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DraftKings NBA Picks – March 15th

Happy Friday everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 15th. Tonight, we get a close to full slate, with eight games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG/SG: James Harden: (11,000)

Chris Paul will be rested tonight, which puts Harden back into must play status. Paul has been rather healthy, but the last time he missed a tilt, The Beard exploded in a very tough road matchup vs The Jazz (3rd in defensive efficiency), for 86.5 DK points. Overall, in the 22 games CP3 has missed this season, Harden has produced 67.97 DK PPG, which is almost a ten point difference for his average for the season. (58.7 DK PPG) His usage (+4.4%) and assist rates (+4.9%) both seen nice bumps when Paul is off the floor, helping to 1.71 DK PPM.

Tonight, Harden will be at home, which has been a big deal for him (5.5 more DK PPG), taking on The Suns, who are still the 2nd worst rated defense in the league. Harden scored 72 DK points vs them last month and should generate at least 60 DK points tonight, with massive upside, regardless if The Rockets are heavy favorites. (HOU -12) Harden’s price nearly hit $14,000 back in January when Paul was injured and he is essentially a plug and play at only $11,000.

Value Picks:

PG: Emmanuel Mudiay: (4,200)

On Tuesday, The Knicks lost another game, but Mudiay was excellent vs The Pacers (37 DK points in 32.27 minutes), who are the #2 ranked defense in the league this season. Now, with Dennis Smith Jr. (back) out tonight, Mudiay should draw the start, in a very juicy spot for PGs, vs The Spurs. They have struggled mightily with Dejounte Murray (knee) out all year (2.25 opponent +/-) and in the two games The Knicks have played without DSJ, Tim Hardaway Jr. (traded) and Trey Burke (traded) this season, Mudiay has chipped in with 28.13 DK PPG.

He logged 27.4 MPG in these two as the starter and should see right around that number again on Friday. Just back in December, before Smith Jr. was acquired by New York, Mudiay’s price hit a season high $6,900. He presents so much value at only $4,200 and can be used with confidence in all formats.

C: Andre Drummond: (8,800)

Drummond’s minutes and numbers have been effected by blowouts in his last three games (33.6 DK PPG and 27.6 MPG) and while The Pistons are in a double digit spread again tonight (DET -11), I think the big man will get back on track vs The Lakers.

First off, Drummond will be at home, where he is scoring 6.9 more DK PPG this season. Secondly, The Lakers are just an outstanding spot for centers. They play at the 4th fastest pace, compared to the Detroit, who ranks 22nd (5.3 possession increase), and they have allowed the 8th most RPG and 8th most points in the paint this season. (2.49 opponent +/-) In the eight previous home games that The Pistons have played up in pace and Drummond has seen an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or greater, he has bullied the other team. (53.34 DK PPG) He has 60+ DK point upside in this spot and is a very reasonable high option to pair with Harden on Friday night.

SG/SF: Eric Gordon: (4,900)

After Harden, Gordon sees the next biggest bump on the team without Paul. He has been contributing as of late (27.8 DK PPG in L4) and in all the games he has played with Paul and Carmelo Anthony out, Gordon has scored 33.75 DK PPG. (eight games)

He wasn’t available for the first tilt vs The Suns, but this Phoenix squad is appetizing spot for a gunner like Gordon, with them allowing the 4th highest 3P% this season. (1.21 opponent +/-) Gordon should approach 30 DK points and is a valuable play, with his SF edibility.

Also Consider:

C: Joel Embiid: (9,900)

In his first two games back from the knee injury, Embiid has looked like his normal dominating self. (54.87 DK PPG) Tonight, he is a prime spot, going against The Kings, who have surrendered the most RPG this season. (2.4 opponent +/-)

In his first matchup with them this year, The Process had a 29/17 double double. (62.8 DK points)

SG: Bradley Beal: (9,500)

Tonight, The Wizards will square off with The Hornets for the final time of the year. Every matchup they have had this season has produced a huge amount points and tonight’s tilt has an O/U game total 232 points. (2nd highest of Friday)

Beal is averaging 50.5 DK PPG in his first three with them and could see a slight bump to his rates if Trevor Ariza was out. (GTD, knee)

PG: Damian Lillard: (9,000)

The highest O/U game total of the night goes to The Blazers vs Pelicans. (234.5 points)

Lillard has done well vs this club this season (45 DK PPG in two meetings) and in the ten other Blazers’ contests that have had a game total north of 230 points, Lillard has supplied 47.25 DK PPG.

