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DraftKings NBA Picks – March 12th

 

What’s going on everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 12th. For Tuesday night, we get seven games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Nikola Jokic: (10,000)

After a three game road trip, Jokic will be back at home tonight, where he has been much more comfortable this season. (6.7 more DK PPG) He will be going against The Wolves, who are dealing with multiple key injuries right now.

Either way, this is 2.3 possession increase for Nuggets (1.14 opponent +/-) and in the 19 home games that Jokic has played up in pace by 2.0 possessions or more, he is generating 55.04 DK PPG. Plus, The Nuggets currently hold the second highest implied team total of Tuesday night (118,75 points) and in the 13 previous home games that Denver sported a team total of 115 points or more, Jokic was even better, with 57.54 DK PPG. With many question marks surrounding most of the studs on this slate, The Joker is the best option above $10,000.

Value Picks:

C: Ante Zizic: (3,700)

Last night, with Kevin Love active, but Tristan Thompson (foot) and Larry Nance Jr. (chest) out, Zizic drew the start at center for The Cavs and was very effective in their surprise blowout win over The Raptors. (24.25 DK points in 27 minutes) Now, with tonight being their second game in two nights, Love will be rested and Cleveland will remain without Thompson and Nance for the second straight game, and most likely Marquese Chriss, who is facing a possible suspension after getting in a fist fight with Serge Ibaka on Monday night.

Chriss threw punches in the altercation and it is very possible he misses tonight’s tilt vs Sixers. These four front-court players missing would create a huge void for The Cavs and Zizic should start and be forced into a 30+ minute role on Tuesday. The Sixers do have Joel Embiid back, making this a tougher matchup than their rating suggests (1.67 opponent +/-), but we are targeting Zizc solely based off the high volume he will see. He scores a solid 0.91 DK PPM and is averaging 26.5 DK PPG in all the contests he has logged at least 25 minutes this season.  Even if Chriss gets off easy and is available, Zizic is a must play at only $3,700.

PG/SG: Kris Dunn: (5,200)

With Zach LaVine (doubtful, knee) not expected to play, Dunn should take on a much bigger offensive load tonight. In all the time Dunn has played without LaVine, Bobby Portis (traded), Justin Holiday (traded), Wendell Carter Jr. (out, thumb), Jabari Parker (traded), Cameron Payne (waived), and Tyler Ulis (waived), he has seen his usage increase 4.9% and his assist rate 3.3%. (0.91 DK PPM)

LaVine missed Sunday’s game, but Dunn’s minutes were limited to only 22 in the blowout win over The Pistons. (16.5 DK points) Tonight’s home matchup vs the struggling Lakers is projected to be the closest game of the night (LAL -1) and Dunn should log 30+ minutes in this very strong spot. (5th worst defense in The NBA in their L3, a 1.15 opponent +/-, and 4.5 possession increase for Chicago) Dunn benefits from being at home (3.0 more DK PPG this season) and should produce five times value, with 35+ DK point upside in this situation.

SF/PF: Otto Porter Jr.: (6,400)

Porter was solid on Sunday with LaVine out of the lineup (29.5 DK points in 26 minutes vs The Pistons), but I am expecting a much bigger performance vs The Lakers. Overall, in all the minutes Porter has logged without LaVine since joining The Bulls, he has seen his usage rise 4.7% and his rebound percentage jump 4.2%. This has resulted in 1.08 DK PPM for Porter, which is a team high 0.4 DK PPM increase from his season average.

This will be the first time he has played The Lakers this season, but they present a large 4.5 possession increase for The Bulls. In the two previous games this year that Porter has seen a similar pace increase (4.0 possessions or more), he has been outstanding. (44.6 DK PPG) He should approach 40 DK points tonight and Porter is one of the many fine values from this Chicago team.

Also Consider:

SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo: (11,500)

After being limited vs The Kings two weeks ago, Antetokounmpo has been slowly regaining his MVP form. (56.8 DK PPG in L6) Tonight, he is a strong spot vs The Pelicans (1.84 opponent +/-) and this game is projected to be the highest scoring of the slate. (236.5 points)

The Bucks are heavy favorites (-10.5) and Giannis will be on the road, (-1.8 DK PPG this season), but he still holds the highest projection of the night.

C: Joel Embiid: (10,200)

In his first game back on Sunday, Embiid looked like himself in a blowout win over The Pacers. (52.5 DK points in 28 minutes) Tonight, he is a huge favorite (PHI -14.5), but Jimmy Butler will be rested and Embiid is facing The Cavs, who like I said above, will be extremely shorthanded up front.

He scores 1.65 DK PPM in this current situation for The Sixers and Embiid could explode vs this depleted Cavs’ defense.

