How’s it going everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 13th. Tonight is smaller slate than usual for a Wednesday, with only six games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,000)
Westbrook hasn’t been exploding (52.5 DK PPG in L3), but tonight is a potential blow up spot for him, back at home (1.3 more DK PPG), vs The Nets. He scored 71.8 DK points in OKC’s first date with Brooklyn earlier this season and this contest is currently projected to be the highest scoring of the night. (231.5 points) OKC also owns the largest implied team total (120 points), which is a number that has increased 1.2 points since the opening lines.
Westbrook has been awesome when the game total has been 230 points or higher at home this season (60.15 DK points) and when The Thunder have sported a team total of at least 120 points in OKC. (66.5 DK PPG in three occasions) He should flirt with a triple double and Westbrook is the high end player to own on Wednesday.
C: Deandre Ayton: (6,300)
In The Suns’ shocking road win over The Warriors on Sunday, Ayton was huge in the victory, with 38.75 DK points across 34 minutes. Outside of a clunker vs The Knicks last Wednesday (17 DK points in 25.2 minutes), which was the result of foul trouble, the rookie out of Arizona has supplied 41.4 DK PPG in his last four. In fact, that down game vs The Knicks is his only outing under 30 DK points in his last ten starts. Tonight, he will be at home, which has been meaningful for Ayton (1.9 more DK PPG), going against The Jazz, who may be a strong defense as a whole (3rd in efficiency), but they have given up solid numbers to centers all this season. (1.97 opponent +/-)
In Phoenix’s first meeting with Utah, Ayton recorded 31.3 DK points, which is just a hair under what he needs at his current price for five times value. His current Vegas props have him at 15.6 points and 8.7 rebounds and Ayton is just a mis priced value that needs to be attacked on Wednesday.
PG/SG: Avery Bradley: (4,800)
Even with Mike Conley back in the lineup these past three games, Bradley has continued to provide value. (26.6 DK PPG) He has been playing very high minutes since joining The Grizzlies (34.9 MPG in L7), which has obviously led to fantasy success. (32.9 DK PPG in L7) For Wednesday night, Bradley and The Grizzlies will be competing in a game environment that aren’t used to, going against The Hawks. So far this season, Memphis has been the slowest team in The NBA, compared to The Hawks, who are the fastest. (1.87 opponent +/-)
This is a massive 7.8 possession increase for The Grizzlies and they currently hold a 112 point implied team total, which is one of their highest marks of the season. In the four contests this season that Bradley’s team has received a possession increase of 5.0 or more, he has exceeded expectations by a huge 12.72 DK points. (29.06 DK PPG) $4,800 is a really appealing price for him and Bradley has the potential to return six to seven times value in this up-tempo setting.
PG: Mike Conley: (7,800)
I rarely ever target multiple Grizzlies, but tonight is the exception. Since returning from one missed game due to soreness, Conley has put up superstar numbers. (52 DK PPG) He has led The Grizzlies with a 30.9% usage rate in these three and The Hawks are obviously an outstanding spot for him. (2.86 opponent +/-)
In the ten contests he has taken on an opponent +/- of at least 2.5 points this season, Conley has been excellent (40.18 DK PPG) and he also hasn’t disappointed when The Grizzlies have been projected for 110+ points. (40.58 DK PPG in three games) He has tremendous upside and Conley is a discounted stud in this spot.
PG/SG: James Harden: (11,200)
As expected, returning home on Monday was exactly what Harden needed after his ugly night vs The Mavs on Sunday. (33.25 DK points) In 35 minutes of work, he produced 57.5 DK points in the win over The Hornets and The Beard is now averaging 62.6 DK PPG in his last four at home. Tonight, The Warriors are coming to town for their final meeting with The Rockets this season.
They will be without Kevin Durant (ankle), but this game will still be extremely high scoring (230.5 O/U) and competitive. (HOU -3) Harden has always shown up vs The Dubs (55.8 DK PPG in L6 vs GSW) and in the 11 Rockets’ home games this season that have possessed a game total of 225 points or more, he has contributed 63.57 DK PPG. He should score 55+ DK points and Harden presents a huge ceiling in this important tilt.
