What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 23rd, 2018. Tonight, we get a full slate with ten games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,800) The Wolves are the seven seed in The West right now, but are only two games ahead of nine seeded Nuggets. They need every single win and Towns will continue to see very heavy playing time for the foreseeable future. He has played an average of 38.6 MPG in his last six starts and tonight he heads to New York to take on The Knicks who are currently a very nice matchup for starting centers. (3.68 opponent +/-) This is going to be his second and final meeting vs The Knicks this season, and in the first game, Towns dominated them for 58.3 DK points.
This game has the second highest O/U game total of the slate at 226 points and has a decent spread of 7.5 points in favor of The Wolves. Towns should see 35-40 minutes in this contest and score 50+ DK points with him having a current Vegas props score of 50 fantasy points. I don’t usually like targeting Towns on the road, but every game is crucial for them right now and he have a big night vs this weak Knicks’ front court.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,400) On Wednesday night, after Giannis Antekounmpo went down with an ankle injury, Parker started the second half and had his most productive game of the season, scoring 20 points, six rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block in a season high 30 minutes vs The Clippers. (36.5 DK points) The Greek Freak has already been ruled out for tonight and Parker should draw the start in the All-Star’s place. It’s unclear exactly what Parker’s limitations are right now, but with this being an island game and The Bucks still needing to win games as the eight seed in The East, Parker should play close to 30 minutes as a starter on Friday night.
Even playing with the starting five, Parker still saw a high 26.7% usage rate in Wednesday’s loss. In the 206 minutes he has played without Giannis this season, Parker is averaging 1.11 DK PPM, which is a notable 0.2 increase from his average for the season. Combine the higher rates with a projection of 30 minutes and Parker should be able to score 30+ DK points again vs this Bulls’ team that is beat up and in full on tank mode right now, rating as the 5th worst defense in their last three games. (2.55 opponent +/-) I think he is a viable target in all formats, that could possibly get a little overlooked. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
C: Rudy Gobert: (7,800) I know Gobert didn’t shine like we wanted him to last night, but the $500 price cut he has seen is just way too large for him right now. This is the first time he has been priced under $8,000 in four games and at this price of $7,800 he needs to score 39 DK points to reach five times value, which is something he has accomplished in eight of his last 11 games. His matchup tonight could obviously be better, as The Spurs are one of the better defensive units in The NBA, but if they are weak anywhere it is up front vs opposing big men. (2.82 opponent +/-)
They also tend to always have a natural big men out there playing center and Gobert should continue to log the high 36 MPG he has seen in his last four starts. It was odd to see him not post a double double last night and he should get right back on track tonight in that department with him having an O/U of 15.8 points and an O/U of 12.6 points via his Vegas props from Betonline.com. These props are giving him a very healthy fantasy projection of 43.2 points, which would be an excellent 5.5 value return at this new discounted price. He should approach 40 DK points in this game and I think he is a very smart and safe target with every game being very important for this Jazz team. (eight seed in The West, only two games ahead of The Nuggets)
SF/PF: Kevin Looney: (4,100) After starting PF Draymond Green (pelvis) exited Monday’s game vs The Spurs, Looney stepped up off the bench, scoring 30 DK points in 22 minutes of action vs The Spurs. This was the fourth game in a row that Looney has produced and he is averaging 26.5 DK PPG and 23 MPG during this span. Tonight, PG Steph Curry (ankle) will return, but The Dubs will still be without SG Klay Thompson (hand), SF Kevin Durant (ribs), and now Green who has officially been ruled out for this home tilt vs The Hawks. He most likely won’t start, but I think Looney is the big that has the best night for this Warriors front court with Green out. Jordan Bell has really been struggling since returning and even though he may end up being the starter over Looney, I think it’s Looney who sees the more playing time.
With Green out of this rotation, Looney should have to play roughly 25 minutes in this gorgeous spot vs The Hawks who are a high current opponent +/- of 4.42 points. He has been scoring 1.11 DK PPM in these last four games and with a bit higher playing time in this great matchup, Looney should exceed five times value once again. Since this is the last game of the night to tip off (10:30 PM EST), we more than likely won’t have an official starting lineup for The Warriors before roster lock, but starter or not, I think Looney is the value to attack in this front court right now, that could really surprise and have a bigger night if he started over Bell.
Also Consider: Khris Middleton (been terrific even with The Greek playing, averaging 45.9 DK PPG in his last two games. His usage should grow even more tonight with Giannis sitting and in all the minutes he has played without Giannis, Malcom Brogdon, and Greg Monroe, but with Parker on the floor, Middleton is seeing a 2.5% usage increase. He is priced correctly, but the upside is great vs this beat up Bulls team), Eric Bledsoe (I prefer Parker and Middleton, but Bledsoe also has nice upside with The Greek out. In this situation with all these players off and Parker on the floor, Bledsoe is scoring 40.13 DK points per 36 minutes), Justin Holiday (viable punt with Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Paul Zipser, and now Antonio Blakeny all out. I can’t guarantee high minutes, but at this price, Holiday should get five times value), Jamal Crawford (has stepped up his scoring and is averaging 27.1 DK PPG and 29.9 MPG in his last two games. His usage is up to 22.75% and he is in play at only $4,000 vs this Knicks defense), Donovan Mitchell (simply too cheap at $7,000. The Spurs are a strong defense, but he is averaging 40.4 DK PPG in his last four and scored 48.3 DK points in his lone meeting vs The Spurs this season), Nick Young (Curry is back, which will hurt his usage, but he will still start at SG and should play very high minutes. He has a decent prop score at 23.35 fantasy points), Joe Ingles (quietly this man is playing tremendous basketball. He flirts with a triple double on a nightly basis and is averaging 36.8 DK PPG in his last nine. As I said above with Gobert, every game is important right now for The Jazz and his price has dropped $400 to reflect this matchup vs The Spurs. I think he is in play in all formats and is a rather sneaky play, as most people don’t ever want to play Ingles), Trey Burke (viable GPP target as this Wolves defense has been really bad as the third worst rated defense in their last three games), Terry Rozier (tough matchup, but slightly underpriced right now. He is averaging 36.7 DK PPG in all the games he has started without Irving and Smart), Marcus Morris ($200 price drop and is averaging 27.9 DK PPG in his last three games), C.J. McCollum (too cheap right now and has a Vegas implied fantasy score of 32.35 points), Cameron Payne (hard to trust the minutes right now, but he will start at PG with Dunn and LaVine out. He is averaging 27.75 DK PPG in last three as the starter), Al-Farouq Aminu (been awesome scoring 38.3 DK PPG in these past four), Mike Muscala (decent play if Collins is out again. Under performed last night, but scored 20+ DK points in the prior two games), Al Horford (his usage has been low, but this a crazy price for him. He averages 32.1 DK PPG this season and scored 47 DK points vs this same Blazer defense earlier this season, which is a game that Irving missed), Dennis Schroder (what a disaster it was with being ruled out for rest hours after lock last night. It ruined many of my lineups, but if he is active he should be on your radar. He is averaging 39.2 DK PPG in his last four, scored 47.8 DK points vs The Warriors in their first matchup of the season, and has a decent Vegas prop score of 33.15 fantasy points), and Trey Lyles/Mason Plumlee (If Paul Milsap was out, whoever started would be a very viable punt play considering how cheap both of them are. Lyles averaged 25 DK PPG and Plumlee scored 21.87 DK PPG in all the games Milsap has missed this year)