Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 8th. For Tuesday night, we get eight games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Joel Embiid: (11,000)
Jimmy Butler will be back, but Embiid should still have a big night vs this horrible Wizards’ defense. They rank 27th in efficiency and have allowed the second most RPG this season. (2.94 opponent +/-) Furthermore, they play at the 6th fastest pace. In Philly’s first date with Washington this year, Embiid scored 42.8 DK points in only 22.2 minutes of action. (1.92 DK PPM) When Embiid has played vs an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or more this season, he has supplied 59.33 DK PPG.
Plus, The Sixers are tied for the 4th highest implied team total of Tuesday night (118.25 points) and when they have had an implied team total of at least 115 points, Embiid is averaging 56.7 DK PPG. The only cause for concern is Philly is favored by nine points on their home floor, but Washington has won three of their last four, including a convincing win over The Thunder on Sunday. (116-98) This game should stay close enough that Embiid logs over 30 minutes, which should result in a 60+ DK point performance.
C: Guillermo Hernangomez: (4,400)
Sunday, Hernangomez moved back to the bench, but he had his most productive game since Cody Zeller (hand) got hurt. In 24 minutes vs The Suns, Herenangomez posted a near double double of 19 points and nine rebounds, while also chipping in with four assists, and a steal. (36.75 DK points) Zeller will remain sidelined and even if Hernangomez continues to come off the bench, with Bismack Biyombo starting, Hernangomez is the player we want to target. He scores a much more effective 1.26 DK PPM, compared to Biymabo’s 1.07, and they should essentially split the minutes at center.
In 20-25 minutes, Hernangomez, and his ball hog ways, should score close to a double double, and over 25 DK points in this elite matchup vs The Clippers, which is the best possible matchup for a player on Tuesday night. (4.18 opponent +/-) Centers usually eat against this soft Clippers’ front-court and in the three games Hernangomez has gone against an opponent +/- of 4.0 points or better this season, he has exceeded expectations by 4.02 DK PPG. For a cheap bench player, Hernangomez has a rather high ceiling and is a great value in this dream spot vs The Clippers.
SG/SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic: (5,900)
Iman Shumpert (questionable, finger) could return tonight, but that shouldn’t stop us from rostering Bogey. He is scoring 40 DK PPG as the starter for Shumpert in these last two and was averaging 32.8 DK PPG in the previous four before Shump sprained his finger. Bogdanovic is the exact type of player you want to target in fantasy. He plays with a ton confidence and wants the ball in his hands all times. He has taken on a 24.6% usage rate and is scoring 1.03 DK PPM since Christmas.
Tonight’s tilt vs The Suns, should be very high scoring, as both of these teams rank in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency this season. (230.5 O/U game total) It also comes with a very small spread (SAC -2) and if Shumpert is active or not, Bogdanovic will play 30+ minutes tonight. He scored 27.8 DK points in The Kings’ first matchup with The Suns this season and in the 24 games that have had a total of 220+ points and a single digit spread, Bogdanovic has produced 29.2 DK PPG. Just like last night, Bogey is one of the best values available.
PG: Jeff Teague: (6,500)
In these first two games since returning from an ankle injury, with both Derick Rose (ankle) and Robert Covington (knee) out, Teague has flourished. (45 DK PPG) The Wolves have won each of these contests by double digits, so Teague has done all of this damage in limited work. (28.7 MPG) Tonight, Rose and Covington will still be out, and The Wolves should be in a more competitive setting vs The Thunder, even if OKC is favored by eight points. (MIN has won two straight) I am not expecting huge minutes, but I think Teague plays right over 30 minutes in this game, which will be more than enough for him to get us value, with him scoring 1.42 DK PPM in these past two (21.4% usage and a team high 44.7% assist rate), and notching at least ten assists in five straight games.
The Thunder are the top defense in The NBA (0.85 opponent +/-), but Russell Westbrook has a tendency to gamble for steals, and when Teague has played up in pace this season (OKC is a 3.0 possession increase), he has exceed expectations by 3.25 DK PPG. With Rose deeming himself healthy enough to play Friday, this is the last time we will be able to utilize Teague in this role, and he is a very strong combination of safety/upside on Tuesday night.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,200)
Westbrook has been playing well, with three triple doubles in his last four games. (64.8 DK PPG) He scored 56.8 DK points vs The Wolves earlier this season and another triple double is very possibly.
SF/PF: Paul George: (10,300)
PG13’s price is getting very high, but he has been playing at an MVP type level. (51.57 DK PPG in his L17) Having no Covington on the other side is big for George (1st team All-NBA defense last season) and he should top 50 DK points.
PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (9,100)
Simmons has been up and down, but he should excel vs this Wizards’ club. (2.87 opponent +/-) Earlier this year, he scored 38.5 DK points against them in only 25.3 minutes. (1.52 opponent +/-)
SG: Bradley Beal: (8,900)
Beal has been great without John Wall (heel), scoring 48.2 DK PPG in his last five, and I think he comes close to five times value, despite this being a difficult spot vs Philly. (0.78 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Devin Booker: (8,700)
Booker (back) is questionable, but if he plays, he is an excellent GPP target. The Kings are a big pace bump for The Suns (4.5 possession increase) and in the 11 games he has received a pace bump of 2.0 possessions or more, at home, Booker is scoring 45 DK PPG.
C: Deandre Ayton: (8,100)
The Kings are always a matchup to attack for centers (3.17 opponent +/-) and Ayton has been much better as of late. (42.1 DK PPG in L10)
PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (7,400)
With Myles Turner (shoulder) out on Sunday, Sabonis started and scored 39.25 DK points across 30 minutes vs The Raptors. Starter or reserve, Sabonis has been outstanding in his last six. (37.8 DK PPG) He is obviously a better play if Turner is out (39.4 DK PPG in the two Tunrer has missed this season), but is viable either way, going against this Cavs’ defense that is the worst unit in The NBA.
PG: De’Aaron Fox: (7,200)
Fox has been disappointing (27.7 DK PPG in L4), but he should bounce back vs this Suns’ defense, that is 28th in efficiency. (1.92 opponent +/-) All in all, this a pretty friendly price tag for a player who went over 40 DK points in six straight games before the new year.
SF/PF: T.J. Warren: (7,100)
This price makes him a better GPP play, but Warren is scoring 33.5 DK PPG in his last five, which includes a 10 DK point showing vs The Sixers. Like every Sun, Warren will benefit from the pace difference vs The Kings. (35.65 DK PPG in the four he has seen a possession increase of 4.0 or greater this season)
C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (6,300)
36.25 DK PPG in his last two and WCS should get a double double vs Ayton and this Suns’ defense (3.56 opponent +/-), but do note, he really struggles on the road. (-8.5 DK PPG)
SF/PF: Otto Porter Jr.: (5,600)
Porter has been awesome in his last two (35.5 DK PPG), playing off the bench, and he will have no minutes limit tonight vs The Sixers.
SF/PF: Marvin Williams: (5,300)
Williams has stepped up with Zeller out (32.13 DK PPG) and his matchup is strong (LAC is a 1.89 opponent +/-), but the possible return of Jeremy Lamb (questionable, hamstring) could slightly hurt his usage.
SF/PF: Neman Bjelica: (5,300)
With them blowing out The Magic, Bjelica didn’t have to play much last night (21.5 minutes), but he should get back over 30 minutes tonight, with Marvin Bagley being rested on the second night of a back to back. In the three prior to Monday, Bjelica was doing great, with Bagley out (34.6 DK PPG) and The Suns are obviously a nice spot. (3rd worst rated defense)
SG/SF: Josh Jackson: (4,900)
It has been announced if Booker is out, Jackson will start in his place. He has scored 23 DK PPG in the ten Booker has missed this year and is averaging 1.06 DK PPM when both Booker and Trevor Ariza (traded) have been off the floor. If Booker is out, Jackson would become a primary value, in this up-tempo matchup vs The Kings.
C: Bismack Biyombo: (4,500)
Biyombo is also viable in this gorgeous matchup vs The Clippers (4.18 opponent +/-) and is a nice GPP pivot off Hernangomez. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) In his first game as the starter for Zeller, Biyombo tallied a 16/12 double double vs The Nuggets this past Saturday night.
PF/C: Kyle O’Quinn: (3,500)
With Turner out last game, KOQ scored 29.75 DK points in 17.2 minutes off the bench vs The Raptors. He scores an elite 1.58 DK PPM and in the two Turner has missed this season, O’Quinn is scoring 21 DK PPG. If Turner sits, which seems likely, with him missing practice on Monday, KOQ would be one of the best punts of the night.
PG/SG: Trey Burke: (3,400)
Burke has played a little more in these past two (16.32 MPG) and it has led to some solid production, for such a cheap player. (19.25 DK PPG) He always commands a high usage (30.9% in L2) and should see some extra run in garbage time, assuming The Warriors do their job and blow out the Knicks in The Oracle. (GSW -17) Burke should get at least 15 DK points, with a decent ceiling of around 30 DK points.
SF/PF: Mario Hezonja: (3,200)
After not leaving the bench for a few games, Hezonja played 13 minutes this past Friday vs The Lakers (18 DK points), and then a large 31.3 minutes vs The Blazers last night. (29.25 DK points) He should log 20+ minutes again, with room for more, if The Knicks do indeed get blown out. Hezonja scores 0.82 DK PPM this season and is producing 27.75 DK PPG in the last three he has surpassed 20 minutes. I usually don’t like to target Knicks’ players, but Hezonja seems like a worthwhile risk at only $3,200.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com