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DraftKings NBA Picks – March 21st

Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 21st, 2018. Wednesday night, we get a decent slate with eight games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com

Top Pick:

SF/PF: LeBron James: (11,700) Yet again, James dominated on Monday night, posting his second consecutive triple double in the win over The Bucks. (79 DK points) This was his third triple double in his last four starts and was the fourth straight game he topped 70 DK points. PF Kevion Love returned, but this didn’t effect James’ rates at all. Love will play again tonight, in another limited role, but The Cavs will be without center Larry Nance Jr. (hamstring), SF Kyle Korver (personal), and probably SG Rodney Hood (back) and center Tristan Thompson (ankle), who are both listed as questionable. Even if Hood and Thompson suit up, James will still carry on a huge workload in this big game vs The East’s top seeded team, The Raptors. They are one of the better defensive teams this season (4th in efficiency), but we are talking about a red hot LeBron James right now, who will be at home, where he is averaging 3.8 more DK PPG this season.

Plus, as I talked about on Monday, The Cavs Head Coach Ty Lue has stepped away from the team for health reasons and with him not controlling these rotations right now, James will essentially be able to control his own playing time. He has logged over 40 minutes in three straight games now and with this game having a small spread of only 1.5 points, James should see roughly those type of minutes again tonight. Furthermore, this game has the highest O/U game total of Wednesday night at 226 points. In the 11 other home games he has played in this season that have had an O/U game total of 220 points with a single digit spread, he is averaging 64.36 DK PPG. He currently has a Vegas prop score of 58.25 fantasy points and I think we see another 60+ DK game from LBJ. He is a tough player to fade right now and with a decent amount of cheap value plays out there, I think making LeBron a building block in your lineups is a wise move once again.

Value Picks:

PF/C: Cristiano Felicio: (3,800) In the last two games, The Bulls have given Felicio an extended look, with him starting and playing 29.7 MPG. As expected, he has been a much more productive fantasy player in these games, averaging 26.5 DK PPG. Starting PF Lauri Markkanen (questionable, back) should miss another game and veteran Robin Lopez will most likely be inactive again or play a very small role. Felicio has scored 0.88 DK PPM in these last two and with a projection of 30 minutes again, Felicio should easily exceed five times value vs this Nuggets defense that is the 6th worst rated defense over their last three games. (1.78 opponent +/-)

His ceiling is somewhat capped because he is a limited offensive player, but 20-25 DK points is a fair expectation and is a great return for him at this price. He is a very nice punt play tonight and is a flexible option with his PF and C eligibility.

C: Deandre Jordan: (7,600) Last night, Jordan played very in the loss to The Wolves, tallying a double double of 18 points and 12 rebounds, to go along with three assists, a steal, and a block in 32 minutes of action. (42.5 DK points) Tonight, he is a perfect spot to have another big night vs The Bucks, who have allowed the 4th most DK points to centers this season. As a whole, this defense has really taken a few steps back recently, ranking as the 4th worst defense in their last three games. They currently rate as one of the best matchups for any player in action tonight, at a very high 5.62 opponent +/-.

The Clippers are still in the playoff hunt for the final seed in The West and barring foul trouble, Jordan should log 35+ minutes in this contest that has a spread of only five points and the second highest O/U game total of the night at 223 points. He is currently the second best value on DraftKings via his Vegas props, with an implied score of 39.25 fantasy points, which would be a nice 5.2 value return at his salary. His price actually dropped $200 since last night and I think Jordan is a strong target for all formats on Wednesday  night.

PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (7,900) I understand I wrote him up and he didn’t end up playing last night, due to an “illness”, but I think this was just them resting him with last night’s game being their first contest of three straight games. He should be just fine and ready to go tonight at home vs The Pacers.  No, this matchup isn’t a strong one (0.52 opponent +/-) and he didn’t do well in his last game (18.25 DK points vs BOS on Sunday), but coming off three days of rest, Holiday should get right back to the heavy minutes and usage he was seeing before his rare slow game vs The Celtics.

In the prior four games, he averaged 48.6 DK PPG, 38.36 MPG, while seeing a 27.5% usage rate. Every game matters for this Pelicans team right now and if The Pelicans decide to rest some other players with this being a brutal three straight game stretch, Holiday’s role would grow even further tonight. He has shown us he can handle tough matchups recently, scoring 55 DK points vs The Spurs just this last Thursday and I am expecting him to have a 40+ DK point game tonight vs The Pacers even though this matchup could be better.

Also Consider: Cameron Payne (Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine are both out tonight. Payne has been starting Dunn’s place the last two games and averaged 27.75 DK PPG and 30.2 MPG. His rates should rise to another level with Dunn out and he is a nice target in this matchup vs The Nuggets who are a current opponent +/- of 3.64 points), Andrew Harrison (Evans has already been ruled out for tonight. Harrison will start and in his first game back on Monday, he scored 34.75 DK points in 31 minutes. He is now averaging 28.3 DK PPG in the 12 total games without Evans and Mike Conley), Noah Vonleh (over 20 DK points in four straight), Jeremy Lamb (Batum will be out again. He scored 31.5 DK points as the starter for Batum on Monday and is averaging 28.9 DK PPG in the 15 total games Batum has missed this season), Darren Collison (back to starting and scored 37 DK points in 32.46 minutes. His matchup is also very strong vs The Pelicans who are a 5.84 opponent +/-), Kyle O’Quinn (28 DK PPG in his last four and is in a nice spot vs The Heat who will be without their starting center Hassan Whiteside again. They currently are a 3.13 opponent +/-), Kevin Love (even though his minutes were limited to around 25 in his first game back, he didn’t look hurt in anyway, scoring 37.75 DK points. He is still in play if the minutes stay the same, that would become a really strong play at this price if they let him get higher towards 30), Ian Clark (as I said above, Holiday should play, but if Rondo was rested, Clark would play close to 30 minutes, bringing him into value conversation. He scored 25.75 DK points in 30.4 minutes last night with Holiday sitting), E’Twaun Moore (better if The Pelicans rest players), Rajon Rondo (just missed a triple double last night, putting up 57.25 DK points vs The Mavs. No revenge factor in this game vs The Pacers, but they need every win and this is a nice price for him at $5,700. He would also see a bump if a player like Anthony Davis was rested), Nikola Mirotic (if Davis is rested. He sees a big 7.4% usage increase with both AD and Cousins off the floor this year, resulting in a 43.5 DK point per 36 minute average), Cheick Diallo (27 DK PPG and 24 MPG in last two, and he would see a big bump and be viable in all formats if AD was rested),Kelly Olynyk (Whiteside is still out and this is a great spot for him vs The Knicks who are a 3.17 opponent +/-. He is better suited for GPPs, with his shaky floor and high ceiling, as we saw in his last game with a 60 DK point outing in the win over The Nuggets on Monday night), Bobby Portis (minutes can be tough to predict right now, but for sure his usage wuill be high tonight with LaVine, Dunn, and Marrkanen all out. He scores 41.21 DK points per 36 minutes with these three, Mirotic, and Lopez off the court) and Denzel Valentine. (sucked last game, but rates should be high without Dunn, Markkanen, and now LaVine. He sees the biggest usage bump on the team in this situation, at a 5.3% increase and is scoring 35.95 DK points per 36 minutes)

 

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