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DraftKings NBA Picks – March 11th

 

Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 11th. For Monday night, we get a solid six game slate. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Andre Drummond: (9,000)

Drummond didn’t have to do much in the blowout win over The Bulls yesterday (37.75 DK points in 30 minutes), but he should shine tonight vs The Nets. He was scoring 46.3 DK PPG in his previous nine before Sunday and in two matchups vs Brooklyn this season, Drummond has been a monster. (56.9 DK PPG)

Given how bad they have been at defending centers all year, it is no surprise to see this type of average for Drummond and this is the highest rated individual matchup for a player on Monday night.  (4.16 opponent +/-) In the three games this season that he has gone against an opponent +/- of 4.0 points or more, Drummond has produced 53 DK PPG. He has 20/20 upside in this spot and we can safely expect at least 45 DK points.

Value Picks:

SF/PF: Harrison Barnes: (5,200)

Barnes is just downright underpriced for his recent role with Marvin Bagley (out, knee) on the shelf. As The Kings’ starting PF in these last four games, Barnes has played at least 37 minutes in each and is contributing 31.6 DK PPG. Tonight, The Kings head to Washington, to square off with The Wizards. Both of these clubs are among the fastest in the league (SAC 3rd and WAS 5th) and Washington’s defense has been dreadful all year long. (28th in efficiency and a 2.14 opponent +/-)

This tilt has the highest O/U game total of Monday night, by a massive 13.5 points and it also presents the smallest spread of the slate. (SAC -1) You are going to want multiple players from this game and Barnes is the top value to attack.

PF/C: Frank Kaminsky: (4,400)

Tonight, The Hornets will be without starters Cody Zeller (knee) and Marvin Williams (illness), and also Michael Kidd-Glichrist. (knee) He could slide into the starting lineup, but starter or not, Kamisnky should lead this Hornets’ front-court in minutes. He has been a very viable cheap fantasy option since reentering this rotation five games ago (23.8 DK PPG in L5) and Kaminsky sees a 1.1% usage increase with these three players missing. (1.0 DK PPM)

I am projecting him for 28 minutes, which could be tentative and Frank The Tank should have no issues eclipsing five times value with 30+ DK point upside in this expanded role. At only $4,400, he is without a doubt one of the best values on the board.

PG/SG: Donovan Mitchell: (8,400)

With Ricky Rubio (out, hip) missing on Friday, Mitchell stepped for The Jazz as their starting PG, with 53.5 DK points in a tough and slow matchup vs The Grizzlies. (6th in defensive efficiency) Rubio will remain out tonight, along with Raul Neto (hamstring) and in the seven full games these two PGs have missed this season, Mitchell has taken on a team high 34.8% usage rate and scored 45.6 DK PPG. Tonight, he will be at home, which has been a big boost for him this season (4.8 more DK PPG), taking on The Thunder, who are a large 3.4 possession increase for The Jazz. (1.5 opponent +/-)

When Mitchell has been at home and playing up in pace by at least 2.0 possessions this year, he has been great. (42.72 DK PPG) Furthermore, he always takes his game to another level when facing The NBA’s best teams in Utah. (44.1 DK PPG vs teams with a record of .500 or better) Mitchell is a strong high end value at this price, that brings safety and big upside in this important game.

Also Consider:

PG/SF: James Harden: (11,400)

Harden was a huge disappointment last night (33.25 DK points vs The Mavs), but he should rebound nicely on Monday, back at home, vs The Hornets. (1.03 opponent +/-)

He scores 6.0 more DK PPG at home this season and was producing 56.9 DK PPG in the ten before Sunday.

SG: Bradley Beal: (9,700)

Beal erupted for 67 DK points in Saturday’s OT loss to The Wolves and is averaging 55.9 DK PPG in his last ten. Now, he will be back at home, to compete in one of the best projected game environments of the season vs The Kings.

Beal has played in two games with game totals of 240 points or higher this season and in those contests, he is supplying 48 DK PPG. At a first glance, the price tag may seem high, but it really isn’t in anyway, as Beal possesses one of the best ceilings of the night.

PG: Kyrie Irving: (8,900)

Coming off a 56.25 DK point showing vs LeBron James and The Lakers on their home floor, Irving has seen his price drop $100. He is scoring 46 DK PPG in his last five and even though Patrick Beverly is on other side, this Clippers’ defense is rating as a positive matchup for PGs. (1.22 opponent +/-)

This game has the second highest total of tonight’s six (226.5 points) and in the 22 Celtics’ tilts that have come with a total of 220 points or greater this season, Irving is recording 47.3 DK PPG. Plus, Jayson Tatum (out, shoulder) will miss his first game of the season, which should lead to a few extra shots for Uncle Drew.

C: Rudy Gobert: (7,800)

The Thunder are a very nice spot for centers (2.06 opponent +/-) and in those seven full games without Rubio and Neto, Gobert is scoring a team high 46.5 DK PPG.

In three matchups with OKC this season, he is averaging 43.1 DK PPG.

