Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for January 6th, 2018. Tonight’s slate is a tougher slate with six games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: Demarcus Cousins: (10,800) Boogie struggled his last time out with foul trouble and playing down in pace vs The Jazz on Wednesday night (40.75 DK points), but before this he was on a tear averaging 68 DK points a game in his prior three starts. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, which he did in his first two meetings vs The Wolves this season, Cousins should approach 40 minutes tonight in this great game environment. This Pelicans Wolves game is the best game of the slate to target with its O/U game total of 218.5 points and spread of only one point in favor of The Wolves.
More importantly, this is a tremendous matchup for Cousins going against this Wolves defense that has struggled defending centers all season. They currently rate as a very high opponent +/- of 6.31 points, which is the best matchup for any big man in action tonight. He is averaging 57.1 DK points against them this season and I think we see him meet five times value with 60+ DK point upside tonight. Even as the second highest priced player on the board, Cousins is one of the strongest point per dollar plays of this slate and is the player I want to build around on Saturday night.
PF/C: Skal Labissere: (3,500) Skal drew the start on Tuesday and was very productive with the starting five, posting a double double of 17 points and 15 rebounds vs The Hornets. (36.25 DK points) He did play in garbage time, but he logged 28 minutes in this game, which is the most minutes he has played in over two months. Kings’ Head Coach Dave Joerger’s rotations are always tough to trust, but assuming Labissere start again after his effective game on Tuesday, he should log close to 25 minutes tonight vs The Nuggets.
This isn’t a good matchup (0.62 opponent +/-), but he is scoring 0.93 DK points per minute this season, and with 20+ minutes, Labissere should get us 20-25 DK points, with him averaging 21.5 DK points in his two games against Denver this season. He is simply too cheap as a starter and is one of the better punts of this slate that is lacking strong cheap options.
SF/PF: Trey Lyles: (5,600) Last night, Lyles had a career night, scoring 26 points, seven rebounds, two steals, and one assist in 28 minutes off the bench in an ugly matchup vs The Jazz. (42.25 DK points) In this game he saw a 32.7% usage rate which is a large increase from 20.1% average for the season. He has been extremely consistent as The Nuggets primary big off the bench with PF Paul Milsap (wrist) out, averaging 30 DK points and 28.7 minutes over his last 12 games. He has been at his best as of late, crushing value, averaging 37 DK points in his last four games.
It’s stupid they don’t just let him start over Mason Plumlee, but either way, Lyles should exceed five times value for the eighth straight game tonight vs The Kings, who have allowed the 10th most DK points to PFs this season. (3.47 opponent +/-) He has been scoring 1.04 DK points per minute over the last month and with roughly 30 minutes, Lyles should score 25-30 DK points with nice upside, if his usage is high like last night. The price tag has hit it’s season peak, but he is still too cheap and is a value play that may get overlooked because of the rise in his salary. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (5,200) I am not fond of targeting multiple bench players, but that is the nature of this slate unless some value opens tonight close to lock. Its odd, because we all know Pacers’ starting center Myles Turner is the more talented player, but Sabonis has been out playing him recently and The Pacers’ coaching staff has recognized this giving him more minutes over Turner. In these last three games Sabonis is averaging 30 minutes compared to Turner who is only averaging 22.2.
As expected, Sabonis has taken advantage of the extended playing time, averaging 30 DK points during this time. If the minutes continue, he should be able to get us five to six times value going against a Bulls’ front court that is currently rating at a solid opponent +/- of 2.21 points. There is risk involved here with him coming off the bench, but he is still a positive value at this price point that can be considered in all formats if no new injury news comes up that would open up some value.
Also Consider: Kris Dunn (as I touched on it yesterday, Dunn was in a good spot to bounce back last night and he did exactly that, torching The Mavs for 56 DK points in the win. The matchup vs The Pacers isn’t ideal, but he is averaging 42 DK points over his last six games, even when you include his bad game vs The Raptors on Wednesday night), Tyus Jones (he has sucked, but you know the minutes will be there and this is a strong matchup with The Pelicans rating as a 5.49 opponent +/- for starting PGs), Eric Gordon (hard to ignore that he is averaging 44.25 DK points and seeing usage over 30% in these two games without Harden, but this is a tough spot vs Avery Bradley and The Pistons. I still like Gordon and think he has a nice chance of getting us value, but I wouldn’t expect another 50+ game from him), Gerald Green (same goes for Green. I like him still, but this is a tougher matchup vs The Pistons. He could still meet value, but it is hard to expect another explosion), Ish Smith, Elfrid Payton (36.1 DK points over his last five games and is playing The Cavs who have struggled defending PGs and now have Isaiah Thomas back, who we all know isn’t improving their defense), Clint Capela (usage up without Harden and they will need his size vs Drummond), Avery Bradley (really let me down last night, but this is a nice bounce back spot playing up in pace vs The Rockets who are really bad at defending two guards. They are a current opponent +/- of 5.73 points), Lance Stephenson (if Oladipo remains out), and Bismack Biyombo (should be really low owned after his bad game vs The Rockets).