What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 14th. For Thursday night, we get a solid six games slate. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (9,200)
As he always is, Vuc was a strong fantasy play last night vs The Wizards (44.5 DK points), but The Magic lost this game and are now two games out of the eight seed in The East. With only 13 games left, this Orlando club needs to win every game they possibly can, especially tonight, vs a terrible Cavs’ team, that is the worst rated defense in the entire NBA.
Vuc has already lit them up for 48.1 DK PPG this year (two games) and considering the circumstances, I think we see a 50+ DK point effort from him on Thursday night.
PG: Monte Morris: (3,500)
Isaiah Thomas has only played nine games in Nuggets’ uniform, but has already been removed from their rotation for “the time being”. Tuesday was the first game he was a DNP CD and in result, Morris was outstanding in the win over The Wolves. (34.75 DK points in 27 minutes) Yes, he may have gained a few extra minutes in the blowout (133-107), but either way, with IT presumably not playing again tonight, Morris is extremely underpriced. In the nine games Thomas has seen action this season, Morris has only contributed 11.06 DK PPG, but in the 57 games without 5’9” PG, he is averaging 21.46 DK PPG.
That is a significant difference and tonight with 25-30 minutes as The Nuggets’ primary back up PG, Morris should easily out produce his cheap price tag in this positive spot vs The Mavs. (1.61 opponent +/-) In his first two matchups with Dallas this season, Morris scored 25.4 DK PPG. Assuming HC Mike Malone stays true to his word about Thomas being out of the rotation, this low salary won’t last for Morris.
PF/C: Maxi Kleber: (3,700)
With Mavs’ HC Rick Carisle using a much tighter rotation in these last two, Kleber has logged a very healthy 32.5 MPG. He was great vs Houston (34.75 DK points in 31 minutes) on Sunday and then struggled against The Spurs on Tuesday (12 DK points in 34 minutes), but this type of playing time is rare for a player this cheap. Barring an injury or severe foul trouble, Kleber should continue to see 30+ minutes tonight vs The Nuggets.
The matchup is a solid one (1.46 opponent +/-) and he scores 0.81 DK PPM this season. Furthermore, in all the games Kleber has played 25 minutes or more, he is supplying 22.4 DK PPG, which would be a six times value return at his salary for Thursday night. His upside isn’t that great, but Kleber is value that needs to be utilized based off volume alone.
C: Marc Gasol: (5,900)
Serge Ibaka has been suspended three games for his fight with Cavs’ PF Marquese Chriss on Monday and the suspension will start tonight vs The Lakers. Him and newly acquired Marc Gasol have been rotating who starts at center for The Raptors and have essentially split all of the minutes since Gasol arrived. Now, with Ibaka absent, Gasol will start and should be in line for close to 30 minutes in this juicy matchup vs The Lakers. (2.47 opponent +/-)
He isn’t the same player he once was, but Gasol is still a solid fantasy producer (1.14 DK PPM) and with some extended run, he should provide value. He is averaging 35.1 DK PPG in two meetings with The Lakers this season and in the 59 games he was projected for at least 25 minutes, Gasol supplied 36.47 DK PPG.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (10,900)
Westbrook was magnificent last night vs The Nets (72.5 DK points), but now is in a very tough road spot vs The Pacers. (0.16 opponent +/-)
However, I still believe he is still very viable at this price and with many solid punts at our disopsal. This game has the smallest spread of this evening (OKC -1) and in the 16 games this season that The Thunder have competed in a spread of three points or less, Westbrook has done just fine. (54.14 DK PPG)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (10,200)
After missing a single game with a knee issue, KAT returned on Tuesday and scored 57.5 DK points vs The Wolves. His usage was at very high level in this game (42.2%) with The Wolves down Jeff Teague (questionable, knee), Derick Rose (questionable, elbow), Andrew Wiggins (questionable, thigh), and Loul Deng. (out, Achilles)
If they remain without all these players again tonight, I think Towns will need to be considered, even if he is on the road (-3.7 DK PPG) and facing a stout Jazz defense. (3rd in efficiency, but KAT is averaging 57 DK PPG against them this season, in three games)
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,000)
The 26 point win over The Wolves on Tuesday hurt Jokic’s playing time (38.5 DK points in 26.24 minutes) and there are blowout concerns again tonight vs The Mavs (DEN -11), but Jokic is still projecting as a solid value on his home floor.