SG/SF: Luka Doncic: (8,800)

Doncic (knee) is questionable, but if he is able to play, he will be a nice target vs The Spurs. In his last three games, Doncic has been incredible (56 DK PPG) and has performed very well vs San Antonio in his rookie season. (49.8 DK PPG in two meetings)

Oh, and he will be at home, which has been a boost for Doncic. (3.4 more DK PPG)

PF/C: Lauri Markkanen: (8,200)

As expected, Markkanen’s rates have elevated with LaVine off the court (+2.5% usage and +5.3% assist) and this matchup vs The Lakers is awesome. (1.31 opponent +/-)

He has scored less than 40 DK points in five straight games, but that should change tonight.

PG/SG: Lou Williams: (7,300)

Lou Will is now the all-time leader in points off the bench, after dropping 34 and 40 real points in his last two. (55.6 DK PPG)

Tonight’s matchup vs The Blazers is tough on paper (0.49 opponent +/-), but this game will be at home in LA (3.5 more DK PPG this season) and presents a very healthy O/U game total. (233 points. Williams is producing 37.46 DK PPG when the total is 230+ points this season)

PG: Elfrid Payton: (6,500)

Payton notched a triple double vs The Hawks on Sunday (51 DK points) and is now scoring 41.5 DK PPG in this last two without Jrue Holiday. (out, ab)

With him missing again tonight, Payton should top 30 DK points, regardless if his opponent, The Bucks, are the top rated defense in basketball.

PG/SG: Frank Jackson: (5,000)

As I just mentioned with Payton, this matchup vs The Bucks is far from ideal, but Jackson could still grind out value as The Pelicans’ starting SG. (30.75 DK PPG and 35 MPG in L2 W/O Holiday)

PG/SG: Jalen Brunson: (5,000)

Brunson has been filling up the stat sheet in his last three (30.3 DK PPG) and The Spurs have struggled with guards all year. (1.93 opponent +/-)

He is a decent value right now, but if Doncic was to sit, Brunson would receive a huge bump. (28 DK PPG in the two games W/O Doncic, Harrison Barnes, Dennis Smith Jr, and J.J. Barea)

PG: Colin Sexton: (4,900)

In these past two with Matthew Delladova (concussion) out, Sexton has been an immense fantasy value with some extended playing time (38.25 DK PPG and 35.5 MPG in L2), despite facing two difficult matchups in The Heat and Raptors. (both top ten in efficiency)

If Delly misses another game, which seems likely, Sexton will be very viable vs The Sixers. (27.8 DK PPG in two meetings with Philly)

PG: Tyus Jones: (3,700)

Per usual, The Wolves injury report is a mess. KAT has been deemed probable, but Jeff Teague (foot), Derick Rose (wrist), and Andrew Wiggins (quad) are all questionable, while Loul Deng (achilles) and Robert Covington (knee) have already been confirmed out.

If either Rose or Teague were to sit, Jones would see about 25+ minutes (24 DK points in 20 minutes Sunday vs The Knicks, with Rose only able to play eight minutes), but if both can’t suit up, Jones would start and become a primary value at this price. In the five full games without Jimmy Butler (traded), Rose, and Teague, Jones is scoring 26.7 DK PPG in 34.7 MPG as Minnesota’s starting PG.

SF: Keita Bates-Diop: (3,400)

KBD has really stepped up with Wiggins and Deng out these last two games. (29.4 DK PPG and 36 MPG)

If Wiggins is inactive, Bates-Diop would be in line for another start and would be an easy play at only $3,400, no matter the matchup. (DEN is a 0.59 opponent +/-)

PF/C: Moritz Wagner: (3,300)

After basically not playing all season, Wagner has played 30.5 MPG in these last two. His numbers have been solid (28.15 DK PPG) and with Brandon Ingram (shoulder) done for the season, Wagner should continue to see 25+ minutes a night, with The Lakers’ season essentially over.

But, Kyle Kuzma (questionable, ankle) may return tonight, which would hurt Wagner’s minutes. Either way, I think the rookie has earned himself enough playing time to out produce his current salary. (0.97 DK PPM)

PG/SG: Ryan Arcidiacono: (3,300)

Arcidiacono got the spot start in place of LaVine on Sunday (16.3 DK points in 26 minutes) and would have likely played more if this game didn’t become a blowout.

He should start again tonight and with this spread vs The Lakers so small, Arcidiacono should see close to 30 minutes and crack 20 DK points.

SG/SF: Wayne Selden Jr.: (3,300)

In Sunday’s win over The Pistons, Selden contributed 26 DK points in 28 minutes off the bench. This score is a little inflated due to the blowout, but Selden saw a strong 27.1% usage rate in LaVine’s absence and receives a notable 6.3% usage increase when the SG is off the floor.

Selden is very risky, but this type of usage for a player this cheap is unheard of and this matchup vs The Lakers obviously helps. (1.35 opponent +/-)

*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

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