DraftKings NBA Picks – March 20th

Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 20th, 2017. Tonight we get a solid slate with sevens game on tap. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

PG/SG: James Harden: (12,700) Harden right now is making a very strong case that he is this year’s MVP, recording four straight triple doubles, and averaging 72.25 DK points a game over the last week. His rates have really jumped in his last four games, with his usage going up 2.9% and his assist percentage rising 5.1% from his season averages. Tonight he heads back home to take on a Nuggets defense that he just tore up on Saturday night, scoring 73.5 DK points in 37 minutes of action. This matchup couldn’t get much better for him with The Nuggets allowing the 4th most DK points to PGs, with a current opponent +/- of 4.35 points, which is the second best overall matchup for all of the players who are playing tonight, based on opponent +/-.

Also as you would have expected this is one of the better overall games of Monday night to attack, with its slate high O/U 236.5 points. The only thing holding Harden back is the chance of this game getting out of hand late, with 8.5 point spread in favor of The Rockets. But overall he is definitely worth a risk, just based on the game environment, with Harden averaging 64.15 DK points in the five games this season that The Rockets had an implied team total of over 120 points in a game with a O/U game total of at least 230 points. Even at this high of a price, he still has a great chance of returning five times value with huge upside, and is a terrific play in both cash games and GPPs tonight.

Value Picks:

SF: Taurean Prince: (3,500) Prince has really stepped up for The Hawks in three of his last four games, scoring 33.25 DK points vs The Grizzlies last Saturday, 32.5 DK points vs The Grizzlies again this past Thursday, and 24 DK points vs The Blazers on Saturday. The rookie has been seeing more playing time off the bench as of late, averaging 30.3 minutes in these three games, with SF Kent Bazemore out the last two games (knee), and PF Paul Milsap out in their last game on Saturday night (knee). Both players will remain out tonight, which should lead to Prince logging close to 30 minutes again tonight.

Over his last four games, even including his 8.25 DK points vs The Spurs, Prince is averaging 0.93 DK points per minute off the bench. With 25-30 minutes he should definitely hit fives time value in this great matchup vs The Hornets, who have allowed the 4th most DK points to SFs this season. There is 25-30 DK point upside here, especially if he can keep it up on the defensive end, with him averaging 2.25 blocks a game over his last four. There is no question he will be a very popular play (35-40% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but at a close to minimum $3,500, he is a player who needs to be strongly considered in all formats on Monday night.

PF: Juan Hernangomez: (4,500) With both Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari out the last two games, Hernangomez has been solid as The Nuggets starting SF, scoring 18.75 DK points vs The Clippers and 25.75 DK points vs The Rockets. He hasn’t been playing heavy minutes, but in these two starts he played 25.8 minutes and 28.4 minutes, compared to his 13.1 minute average this season. With both forwards out again tonight, Hernangomez is expected to draw another start and should play 25+ minutes vs The Rockets.

This will be the fifth game this year that Chandler and Gallinari have missed, and in the previous four, Hernangomez is averaging 26.19 DK points a game, which is a team high 13.1 DK point increase. By the numbers this matchup isn’t ideal with The Rockets allowing the 8th least DK points to PFs this year, but the minutes in he should see in this high scoring game (236.5 point O/U Vegas total) outweigh any concerns I have about his matchup tonight.

C: Richaun Holmes: (5,100) Nothing is official, but it sounds like starting center Jahill Okafor will be out or at least limited tonight, after only playing 12 minutes in yesterday’s win over The Celtics because of a sore right knee. (currently questionable) Holmes was huge for this team filling in after Okafor left, stuffing the stat sheet, with eight points, seven rebounds, five assists, four blocks, and two steals in 29 minutes off the bench. (36.25 DK points) If Okafor was out Holmes would be the next man up and hopefully draw the start at center tonight vs The Magic.

Even if Okafor did suit up, it would be hard to expect him to play more than 15 minutes, which would give Holmes 25-30 minutes in this very nice matchup with The Magic currently presenting a high opponent +/- of 4.3 points. Holmes is averaging just over 1.0 DK point per minute this season and, with 25-30 minutes, he should score 25-30 DK points vs this weak Magic defense. He would become a very strong play, if he was confirmed the starter with Okafor out, but would still be a viable GPP target even if Okafor is active, with the idea that he isn’t fully healthy.

Also consider: Tim Hardaway Jr., Jameer Nelson, Ersan Ilyasova, Kenneth Faried, Nene, Nik Stauskas, Ryan Anderson, Frank Kaminsky, Timothe Luwawu, Joe Johnson (if Hood is out), Enes Kanter,Kelly Olynyk, and Jamal Murray.