doncic and J.J. Barea (achilles) out on top of these three players being traded, Jalen Brunson should start at PG and is a must play at only $3,400. He scores an effective 1.03 DK PPM when all five of these players are off the floor. Dwight Powell and Dorian Finney-Smith should also start, and are great punts, that should play a ton. Powell in particular is a outstanding play. Without these five Mavs, he scores 1.24 DK PPM. Last, but not least, Harrison Barnes should lead this offense in usage. He has only played ten total minutes without these five this season, but is obviously the best offensive player left on this roster. He only costs $5,000 and should play 35+.
C: Ivica Zubac: (5,100)
At a cheaper price, everyone will be going to JaVale McGee (below), which I agree with in cash games, but Zubac is the perfect pivot for GPPs. After his 52.5 DK point explosion vs The Suns, he only scored 13 DK points vs The Sixers on Tuesday. Now, if confirmed the starter again, Zubac has a great chance to redeem himself, vs The Clippers, who are god awful at defending centers. (4.33 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Terrence Ross: (4,900)
There is no reason why Ross’ price should have dropped under 5,000. At this price he only needs 24.5 DK points to meet five times value, which is easily possible, with him scoring 28.35 DK PPG in his last 12.
C: JaVale McGee: (4,500)
McGee went off for 42.5 DK points vs The Sixers on Tuesday and he should play 20+ minutes off the bench vs The Clippers, which is the best possible matchup for a player tonight. (4.37 opponent +/-) The floor is somewhat shaky, but McGee should provide value in this spot.
PF/C: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: (4,200)
Starter or not, RHJ has been a solid fantasy punt in his last three (27.6 DK PPG) and this matchup vs The Spurs is decent. (1.07 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Shia Gilgeous-Alexander: (4,000)
SGA has chipped in with 26.5 DK PPG in these last two and he could be in line for heavy minutes if Avery Bradley (questionable, knee) was forced to sit.
SG/SF: Andre Iguodala: (3,900)
Iggy has scored 23.57 DK PPG in his last seven, but his price has stayed at $3,900 during this entire stretch. When the O/U game total has been 240 or higher, Iguodala is averaging 22.75 DK PPG this season.
SG: Avery Bradley: (3,700)
If Bradley is a full go, he is a solid punt. In these last six without Gallo, AB is averaging 23.78 DK PPG.
SG/SF: Luke Kennard: (3,800)
Kennard will be viable if Bullock is out. With him sitting on Tuesday, Kennard scored 28 DK points in 28 minutes off the bench vs The Bucks. He is averaging 22.12 DK PPG in the last four he has logged over 20 minutes.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com