Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 7th. For Monday night, we get eight games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG/SG: James Harden: (12,000)
Harden struggled on Saturday night (57.75 DK points vs The Blazers), but I think we have to put this in the past and go right back to him on Monday. Both Chris Paul (hamstring) and Eric Gordon (knee) will still be out and on Saturday night, even though the end result wasn’t what we wanted, Harden still saw an insane 57.5% usage rate. With this game included, he is averaging an elite 71 DK PPG and a 47.9% usage rate, with both Gordon and Paul on the shelf. (1.75 DK PPM)
For Monday, his matchup isn’t perfect (DEN is 9th in efficiency), but he will be back at home, which has been a notable difference for Harden this season. (4.4 more DK PPG) Plus, coming off a down game, I am sure Harden will be very motivated to bounce back. He has vocally expressed how he is chasing another MVP and there’s no way Harden goes down to The Nuggets without a massive fight In front of his home crowd. (HOU -1) He should rebound with a minimum of 60 DK points and I will be continuing to attack Harden’s league best ceiling until Gordon returns.
SG/SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic: (5,300)
Saturday night, Bogdanovic started for the injured Iman Shumpert (finger), and scored 42 DK points across 35 minutes in the loss to The Warriors. The 35 minutes was a big jump from his season average (27.6 MPG) and even though he was playing with the starters, Bogdanovic still posted a 24.9% usage rate. Shumpert has already been ruled out for Monday and Bogdanovic is now averaging 33.24 DK PPG in the eight Shump has sat this season.
Overall, he is scoring 34.65 DK PPG in his last five. Bogdanovic will start again and is looking at roughly 35 minutes, even if Marvin Bagley (questionable, knee) makes his return. The Magic are a solid defense (14th in efficiency), but no matter the matchup, you are locking in Bogey at this ridiculous price. (was $5,800 just this past Thursday)
PG/SG: Shabazz Napier: (3,400)
Shabazz has found himself a nice role in this Nets’ rotation, with the team dealing with mutiple injuries. (Caris LeVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Allen Crabbe, and Dzanan Musa are all out) In these last three games, with all these players out, Napier has scored 22.8 DK PPG in 24.6 MPG off the bench. Now, for tonight, all of these four players will still be sidelined, plus, The Nets will also be without DeMaree Carroll (knee), and Joe Harris. (ankle) Brooklyn is going to be extremely thin and Napier could start in place of Harris. Even if Spencer Dinwiddie starts over him, Napier is still going to play at least 30 minutes vs The Celtics.
The team hasn’t played enough without these six players to guess what Napier’s rates will be like, but we have to expect an uptick in all of them. For the season, he is scoring 0.97 DK PPM, and with heavy playing time, Napier is going crush this near minimum price tag for at least 25 points, with 40+ upside. In the lone game he played over 30 minutes this season, Napier erupted for 51 DK points vs The Bucks. Point per dollar, he is the best value of the night and a must play in all formats.
C: Deandre Jordan: (6,100)
Jordan is very hit or miss, with scores of 24 and 41.25 DK points in his last two games, but he is very much worth the risk tonight vs The Lakers. He is only $6,100, but is averaging 34.8 DK PPG this season, and will be on his home floor, where he is scoring 3.8 more DK PPG. (36.9 DK PPG) Plus, The Lakers are a great matchup for centers, allowing the 9th most RPG and playing at the 3rd fastest pace.
They are a current opponent +/- of 2.59 points and when DJ has gone against an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or greater at home this season, he is supplying 38.6 DK PPG, which would be an outstanding 6.3 value return at his price for tonight. The Mavs have the second highest implied team total of Monday and Jordan is a very strong value play.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,600)
For a little bit more, Harden is the better target, but AD is still a great play in his own right. He is scoring 1.66 DK PPM in his last seven games and this matchup vs The Grizzlies isn’t that bad at the moment. (1.13 opponent +/-) But, the most important part is that he will be at home, where he is averaging 68.5 DK PPG in his last four. (4.6 more DK PPG this season)
C: Nikola Vucevic: (9,500)
Vuc exploded for 63 DK points vs The Clippers yesterday and his matchup tonight is just as strong, vs The Kings, who are 2nd in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency, and giving up the most RPG. (3.17 opponent +/-) In the eight games he has taken on an opponent +/- of at least 2.0 points, Vuc is averaging 44.9 DK PPG.