PG: Kemba Walker: (8,200)

Walker was incredible vs The Rockets on Monday (67.5 DK points) and hasn’t disappointed vs The Wizards this season. (51.1 DK PPG)

Besides Harden, Walker and Drummond are the best values above $8,000 for Friday night.

C: Clint Capela: (7,300)

Capela has done well with Paul out of the lineup (43.98 DK PPG) and this Suns team can’t guard any center. (3.32 opponent +/-)

PG: De’Aaron Fox: (6,900)

Fox has been a stud on this recent Kings’ road trip (46.3 DK PPG in L3) and this is the first time in 26 games he has been priced under $7,000.

The individual matchup vs The Sixers doesn’t rate well (0.75 opponent +/-), but both of these teams rank inside the top eight in pace and this game has a very healthy total. (231.5 points and he is scoring 36.28 DK PPG when the total has been 230+)

PG: Elfird Payton: (6,600)

Payton has posted a triple double in each of his last two games and is averaging 46.75 DK PPG in these first three since Jrue Holiday (out, ab) got hurt.

Now, with The Blazers coming to town and this game expected to be a competitive shootout (POR -7.5), Payton has 40+ DK point upside yet again.

C: Deandre Ayton: (6,100)

Ayton really hurt me on Wednesday (19.25 DK points vs The Jazz), but prior to that, he had topped 30 DK points in nine of his previous ten.

The rookie will be back on the road (-1.4 DK PPG), but they will need his size vs Capela and The Rockets. (1.69 opponent +/-) The first time The Suns played The Rockets this season, Ayton had a 15/11 double double. (35.8 DK points)

PG: Tomas Satoranksy: (5,800)

Satoranksy benefits greatly from being at home (6.8 more DK PPG) and has shown up vs The Hornets this season. (32.3 DK PPG in three meetings)

He had gone over 30 DK points in four straight games before Wednesday (19.5 DK points vs The Magic) and is a fine way to attack this high total.

SG/SF: Damyean Dotson: (5,000)

Dotson has been great (29.1 DK PPG in L7) and you have to expect his role to stay large sans DSJ.

I wish he was cheaper, but Dotson is a solid GPP target that should be low owned. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

SF/PF: Marvin Williams: (4,600)

Williams will return after missing Monday’s game with an illness, at the perfect time.

He has been excellent in the high scoring matchups with The Wizards this season (37.1 DK PPG in three meetings) and they will need him for big minutes, with Cody Zeller (knee) doubtful. (WAS is a 2.54 opponent +/-)

C: Ivica Zubac: (4,500)

Zubac has played a more consistent role lately (28.75 DK PPG and 23.9 MPG in L3) and his matchup for Friday is strong vs The Bulls. (2.88 opponent +/-)

In their last three games, Chicago has given up the 4th most points in the paint.

SG/SF: Gerald Green: (3,300)

Green should play 20+ minutes in Paul’s absence. In the 18 games without CP3 and Anthony, he has scored 19.89 DK PPG in 26.6 MPG off the bench.

Green isn’t shying about teeing it up from beyond the arc (6.2 3PA PG) and he should out produce this low salary vs The Suns.

C: Willy Hernangomez: (3,200)

Hernagomez got the start on Monday for Zeller and ended up playing 24 minutes vs The Rockets. (18.5 DK points)

That is a good amount of playing time for such a strong fantasy player (1.2 DK PPM) and if he sees 20+ minutes again, which seems likely, Hernangomez could produce six to eight times value vs The Wizards. (2.66 opponent +/-)

PG/SG: Alex Caruso: (3,200)

Last night vs The Raptors, Caruso was one of the most effective Lakers in the loss. (29.75 DK points in 26 minutes) He has seen at least 26 minutes in three of his last four (19.5 DK PPG in L4) and with LeBron James resting on the second night of a back to back, Caruso should play close to 30 minutes off the bench tonight.

He scores 0.85 DK PPM when James, Brandon Ingram (out, shoulder), Michael Beasley (waived), and Lonzo Ball (out, ankle) are off the floor and has a shot of 20+ DK points.

PG: De’Anthony Melton: (3,100)

Melton should get the spot start in place of Tyler Johnson. (out, knee) He scores 0.85 DK PPM and in all the games he was projected for at least 20 minutes, Melton is averaging 20.94 DK PPG.

While his upside is limited, if you need a full punt, Melton is totally viable.

*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

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