How’s it going everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for March 12th, 2017. Sunday night’s slate is a decent sized slate with five games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 6:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PG: D’Angelo Russell: (7,400) Russell’s minutes have been unpredictable for most of the season, but he has now logged at least 30 minutes in five of his last six games. The one game that he didn’t log 30 minutes in this stretch was a 21 point blow out loss to The Spurs where most of the starters didn’t play at the end of the game. But as always with Russell, when he logs heavy minutes, he produces, averaging 40.6 DK points in these last five games where he has played 30 minutes or more. His usage has also been on the rise, posting a 28.6% usage rate since The All Star Break, which is a solid 1.0% increase.
Tonight, he gets a nice matchup at home vs The Sixers, who allow the 8th most DK points to PGs this season. Russell should put up 35-40 DK points with upside in 30+ minutes tonight with this game having a tight spread of only 3.5 points in favor of The Lakers. His price is slowly starting to catch up with his recent production, but he is still slightly underpriced at $7,400. At this price, he is a nice combination of safety of upside, and is a player I will be targeting in all formats on Sunday.
C: Guillermo Hernangomez: (5,400) Hernangomez has been effective since being reinserted into the starting five; scoring 34 DK points in 28 minutes vs The Bucks and 29.75 DK points in 27 minutes vs The Pistons. He will remain a starter tonight and should continue to put up numbers in a perfect matchup vs a Nets defense that allows the 3rd most DK points to centers this season, with a current opponent +/- of 4.91 points.
If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should have no issues returning value against this defense that he has already dominated twice this season, averaging 36.5 DK points in an average of only 19.6 minutes, in The Knicks first two games vs their inner city rivals this season. He hasn’t played over 30 minutes in these past two starts, but with 25-28 minutes he should still score 25-30 DK points with 35-40 point upside in this dream matchup. Hernangomez may be the chalk play of the night, but his salary is just too cheap to ignore going against this dreadful Nets defense.
C: Ivica Zubac: (3,800) The 19 year old out of Croatia played well in his first game back after missing two games with a quad injury, scoring 14 points, three rebounds, two blocks, and one steal in only 17 minutes in Thursday night’s win over The Suns. (23.75 DK points) Zubac has always been a favorite of Lakers’ president Magic Johnson, and Johnson even went on to say after this win, that he would like to see Zubac, or “Big Z” as he likes to call him, start and play 30-35 minutes to see how he plays with a larger role. The team responded and sent Zubac down to their D League team, The D-Fenders, for one game on Friday, presumably to see how he handles higher minutes. In 31 minutes of action, he played great, recording a double-double of 18 points and 11 rebounds to go along with one assist, one steal, and one block.
This is definitely an encouraging sign, but we don’t know if Lakers’ Head Coach Luke Walton will instantly put Zubac in the starting lineup tonight, but the kid should see his normal 20 minutes with the potential for a lot more after Johnson’s comments. The second round pick is an effective fantasy player averaging just under 1.0 DK point per minute this season, and with 20-25 minutes he should hit value with massive upside if he approaches 30 minutes, in this terrific matchup vs The Sixers, who give up the most DK points to centers this season, with a current opponent +/- of 5.31 points, which is the highest +/- for any player in action tonight. If we got confirmation that he is starting, he would become an elite value at his $3,800 price tag, but even if we don’t have an official word, he is still worth a flier in GPPs tonight.
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (5,100) Williams hit a rough patch last week not scoring over 17.25 DK points in three straight games, but he has bounced back in his last two, with 26.25 DK points vs a tough Jazz defense and 28.25 DK points vs The Bulls. His price has come all the way down from being $6,100 last week to a very affordable $5,100, just in time for this great matchup vs a Cavs defense that is struggling lately, especially vs SGs with a high current opponent +/- of 3.61 points.
Tonight, he should play roughly 25 minutes off the bench and score 25-30 DK points in arguably the best game of the night to target, with its slate high O/U game total of 235 points, and spread of 6.5 points in favor of The Rockets. He isn’t the safest play with his lack of high minutes, but there is always upside if he gets hot, and he is a solid GPP target at $5,100 that gives you a piece of this Rockets Cavs game.
Also Consider: Allen Crabbe (averaging 28.3 DK points over his last three games and is one of the strongest SG values of the night at only $3,900), Jeremy Lin, Tyler Johnson (if Dragic is out), Jordan Clarkson, Myles Turner, Brandon Ingram, Trevor Booker, Jahill Okafor, Nene, and Marquese Chriss (boost if Len is out).