What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 15th, 2017. Wednesday night’s slate is a full slate with ten games on tap. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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SG: Devin Booker: (6,700) After seeing his minutes slightly cut back the last few weeks, Booker is now playing as much as possible, averaging 37.6 minutes in his last four games. He is back to being a high usage player with a 28.6% usage rate in these games, compared to the 25.8% usage rate he was posting the whole month before this stretch. Tonight he will look to keep up the hot shooting in a great matchup vs The Kings who have allowed the 6th most DK points to SGs this season.
They have also struggled defending outside shooters like Booker, giving up an average of 11.1 three pointers per game, which is the second highest average in the league this season. He should play 35-40 minutes tonight and score around 35 DK points, which would be a 5.2 point per dollar return at his current salary. If he keeps it up tonight, there is no way he will remain under $7,000 in the near future, and he is my favorite value play at a rather ugly SG position, excluding the expensive James Harden, who has serious blow out concerns tonight with a 17.5 point spread at home vs The Lakers.
PG: Rajon Rondo: (5,300) Bulls’ Head Coach Fred Hoiberg finally came to his senses and inserted Rondo into the starting lineup Monday night vs The Hornets. Rondo responded with 20 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and a steal in 36 minutes of action (39.75 DK points), helping The Bulls pick up a win against a playoff team after losing five straight games. Rondo really helped the first unit offensively and he has already been confirmed as the starting PG for tonight’s home matchup vs The Grizzlies. The matchup isn’t ideal with The Grizzlies allowing the least DK points to PGs this season, but they have been a weaker unit since The All Star Break, allowing their opponents to score a high average of 108.3 points per game. This expected to be a slow and low scoring with its O/U game total of 202.5 points, but this doesn’t scare me off Rondo at all, especially with back up PG Cameron Payne ruled out with a foot injury.
With Payne healthy, Rondo played 36 minutes with a starting role last game, so with him out, he should play around 35-40 minutes tonight. He will always produce when he sees a good amount of playing time, averaging 0.98 DK points per minute this season, and with a projection of 35 minutes, regardless of the matchup, he should return five times value with serious upside if he picks up a double-double or potentially a triple double. Also even with Payne out, his ownership should remain low just because of the general public’s perception that Memphis is an elite defense. Rondo is a smart player and he knows he has to play well and help this team win, if he wants to remain a starter for the rest of the season. At $5,200 he is a nice value play that has upside and I am comfortable with him in all formats on Wednesday night.
C: Al Horford: (5,700) Horford had a really off month fantasy wise in February, but he has started to bounce back over his last five games, averaging 31.2 DK points a night. His price has dropped significantly, coming all the way down to $5,700, vs the $7,200 he was priced just a month ago. Tonight he is in a very nice spot vs The Wolves who have allowed the 6th most DK points to opposing centers this season, with a solid current opponent +/- of 1.71 points. He should play 30+ minutes in this game that should be tight throughout, with its six point spread in favor of The Celtics.
This is a defense that Horford has already dominated this season, putting up 44 DK points vs them in a win back in November. Also it is a big boost that this game is being played at home in Boston, where he is averaging 5.7 more DK points a game this season. Barring any foul trouble, he should score 30-35 DK points, and is one of the safer center values of this ten game slate.
PF: Nemanja Bjelica: (4,400) Bjelica has been thriving as The Wolves six man for the last three games, with 30 DK points vs The Warriors, 20.25 DK points vs The Bucks, and 35.5 DK points in Monday’s win over The Wizards. He has been playing starter like minutes off the bench in these contests, averaging 31.6 minutes per game in this span. He fits perfectly for The Wolves when they are taking on smaller lineups with him at PF to stretch the floor. His high minutes should continue tonight vs a Celtics team that usually always plays small ball with only one natural big on the floor.
The defensive matchup is excellent for him with this Celtics defense allowing the 8th most DK points to PFs this season, with a current opponent +/- of 1.74 points. If he plays over 25 minutes he should produce, with him averaging 30.5 DK points in the last six games that he has logged at least 25 minutes. Bjelica isn’t the safest play, but there is upside if his role continues, and he is one the better cheap GPP options of the night, with his low expected ownership of 0-1%. (via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Jeremy Lamb (Batum is out again), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (35 minutes last game with Batum out), Kosta Koufos, Avery Bradley (His minute restriction was lifted last game), Nene, Ivica Zubac (should still play if this game is a blowout, played 30 minutes last game in a 28 point loss), Nerlens Noel (better if Wesley Mathews is out and he is starting), Buddy Hield (has played 30+ minutes in three straight games, and is playing way up in pace vs The Suns), Manu Ginobli (if Tony Parker remains out), and Myles Turner.