PF/C: Blake Griffin: (8,500)
Griffin has become the focal point of The Pistons’ offense, garnering a 32.5% usage rate in their last three games (51.58 DK PPG), compared to his 29.7% average for the season. (44.13 DK PPG) This seems to be by design and his matchup is decent vs The Spurs. (19th in defensive efficiency)
C: Jusuf Nurkic: (8,000)
Nurkic’s price is tied for a season high, but he has been incredible (57.6 DK PPG) and is playing against The Knicks, who are the second worst defense in the league. (2.77 opponent +/-)
C: Clint Capela: (7,500)
Capela has hauled in 20+ rebounds in back to back games (55.5 DK PPG) and tonight, his matchup vs The Nuggets is awesome (2.76 opponent +/-), but there is always foul concerns vs Nikola Jokic.
PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (7,300)
D Loading is balling right now (44.7 DK PPG in L4) and his rates/minutes should both jump in this current situation. I do worry about a blowout effecting him (BOS -10.5), but Russell should score at least 30 DK points, with 50+ DK point upside, if they can keep this game somewhat close.
SG/SF: Buddy Hield: (7,100)
Hield is hot right now (43.2 DK PPG in L3) and The Magic are weak against SGs. (2.25 opponent +/-) In this strong of a spot, Hield should continue this run, and top 35 DK points.
PG/SG: Spencer Dinwiddie: (5,800)
Dinwiddie has struggled (21.3 DK PPG L3), but by default, he should play a huge role with The Nets very beat up. It’s up in the air if he or Napier will start for Harris, but in either scenario, Dinwiddie is in line for at least 30 minutes, and a high usage rate.
C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (5,700)
WCS scored 44.25 DK points vs The Warriors in his last game, but his price has continued to drop, from $7,200 to start to month, to only $5,700 for tonight. He should retain five times value, in this positive matchup vs The Magic (1.36 opponent), on his home court, where he has produced a massive 8.9 more DK PPG this season. (36.2 DK PPG)
SG/SF: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: (5,700)
If Kyle Kuzma (questionable, back) is out again and The Lakers go small with KCP starting, he will be viable. In the three prior to yesterday, when he didn’t start for Kuz, KCP was playing great. (36 DK PPG)
PG/SG: Derrick White: (5,000)
White has been huge for The Spurs in their last five (30.8 DK PPG) and his usage should rise, with Rudy Gay (wrist) out. When Gay has been missing, White has received a 2.9% usage increase.
SF/PF: Neman Bjelica: (4,800)
If Bagley is out again, Bjelica will be a very strong play. He has logged over 30 minutes in these past three without Bagley. (34.9 DK PPG)
SG/SF: Gerald Green: (3,900)
Green’s role has grown with Gordon out. In these last three games, he is playing 27.7 MPG and producing 24.75 DK PPG. Like Harden, after two great games, Green’s numbers went down vs The Blazers (16.5 DK points), cutting his price $400 for Monday. He is now underpriced for his curent role and a decent punt at only $3,900.
SF/PF: Rodions Kurucs: (3,500)
Kurucs will have to play 30+ minutes this evening. He score 0.85 DK PPM and in the three games he has seen over 30 minutes this season, Kurucs has supplied a great 36.25 DK PPG.
PF/C: Kenneth Faried: (3,300)
Faried hasn’t played a minute since December 29th, but in that game, The Nets were also down two front-court players. In that loss to The Bucks, Ed Davis was rested and Hollis Jefferson only logged three minutes before getting hurt. This resulted in Faried playing a season high 27 minutes and posting a 21/10 double double of 36.5 DK points. He scores 1.12 DK PPM and if he ends up with 15-20 minutes, Faried would obviously out perform his cheap salary. Napier and Kurcus are much safer, given there is a chance Faired might not even play, but if he does, The Manimal has a very intriguing ceiling for GPPs. (0-1% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com