Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 12th, 2018. Tonight, we get back to a full slate with 11 games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,200) After missing a game due to a sprained ankle, Davis showed no signs of the injury, posting a massive line of 25 points, 11 rebounds, ten blocks, three assists, and three steals across 40 minutes in Sunday’s loss to The Jazz. (73.25 DK points) The 40 minutes was a very encouraging sign and he should play similar minutes tonight vs The Hornets. (-5 NO) Every game from here on out matters for The Pelicans if they want to stay in the playoff picture and they will continue to rely on AD heavily. The idea of facing off against Dwight Howard isn’t ideal, but this Hornets defense has really struggled as of late, ranking as the second worst defense over their last three games, which is a 2.89 opponent +/- for Davis.
On top of that, this game is at home in New Orleans, which is big news for AD, with him averaging 4.9 more DK PPG at home this season. Last but not least, this game has a high O/U game total of 230 points and in the last three games he has played in that have had a total of 230 points or more, Davis is averaging a whopping 82 DK PPG. He should exceed value in this spot and score 60+ DK points, with a very high ceiling. It is always tough to go all in on him because of his tendencies to get hurt, but tonight, I think we need to swallow our pride and lock in AD at this reasonable cost.
C: Brook Lopez: (5,800) Lopez has looked his old self as of late, averaging 39.2 DK PPG in his last four starts. He has now played over 30 minutes in three straight games, which is rare for him this season, with him only averaging 22.2 MPG. He is a player who needs the ball in his hands and his usage has been steady in these last four with SF Brandon Ingram (groin) out, posting a 24.4% usage rate. With it now happening in three straight games, the higher playing time is clearly by design and he should play 30+ again tonight vs The Nuggets, with Ingram remaining out.
On paper this isn’t a good matchup for centers (1.78 opponent +/-), but Lopez has done very well against this defense this season, averaging 35.8 DK PPG in his first three meetings with The Nuggets. He will also be at home, where he has been much better this year, scoring 3.7 more DK PPG compared to when he is on the road. His price tag is slowly rising, but he still rates as a strong value at $5,800. He should top 30 DK points and Lopez is one of the better ways of getting a share of this Lakers Nuggets game, that has a small spread of only two points and a high O/U game total of 230 points.
PF/C: Larry Nance Jr.: (7,000) On Sunday night, Nance struggled with foul trouble and only played 26 minute in the loss to his former team, The Lakers. (26.5 DK points) Tonight, he and The Cavs should get back on track, taking on The Suns, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season. Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in defensive efficiency in their last three games and this game should be very high scoring, with its 230 point O/U game total. Not only should it be a shootout, but it should stay competitive with The Cavs struggling right now. (-7.5 CLE) Barring bad foul trouble again, which is unlikely vs these Sun big men, Nance should get back to the 30-35 minute role he has been seeing with Tristan Thompson (ankle) sidelined.
The 26.5 DK points he scored Sunday was efficient for the minutes he logged, but before this Nance was averaging 42.3 DK PPG in his prior three. His game is perfect for playing up in pace vs this Suns team and the matchup is strong, currently sitting at a 3.51 opponent +/-. He has already played them twice this season, when he was still with The Lakers, and in those games, he scored a great 1.3 DK PPM. He currently has a Vegas implied score of 35.35 points via his props and he should approach 40 DK points vs this very weak defense. His price has dropped $400 since his last game and this is the perfect time to hop back on Nance before his price goes back up.
SG/SF: Kyle Korver: (3,600) As strictly a shooter, Korver has a very low floor, but tonight, with wings Cedi Osman (hip) and Rodney Hood (back, doubtful) both expected to be out, I think he is a viable punt play that gives you a piece of this Cavs team that has the highest implied team total of Tuesday night. (118.75 points) Both of these players missed Sunday’s game and Korver scored 20.5 DK points in 28 minutes vs The Lakers.
In fact this was the third time he has topped 20 DK points in his last four games. He should see roughly 25 minutes again off the bench and I think we see him score 20+ DK points for the second straight time, in this nice matchup vs The Suns. (3.8 opponent +/-) I am not thrilled about writing him up, but with very little punts to choose from tonight, Korver makes sense if you want to get in a high end stud.
Also Consider: Luke Kornet (awesome value play if Kanter was out. Kanter missed their last game and Kornet drew the start at center and scored 29 DK points in 34 minutes vs a tough Raptors defense. Tonight, he will be facing off against a very weak interior Mavs’ defense. The Knicks are in full tank mode right now, so hopefully they do us a favor and sit Kanter another game, which would put Kornet in must play status at his $3,300 price and would make plays Korver less necessary), Jae Crowder (quiet game vs The Pelicans on Sunday, but before this he was averaging 29.8 DK PPG in his last two. He should play right around 30 minutes and has a decent shot of meeting five times value, regardless of this being a tough matchup vs The Pistons), Jeff Green (he started for Hood last game and has a decent chance of getting 20+ DK points vs this Suns defense. I slightly prefer Korver at a cheaper cost, but Green is also a viable way of getting more exposure to this game, just remember, this is Jeff Green we are talking about), Ricky Rubio (37.8 DK PPG in his last six starts and has a prop score of 34.4 points, which would be right over five times value for him at this salary), Dennis Smith Jr. (before the blowout loss to The Rockets on Sunday, DSJ was averaging 37.5 DK PPG. This is a nice bounce back spot for him vs The Knicks, who are the worst rated defense over their last three games), Isaiah Thomas (30.3 implied score based on his Vegas props and this a positive matchup vs The Nuggets, who are a 3.64 opponent +/-), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (30+ DK points in four of his last five games. The minutes should stay very high with Ingram still out), Rudy Gobert (if you don’t include one bad game vs Marc Gasol and the stout interior defense in The Grizzlies, Gobert has been a beast averaging 49.5 DK PPG over the last two weeks. They will need his size vs Andre Drummond and this matchup is currently an opponent +/- of 3.77 points), Jonthan Isaac (minutes got bumped up to 25 these last two games and he scored 27.25 DK points vs The Clippers Saturday night. He will start again with Gordon still out and is a viable punt play, even though this is a tougher matchup vs The Spurs who will be getting LaMacrus Aldridge back), and Luke Kennard. (should start with Reggie Bullock doubtful. He lacks upside and this matchup vs The Jazz is very tough, but he should play 30+ minutes and could score 20+, which is something he has done in his last two games)