PG/SG: Stephen Curry: (9,200)
Curry benefits greatly from KD being off the floor (+6.8% usage) and has produced in this matchup vs Houston this season. (49.8 DK PPG in two meetings) His 1.41 DK PPM average sans Durant is the highest on the team and Curry also has been better when away from The Oracle. (2.3 more DK PPG this season)
After an extremely disappointing loss to The Suns on Monday, I think Curry responds with a huge effort in Houston.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (9,200)
Vuc’s consistency will always make him a viable play (50.3 DK PPG in L9) and he should feast on a Wizards’ front-court, that has allowed the 4th most RPG and 3rd most points in the paint this year. (2.67 opponent +/-)
He is averaging 43.3 DK PPG against them in three matchups this season and Vuc rarely disappoints when his opponent is this soft up front. (50 DK PPG in the 22 games that he has seen an opponent +/- of 2.5 points or higher)
PG/SG: Donovan Mitchell: (8,500)
If Ricky Rubio (questionable, hip) is forced to miss another game, Mitchell will certainly be viable vs The Suns. (2nd to last in defensive efficiency and a 1.28 opponent +/-)
In the ten games Rubio has missed this season, Mitchell has been brilliant as The Jazz’s primary ball handler. (44.45 DK PPG)
C: Rudy Gobert: (8,200)
The Suns are horrendous vs centers (3.25 opponent +/-) and Gobert also would see a boost if Rubio was out. (44.88 DK PPG in the ten W/O Rubio)
In his first matchup with Phoenix this season, Gobert had a 16/12 double double.
C: DeMarcus Cousins: (7,400)
Cousins hasn’t been great (32.5 DK PPG in L3), but his usage has gone way up when Durant has been missing. (+6.1%) The price tag is fair, but Cousins has 40+ DK point upside vs The Rockets. (1.65 opponent +/-)
SG: Klay Thompson: (7,200)
After back to back strong showings (53.75 DK PPG in L2), Thompson’s price has hit a high point, but he is still viable with Durant out. When Durant has been off the court, Thompson has taken on the biggest usage increase on the team. (+9.0%)
He is averaging 35.2 DK PPG against this Houston club this season and should retain value, with similar upside to what we have see from him over the last week.
C: Clint Capela: (7,200)
Capela has regained his form (38.3 DK PPG in L3) and The Warriors have been at their weakest vs centers this season (2.43 opponent +/-), particularly against Capela. (40.5 DK PPG in three meetings)
PG: Chris Paul: (6,900)
CP3 continues to let me down (30 DK PPG in L3), but he is too savy of veteran to not perform in this anticipated matchup with The Warriors. (48.3 DK PPG in two vs GSW this season)
PG/SG: Spencer Dinwiddie: (6,100)
Dinwiddie wasn’t need for much in Monday’s 28 point win over The Pistons (24 DK points in 25 minutes), but showed high upside in the two games before this (44.75 DK PPG and 30 MPG), which were both decided by single digits.
Tonight’s game vs The Thunder is expected to stay tight (OKC -7) and Dinwiddie should see roughly 30 minutes off the bench in this slate high total.When the game total has been above 230 points this season, Dinwiddie is averaging 31.8 DK PPG. (three games)
SG/SF: Terrence Ross: (4,900)
Ross has scored at least 31 DK points in three of his last four games and is playing against a fast and defensively inept Wizards’ team (1.23 opponent +/-), that he has exposed three times already this season. (30.5 DK PPG)
C: Jarrett Allen: (4,700)
If you want a cheap share of this Nets vs Thunder game, Allen is the way to go. He has been productive as of late (35.7 DK PPG in L3) and The Thunder have become a very weak defense against centers. (2.03 opponent +/-) In his first matchup with them, Allen tallied 32 DK points.
PG/SG: Delon Wright: (4,600)
Just like with Bradley, Wright has remained consistent with Conley healthy (28.2 DK PPG in L3) and The Hawks are certainly a plus spot for back up PGs. (2.35 opponent +/-) He should score 25+ DK points in this game.
SF: Royce O’Neale: (4,100)
If is Rubio inactive, O’Neale should draw another start in his place. On Monday night, as the starter for Rubio, O’Neale complied 34.5 DK points in 40 minutes of action vs The Thunder. Overall, in the ten full games sans Rubio, O’Neale has been a solid punt. (23.9 DK PPG)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com