What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 10th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with eight games on tap. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
PG: Kemba Walker: (8,100) Kemba has been a man on a mission the last two weeks averaging 46.4 DK points over his last six games. In this span, he has been one of the best scorers in the league, scoring 29 points on 21.3 shots per game with a 32.4% usage rate, which is a 3.4% jump from the 28.9% usage he was seeing before this stretch of games. Tonight he takes on The Magic at home, where he has notoriously played better, scoring 2.38 more DK points in his 151 home games over the last three seasons.
The matchup is decent for him with The Magic currently presenting 0.76 opponent +/- vs starting PGs. He should continue this run and score 40+ DK points for the 7th consecutive game. Even though he has been on fire hitting at least five times value in six straight games, DraftKings hasn’t adjusted his price at all, pricing him at $8,100, which is actually a $400 price drop from his 46 DK point outing vs The Nuggets last Saturday. At $8,100, he is one of the best values of this whole slate and is a player I will be building around in both cash games and GPPs tonight.
C: Mason Plumlee: (5,900) With Nikola Jokic out the last two games (illness), Plumlee has been great, putting up back to back double-doubles, scoring 35 DK points vs The Kings and 40.5 DK points vs The Wizards. In these two games, he is scoring an efficient 1.25 DK points per minute, with a 27.4% usage rate and a team high 20.8 rebound percentage. It’s up in the air if Jokic will return tonight, but at shoot around earlier today Nuggets Head Coach Michael Malone called him “very questionable” to play. Now he could surprise us `and end up suiting up, but from his coach’s comments, he sounds very unlikely to play tonight vs The Celtics.
If Jokic is out, Plumlee would excel as the starter again vs this Boston defense that always struggles vs opposing big men, with a current opponent +/- of 1.78 points vs starting centers. With a starting role, he should play 30+ minutes and score 30+ DK points with 40 point upside in this game that is expected to be a very high scoring affair, with its O/U game total of 221.5 points. The one problem is with this game tipping off at 9:00 PM EST, we might not know Jokic’s official status before roster lock. If we do get confirmation that Jokic is out, Plumlee is a viable option in all formats, but if we don’t have an official word, he still seems like a worthwhile risk in GPPs.
C: Cody Zeller: (5,200) With center Frank Kaminsky out with a shoulder injury, Zeller has been playing a ton, averaging 38 minutes over his last two games. He has been solid with the boost in playing time, averaging 28 DK points in these two contests. Barring any foul trouble with Kaminsky already ruled out, he should play 35+ minutes in a nice matchup vs The Magic, who give up the 6th most DK points to centers this season and have a high current opponent +/- of 2.47 points.
His usage and rebounding don’t go up with Kaminsky off the court, this recommendation is purely just based off the high minutes he should play. This season he is scoring 0.89 DK points per minute, and with a projection 35 minutes, he should score 31 DK points, which would be a terrific 5.9 times value at his $5,200 salary. In fact in the last three games he has played 35 minutes or more, he is averaging exactly 31 DK points per game. Now I am not saying he would be a bust if he didn’t top 30 DK points, he is just underpriced for the minutes he should handle, and is one of strongest values of this eight game slate.
PG/SG: Jamal Murray: (4,000) If you don’t want to pay up at SG tonight, Murray makes a lot of sense in GPPs at his cheap price. He struggled Monday night only scoring 7.0 DK points vs The Kings, but was great last Saturday putting up 26.75 DK points against The Hornets and 29.25 DK points vs The Wizards this past Wednesday. His minutes were up in these two games, playing 24 and 26 minutes off the bench, compared to his season average of 20 minutes a night. He is a very hit or miss type of player, but if his shot is on, he has a chance tonight vs a Celtics defense that allows the 13th most DK points to PGs, with a current opponent +/- of 1.03 points vs back up PGs.
He will come off the bench which is a good thing because he should mostly avoid being matched up against Celtics starting SG Avery Bradley, who is one of the best on ball defenders in The NBA. If he sees around 25 minutes again, he has a great shot of scoring 20+ DK points, in this elite game environment, with its Vegas O/U game total of 221.5 points and tight spread of only three points. There is a lot of risk here with Murray, but his SG eligibility makes him a very intriguing GPP flier that should be very low owned. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Avery Bradley (played 29 minutes last game, his minutes have increased in every game since his return), Al Horford, Kosta Koufos (averaging 29 DK points in his last three games), Justin Hamilton/Quincy Acy (Brook Lopez is out), Jeremy Lin, Evan Fournier (if Vucevic is out again), Jeremy Lamb, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell/Salah Mejri (hard to predict which player will see more run with Noel out, but one of them should produce value in this dream matchup vs The Nets), Trevor Booker, Matthew Dellavedova, and Tim Hardaway Jr.