What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 9th. We get a full slate on Wednesday, with ten games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG/SG: James Harden: (12,200)
I hate spending this much of the cap on one player, but Harden is worth it, with Eric Gordon (knee) and Chris Paul (hamstring) still out. The Beard is scoring a massive 1.79 DK PPM when they have been off the floor and is averaging 73.88 DK PPG in the these past four without both Paul and Gordon.
His usage has been at an absurd level (45.2%) and despite being a tough spot vs The Bucks (3rd in defensive efficiency), Harden has a floor close to 60 DK points with a ceiling over 90, when you factor in he is at home in Houston, where he is averaging 67.6 DK PPG in his last four, and 4.6 more DK PPG this season. This game will be on national TV and is one of the best environments of tonight’s ten contests. (227.5 O/U game total and MIL -1.5) Harden should put on a show and is worth paying up for on Wednesday night.
SG/SF: Kelly Oubre Jr.: (3,800)
With Devin Booker (back) out last night, Oubre had his best game of the season, scoring 46.75 DK points in 30.1 minutes off the bench in the win over The Kings. The 30.1 minutes was the most he has played in seven games and Oubre also posted a strong 27.1% usage rate. With this being the second night of a back to back set, it seems very unlikely Booker (doubtful) will be able to play, which should keep Oubre in this bigger role, following their first win in nearly two weeks.
Oubre has played 139 minutes without Booker since joining Phoenix and in that time, he has received a team high 3.2% usage bump, and is generating 0.96 DK PPM. The matchup becomes tougher tonight, on the road, vs The Mavs (0.63 opponent +/-), but Oubre’s role without Booker cancels out any concerns we should have with this Dallas defense. In 25-30 minutes of action, Oubre should have no trouble returning five times value.
PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (7,600)
Russell was held in check by Boston’s great defensive guards on Monday (11.25 DK points in 23.2 minutes), but was on a tear before this blowout loss. In his previous four, Russell was scoring 47.3 DK PPG and playing 34.1 MPG. (1.3 DK PPM) He was seeing a team high 31% usage rate in this stretch and the fact that he logged over 30 minutes in four straight games was a very positive sign for Russell as The Nets’ starting PG. Tonight, he should get back on track in this beautiful matchup vs The Hawks, who are the league’s fastest team this season.
They are a 6.2 possession increase for The Nets and when Russell faced them last month, he popped off for 56.5 DK points. Also, in the 26 total games Russell has played up in pace this season, he has averaged 34.88 DK PPG. The Nets will get Joe Harris and DeMarre Carroll back, but they will still need Russell’s offense, with Allen Crabbe (knee), Caris LeVert (ankle), and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (hip) all still sidelined. To put a cherry on top, Russell will be on his home floor, where he is scoring a notable 5.0 more DK PPG this season. This is the perfect bounce back spot for D Loading and I feel comfortable with him in all formats.
PG: De’Anthony Melton: (4,300)
Melton also saw a huge boost with Booker out on Tuesday. In 31.3 minutes vs The Kings, the rookie recorded 37.5 DK points. This was the second highest score of his career and the playing time was the most Melton has seen in 13 games.
When Booker and Trevor Ariza have been off the floor, Melton has seen his usage rise 2.4%, and is scoring right under one DK PPM. (0.98) Assuming Booker sits again, as expected, Melton will start and should log close to 30 minutes vs The Mavs. As I said with Oubre, this matchup is tougher than the one they saw vs The Kings, but both of these players remain underpriced for their workloads sans Booker.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,500)
Davis will be at home (4.8 more DK PPG), going against The Cavs, who are the worst rated defense in The NBA. AD is scoring 63.4 DK PPG in his last 12, but the blowout concerns make him better for GPPs. (NO -14)
C: Joel Embiid: (10,800)
Embiid only had to play 23.46 minutes vs The Wizards last night (41.5 DK points) and if this game is closer (PHI -3.5), vs the same Washington team, Embiid should approach 60 DK points, with him producing a robust 1.83 DK PPM vs The Wizards this season. (2.94 opponent +/-)
PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (9,100)
Embiid and Simmons are in the same boat tonight. Simmons has also killed The Wizards this season (1.52 DK PPM) and if this game can stay true to it’s spread, Simmons should out produce his current salary. (2.85 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Blake Griffin: (9,000)
With some extra usage (32.8%), Griffin has been great in his last four. (52.1 DK PPG) Tonight, he heads to LA, to take on The Lakers, who play at the third fastest pace in the league. (1.27 opponent +/-) He is scoring 49.1 DK PPG in the 18 contests he has received a possession increase this season. (LA is a 4.2 possession bump for DET)
SG: Bradley Beal: (8,900)
Even in a blowout, Beal still scored 40.25 DK points vs The Sixers last night. He is now scoring 46.8 DK PPG in his last six and should score close to this average in a more competitive setting than last night.
C: Clint Capela: (7,800)
It is hard to ignore how well Capela has been playing (53.4 DK PPG in L3) and Brook Lopez has no chance of slowing him down.
PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (7,100)
Sabonis is scoring 38.75 DK PPG in these last two as the starting center and Myles Turner (neck) is doubtful to play vs The Celtics. Boston is a tough defense (0.91 opponent +/-), but Sabonis is just way too cheap at $7,100.
C: Deandre Jordan: (6,900)
This matchup vs The Suns is outstanding for Jordan (3.59 opponent +/-) and he is supplying 4.1 more DK PPG when at home. In his first meeting with Phoenix this year, DJ scored 34.1 DK points.
C: Tristan Thompson: (6,000)
Thompson has been solid (33.5 DK PPG in L3) and this matchup rates well vs The Pelicans (1.47 opponent +/-), but he could always get in foul trouble vs AD. Nonetheless, Thompson is underpriced if Larry Nance Jr. (questionable, knee) is out. (42,75 DK points last vs The Pacers, with Nance only playing five minutes)
SF/PF: DeMarre Carroll: (5,500)
Before being rested on Monday, Carroll had scored over 30 DK points in five straight games. He benefits from RHJ being out and to add to this being an awesome matchup vs The Hawks (1.71 opponent +/-), they are one of his former teams.
SF/PF: Josh Jackson: (5,200)
Jackson started in place of Booker and supplied 30 DK points in 31 minutes vs The Kings. He scores 1.04 DK PPM without Booker and should start in his place again vs The Mavs. Oubre and Melton are the better values, but Jackson is also very viable, and I don’t mind using all three together.
PG/SG: Derick White: (4,900)
White has averaged 30.54 DK PPG in his last six and Rudy Gay (wrist) will miss another game. (2.7% usage increase W/O Gay) The matchup limits his upside (MEM is a 0.4 opponent +/-), but White played 35 minutes last game, and should still top 25 DK points.
PG/SG: Austin Rivers: (4,500)
Rivers has played over 40 minutes in each game of these last four games (23.9 DK PPG) and this is the cheapest he has been since joining the starting five for Gordon.
PF/C: Kyle O’Quinn: (3,500)
With Turner out, you have to consider KOQ again, even after last night’s disaster. (6.5 DK points vs The Cavs) He still played 14 minutes in this game and he should have to log 15-20 vs The Celtics. This may not seem like much, but O’Quinn usually produces when he sees action. (1.34 DK PPM this season) By no means is he a safe play, but most people should be bitter about last night, and we all know KOQ has a solid ceiling, relative to his soft price. (29.75 DK points vs The Raptors two games ago and is averaging 22.2 DK PPG in the six he has played at least 10 minutes)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com