DraftKings NBA Picks – March 11th

Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for March 11th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with nine games to attack. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

SF: LeBron James: (11,000) With so much value opening up from The Spurs Warriors game, it makes a lot of sense to lock James in your lineups tonight. Since The All Star Break, The King has been doing all he can, almost averaging a triple double, with 27.8 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. He is now averaging a ridiculous 63.29 DK points in 38.5 minutes over his last six games. Even though James is playing like he is 25 years old, The Cavs as a team have taken a huge step backwards defensively, and have only been a .500 team since the break.

They are still the #1 seed in The East, but with teams like The Celtics and The Wizards right behind them, they know they have to play James as much as possible if they want to secure home court for the playoffs. Tonight he and The Cavs head to Orlando to take on The Magic, who are a solid matchup for him, with this defense allowing the 13th most DK points to opposing SFs this season. Barring a blowout, James should play 35-40 minutes and score 55-60 DK points tonight. The nine point spread in favor of The Cavs is definitely a concern, but with some much value available, James is the most logical stud to build around and is a hard player to fade in all formats.

Value Picks:

PG/SG: Ian Clark: (3,000) There is no doubt Clark will easily be one of the highest owned players of the night, but he is just too good of value of ignore with The Warriors resting their four most important players. In the 147 minutes that Clark has been on the floor with PG Steph Curry, PF Draymond Green, SF Kevin Durant, SF Andre Igoudala, and SG Klay Thompson all off, he is posting a great 28.3% usage rate, and is scoring 38.67 DK points per 36 minutes of action.

With all these players out, Clark will start tonight, and should play as many minutes as he can handle vs The Spurs. The matchup is solid with The Spurs allowing the 11th most DK points to PGs this season, but they most likely will be a weaker defensive unit, with SF Kawhi Leonard (head), PG Tony Parker (back), PG Dejounte Murray (groin), and PF LaMacrus Aldridge (heart) also already ruled out. I am expecting Clark to play at least 30 minutes tonight and easily score 20+ DK points with 30 point upside. He is an immense value play at a bare minimum $3,000, and is core play for me on Saturday night.

C: Greg Monroe: (5,800) Monroe is in a very nice spot tonight taking on The Wolves who have struggled all year defending centers giving up the 5th most DK points to the position, with a high current opponent +/- of 3.34 points. He has been a tough player to trust this season, but he has been playing well in his last two games, with 33 DK points vs The Knicks and 32.25 DK points vs The Pacers. He comes off the bench so his minutes are sometimes hard to predict, but he has been playing more as of late, averaging 28 minutes in his last two games, compared to the 22 minutes he was seeing in his prior two games.

The big man will always produce if gets the minutes, with him averaging 1.18 DK points per minute this year. If he plays 25-30 minutes he should dominate vs this Wolves defense, and score 30-35 DK points with upside. The one concern here is that in The Bucks first meeting against The Wolves this year he only played 14 minutes off the bench. But with The Bucks now winning back to back games with Monroe playing a large role, he should hopefully play around 30 minutes tonight, and is one of my favorite GPP plays of this slate that should be low owned with all the attention on The Spurs Warriors game. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

C: Pau Gasol: (5,100) Gasol disappointed Wednesday when Aldridge and Leonard were out, only putting up 15 DK points vs The Kings, but I think we need to forget about this bad outing, with this team even thinner tonight. As I said above The Spurs will be without Leonard, Murray, Aldridge, and Parker tonight vs The Warriors. So far this season when all four of these players have been off the court, Gasol sees the biggest in bump in usage, leading this team with a 29.4% usage rate, which is an 8.1% increase from his usual 21.3% usage rate this year. He will still come off the bench with Dwayne Dedmon starting at center, but he should play around 25 minutes tonight which is more than enough playing time for him to hit value with him scoring a terrific 1.13 DK points per minute this year when all four of these players aren’t on the floor with him.

Just like for all The Warrior players, this is a hard situation to evaluate Gasol’s defensive matchup with his opponent so shorthanded. But no matter which player The Warriors throw at Gasol, I don’t think he will have any issues producing with his high expected usage, if the minutes are there for him. Also another factor is that even though both these teams will be without most of their key players tonight, this is still a very big game, with The Spurs only trailing The Warriors by 1.5 games for The #1 seed in The West. It would make sense for Spurs Head Coach Greg Popovich to rely on his veterans tonight to pick up a win against this Warriors team that has now lost two straight. I know he let some of us down on Wednesday night in a similar situation, but I am going right back to him tonight, with his low expected ownership of 5-8%. (via Fantasy Labs)

Also Consider: Shaun Livingston, Patrick McCaw, Zaza Pachulia, David Lee (great value assuming he is starting), Matt Barnes (a nice tournament pivot off McCaw), Patty Mills, Manu Ginobli, Tim Hardaway Jr. (better if he remains a starter, but is still viable in GPPs if he comes off the bench), Ersan Ilyasova (should play more with Dwight Howard out), and  Evan Fournier (if Vucevic is out again).