What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 21st, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with eight games on tap. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PG: Mike Conley: (7,600) Conley has been very consentient over the last week, averaging 46.5 DK points in his last four games. He has improved outside shooting in these contests, shooting 41% from three during this span. Every game is important for this Grizzlies team as the season winds down, with them now tied with The Thunder for the six seed and trailing The Clippers for the fifth seed by only 1.5 games. Assuming this game stays competitive, as it is expected to be, with its tight 2.5 points spread, Conley should play 35+ minutes tonight vs The Pelicans.
This is a very nice spot for him with this Pelicans team allowing the 7th most DK points to PGs this season (1.93 opponent +/-) and playing at the 9th fastest pace, which is a 4.7 possession increase for The Grizzlies who are the 3rd slowest team in pace this season. He should thrive from playing up in pace and score 40+ DK points tonight in this matchup. He is slightly underpriced right now at $7,600 and is one of my favorite high end values of this eight game slate.
PG/SG: Spencer Dinwiddie: (3,800) Dinwiddie has been the confirmed as The Nets starting PG for tonight’s game vs The Pistons, with PG Jeremy Lin doubtful with an ankle injury. Lin suffered the injury in their last game and after he exited, Dinwiddie filled in as The Nets primary ball handler, scoring 18 points, seven assists, two rebounds, and a steal across 30 minutes vs The Mavs. (33.5 DK points) Back up combo guard Sean Kilpatrick has been the player who has stepped up the most in the games Lin has missed this year, but he is also expected to sit out tonight with a hamstring injury. This is the first game this season that he and Lin have both been out, but in the 245 minutes that Dinwiddie has played with Lin, Kilpatrick, Luis Scola (waived), Anthony Bennet (waived), Bojan Bogdanovic (traded), Yogi Ferrell (waived), and Grevis Vasquez (waived) all off the court, he is seeing a 2.8% usage increase and is averaging 26.5 DK points per 36 minutes.
With all these players gone or out with an injury, Dinwiddie should play right around 30 minutes again tonight in a below average matchup vs The Pistons who have allowed the 9th fewest DK points to opposing PGs this season. But either way, regardless of this ranking, his individual matchup is really not a concern against Pistons starting PG Reggie Jackson. With this kind of playing time, Dinwiddie has an excellent chance returning at least five times value at his very cheap $3,800 salary. There is no doubt he will be of the highest owned players of the night (13-16% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but at this price, he is a hard player not to lock in your lineups with the minutes he should play, with both Lin and Kilpatrick out.
PF/C: Jon Leuer: (4,200) Leuer has been solid, averaging 23.25 DK points and 26.5 minutes in his last two games. He has moved back to the bench with Tobias Harris starting, but he should continue to see 25+ minutes going forward. 25 minutes is just enough playing time for him tonight in an elite matchup vs The Nets, who given up the 7th most DK points to PFs so far this season, with a current opponent +/- of 1.68 points.
He is producing 0.81 DK point per minute and even in a bench role, he should score 20-25 DK points vs this dreadful defense. The Pistons aren’t known as one of the best offenses in the league, but with them taking on this Nets team, Vegas is giving them an implied team total of 110.5 points. This is a great sign for Leuer, who is averaging 26.5 DK points in the two games this season that The Pistons have had an implied team total of at least 110 points. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but at only $4,200, he is a solid play that should succeed in this matchup.
SF: Vince Carter: (3,800) With SG Tony Allen (ankle) and SF Chandler Parsons (knee) both out, Carter should play close to 30 minutes tonight. He has been starting with Parsons out indefinitely with a torn meniscus, but he should see a slight bump in his rates with Allen also sidelined. So far this season when Carter has been on the floor without these two wing players, he has seen his usage rate jump 1.4% and he is leading this team with a +2.5 DK point differential. These aren’t huge changes but they should be enough to help him meet value tonight vs The Pelicans.
This matchup is nothing to get excited about with The Pelicans having a -0.36 opponent +/-, but with a projection 30 minutes he should top 20 DK points with him averaging 0.78 DK points per minute this year when Parsons and Allen have been on the bench. We obviously aren’t talking about The Vince Carter from 2005 here, but he has shown some upside in two of these past four starts, with 23.5 DK points vs The Spurs and 41.8 DK points vs The Bucks. Outside of Dinwiddie this slate is lacking many strong cheap values, and Carter, with an expanded role, makes a lot of sense tonight if you need the salary cap relief.
Also Consider: Matt Barnes (Iguodala is out), Noah Vonleh, Alex Len, Zach Randolph, Randy Foye, Robin Lopez, Denzel Valentine, Shabazz Muhammad, Rajon Rondo, Austin Rivers, Nikola Mirotic (should be low owned after his last game), Ish Smith, Caris LeVert, and Greg Monroe.