PF/C: Kevin Love: (7,700)

Love has played 30+ minutes in back to back outings (43.75 DK PPG in L2) and if The Cavs can avoid getting blown out on their home floor vs The Raptors (TOR -8.5), he should see 30+ again. (1.41 DK PPM)

SG/SF: Buddy Hield: (7,400)

The Wizards struggle with long range shooters like Hield (5th most made 3PPG allowed) and hehas been excellent as of late. (42.25 DK PPG in L7)

PG: De’Aaron Fox: (7,300)

Fox was terrific vs The Knicks on Saturday (49.75 DK points) and has obviously benefited from playing in high scoring affairs like tonight. (36.28 DK PPG when the total is 235+ points)

PG: Chris Paul: (7,100)

Paul’s numbers have dwindled recently (29.5 DK PPG in L3), but this still feels like a very soft price for him. (38.2 DK PPG this season)

He is going to bounce back soon and tonight could be the night, vs The Hornets. (1.46 opponent +/-)

C: Clint Capela: (7,000)

It took a few games, but Capela has looked more like the player we saw earlier this season in these last two (37.3 DK PPG) and The Hornets are weak inside. (1.78 opponent +/-)

In The Rockets only meeting with The Hornets this season, Capela posted a 23/17 double double. (52.8 DK points)

PG/SG: Spencer Dinwiddie: (6,000)

Dinwiddie has looked fully healthy in these last two (44/75 DK PPG and 30 MPG) and is still viable tonight, even in a difficult spot vs The Pistons. (0.76 opponent +/-)

PF/C: Bobby Portis: (5,900)

Portis’ minutes can volatile, but he has flashed some great upside in his last four (37 DK PPG, 40+ in L2) and the matchup is extremely appetizing with The Kings allowing the most RPG this season. (1.7 opponent +/-)

His unpredictability makes him better reserved for GPPs, but an excellent option in that format, with a low expected ownership. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

SG/SF: Jeremy Lamb: (5,900)

It is unclear at the moment what starting five The Hornets will roll out, but if Lamb becomes a starter, he will instantly become viable.

He sees a 2% usage increase when these three are off the floor and a team high 0.2 DK PPM bump, resulting in 1.08 DK PPM. Even if he continues to come off the bench, Lamb will still be a strong GPP target.

SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,400)

Parker’ role with The Wizards has become more steady (32.37 DK PPG and 27 MPG in L4) and while there a much safer values to attack, Parker has awesome upside for his price, in this fast paced matchup vs Sacramento.

SF/PF: Jae Crowder: (4,800)

In Rubio’s absence, Crowder scored 34.8 DK points across 31 minutes vs The Grizzlies on Saturday.

He has been much improved overall recently (31.9 DK PPG in L3) and Crowder’s playing time should hover around 30 minutes again with Rubio and Neto confirmed out.

SF/PF: Gordon Hayward: (4,600)

As the starters, Morris and Brown are rating as the better values, but this could be a potential blow up spot for Hayward.

His assist percentage rises 3.8% sans Tatum and Hayward has been playing much better recently. (32.1 DK PPG in L3)

SF/PF: Marcus Morris: (4,500)

Morris has been terrific in his last two (31.75 DK PPG) and is The Celtics’ starter that receives the biggest bumps with Tatum off the floor. (+1.6% usage, +2.2% assist, and 1.5% rebound, which is 1.01 DK PPM)

We should see around 30 DK points again from Morris and he is viable for both cash games and GPPs.

SG/SF: Jaylen Brown: (4,500)

This Celtics’ coaching staff prefers that Gordon Hayward plays off the bench, so I am expecting Brown to get the spot in place of Tatum.

He has scored 0.9 DK PPM over the past month and should log 30+ minutes with a starter’s role. Combining more than one of these Celtics’ wings in the same lineup is totally viable tonight, given their cheap prices.

PF: Neman Bjelica: (4,200)

At first, it seemed like even with Bagley out, Bjelcia was going to play a much smaller role with The Kings for the rest of the season, but in these last three, he has carved himself a sizable role off the bench. He scored 39 DK points in 29 minutes vs The Knicks on Saturday and is now scoring 27 DK PPG in 27.6 MPG in these past three.

As I said above, Washington has allowed the 5th most made 3PPG this season and in The Kings’ first meeting with them, Bjelica scored 53.5 DK points, while shooting 6/10 from the beyond the arc. I am not expecting this type of score, but he should provide 25+ DK points in this elite game setting.

SF/PF Miles Bridges: (3,300)

With The Hornets shorthanded, Bridges should have to play 30+ minutes.

He was very effective Saturday vs The Bucks (26 DK points in 25 minutes) and scores a solid 0.87 DK when Williams, Zeller, and MKG are off the floor. The rookie’s floor is low, but he is certainly in play with his team so depleted.

C: Guillermo Hernangomez/Bismack Biyombo: (3,000)

Hernangomez’s role has diminished, while Biyombo was listed as probable for The Hornets’ last game, but didn’t end up seeing the floor. We have no idea which one it will be, but one of these minimum priced centers is going to start tonight vs The Rockets. They need a true center to matchup with Capela.

Hernangomez is the better fantasy player (1.33 DK PPM W/O Williams, Zeller, and MKG), but I could see them going with Biyombo (0.97 DK PPM), who is the much better defender. Either way, whoever draws the start will be a viable punt if you need the extra salary cap relief.

*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

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