He is averaging 52.9 DK PPG at home this season and 57.6 DK PPG vs this Mavs’ defense. (1.64 opponent +/-)
PG: Kyrie Irving: (8,900)
After a four game road trip in California, Irving will return home tonight for a strong matchup vs The Kings. He is scoring 46.3 DK PPG at home this season (3.6 more than on the road) and Sacramento is a large 4.3 possession increase for The Celtics. (2.02 opponent +/-)
Irving has been great when playing up in pace (46.46 DK PPG with a possession increase of 3.0 or more) and when The Celtics have been projected for over 112 points. (47.41 DK PPG, tonight they have an implied team total of 117.25 points, which is the second highest of the slate)
PF/C: Kevin Love: (8,100)
Love will return tonight after being rested on Tuesday and should play right around 30 minutes vs The Magic, particularly if The Cavs remain without Larry Nance Jr. (questionable, chest)
The matchup is difficult (0.18 opponent +/-), but Love is just slightly too cheap for his recent play. (42.5 DK PPG in L4)
C: Rudy Gobert: (8,000)
Gobert has posted back to back huge double doubles (44.75 DK PPG in L2) and this matchup vs The Wolves is a positive one (1.06 opponent +/-), that requires his size to guard Towns.
In The Jazz’s first three tilts vs them this season, Gobert was very effective. (48.3 DK PPG)
PF/C: Pascal Siakam: (6,900)
With Ibaka suspended, Siakam should see a few extra minutes and some time at center tonight.
He should play close to 35 minutes (TOR -10) and expose this Lakers’ defense for the second time this season. (39.3 DK PPG in first matchup)
PF/C: Al Horford: (6,300)
Returning back to Boston is also good news for Horford (4.5 more DK PPG) and when The Celtics just played this Kings’ team last week, Horford went off for one of his best showings of the season. (49.8 DK points)
Irving did miss this game, boosting Horford’s rates, but he should still have another productive game vs this weak interior defense, that has allowed the most RPG this season. (2.34 opponent +/-) In the 12 games Horford has gone against an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or better at home, he is averaging 37.3 DK PPG.
SG/SF: Joe Ingles: (6,000)
Ingles has been a very reliable option (33.85 DK PPG in L10) and will be on his home court, which has been a boost for him all year. (2.3 more DK PPG)
Plus, The Wolves could be very shorthanded. On Tuesday, without Teague, Rose, Deng, and Wiggins, they allowed 133 points to The Nuggets.
PG/SG: Jalen Brunson: (5,500)
Brunson had a career night vs The Spurs on Tuesday (34 real points and 49.25 DK points) and this was his 4th strong showing in a row. (35 DK PPG in L4)
The Nuggets are a great defensive team (0.26 opponent +/-), but Brunson could still score 25+ DK points tonight.
SG/SF: Terrence Ross: (5,300)
Ross was a huge let down last night vs The Wizards (13.75 DK points), but he has flashed serious upside recently, with four games of 31+ DK points in his last six.
With The Magic fighting for their playoff lives and this Cavs’ defense being the worst in basketball, this is a potential bounce back spot for Ross.
PG: Colin Sexton: (5,000)
With Matthew Delladova (out, head) missing these last three games, Sexton has been an awesome value (36 DK PPG), that is clearly too cheap, regardless of his opponent. (Orlando is a 1.08 opponent +/-)
PG: Tyus Jones: (4,200)
Jones got the start with Teague and Rose out last game and produced in a tough matchup. (27.5 DK points vs The Nuggets) If these two are out again, he would become a must play at this price.
In the six full contests Rose and Teague have missed this season, Jones has scored 26.71 DK PPG.
C: Ante Zizic: (4,000)
If Nance does in fact sit another one out, Zizic should see 25+ minutes vs The Magic in his absence. (1.28 opponent +/-)
Two games ago, with Nance out and Love active, Zizic started at center and supplied 24.25 DK points in 27 minutes of work.
SG: Gary Harris: (3,900)
Harris has also benefited greatly from Thomas being out. He scored 20 DK points in 28 minutes vs The Wolves in his last game with IT out of the rotation and is averaging 22.13 DK PPG in the 41 full contests without the PG, compared to only 6.18 DK PPG with Thomas.
Assuming this game isn’t a huge blowout, Harris should log close to 30 minutes and exceed 20 DK points vs The Mavs. (1.11 opponent +/-)
SF: Keita Bates-Diop: (3,500)
If Wiggins is unable to play, KBD should make another spot start in his place. In these last three without Wiggins and Deng (already confirmed out), Bates-Diop has been a great value (27.16 DK PPG), with some high playing time. (39 MPG)
The Jazz are very tough on wing players (0.71 opponent +/-), but KBD would likely still grind out 20+ DK points if starting again.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com