What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 27th, 2017. Tonight’s slate is a solid slate with six games to attack. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:30 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
C: Rudy Gobert: (8,000) Gobert is on an absolute tear right now, averaging 52.65 DK points over his last five games. This average is a little inflated with some huge games last week (63.25 DK points vs The Knicks), but overall he has been a much improved player, averaging 41.9 DK points since The All Star Break. Over the last two weeks, he has been more involved in the offense, seeing a 3.2% usage bump during this stretch, and scoring 1.24 DK points per minute.
After being priced around $7,000 the last month or so, his price has increased up to $8,000, but he is still slightly underpriced right now, especially in this terrific matchup vs The Pelicans, who have allowed the 4th most DK points to opposing centers this season, with an opponent +/- of 2.47 points. Tonight he should play roughly 35 minutes and put up 40+ DK points, with him averaging 43.8 DK points in The Jazz’s two previous meetings vs The Pelicans this season. There is no doubt he will be heavily owned tonight, but in this matchup, he is one of the strongest plays of this whole slate and is a building block for me in both cash games and GPPs.
SF: Mario Hezonja: (3,200) With SF Jeff Green out the last two games with a back injury, Hezonja has been solid off the bench, scoring 20.75 DK points vs The Hornets and 19.5 DK points vs The Pistons. His minutes have been slightly up with him averaging, 25.5 minutes a night over these past two games, which is a decent sized bump for the 20 minutes he has been playing since PF Serge Ibaka was traded.
His usage hasn’t changed much, this recommendation is just based off the extra minutes he should see again tonight with Green already ruled out. The matchup is difficult vs The Raptors, who give up the 5th fewest points to SFs this season, but with 20-25 minutes, he should be able to meet value, with him scoring 0.76 DK points per minute when Green has been off the court this season. Hezonja definitely lacks upside, but at a near minimum $3,200, he is fine punt if you need the extra cap space tonight.
SG: Buddy Hield: (5,700) With The Kings playing for nothing at this point of the season, it seems like this coaching staff has given Hield the green light, with him taking at least 12 shots a night in his past five games. He struggled two Saturdays ago only scoring 14.25 DK points vs The Thunder, but since then he has been on a roll, averaging 35.8 DK points over these last four games. In these contests he has been posting a 24.9% usage rate, which is the second highest rate on this team, only trailing Tyreke Evans. Tonight he is taking on a Grizzlies team that is considered as one of the better defenses in the league, but surprisingly they have been vulnerable against SGs, allowing 8th most DK points to the position this season.
They would also would become a weaker unit overall if starting center, Marc Gasol, who is their best defender, was ruled out after missing last night’s game vs The Warriors with a foot injury. (currently questionable) This is far from a perfect spot for him, but if the higher usage continues, he has a solid chance of scoring 30+ DK points tonight. He should play around 30 minutes, but may be asked to play closer to 35, if Kings’ back up PG Ty Lawson was ruled out. (questionable, sore knee) He may also come with a depressed ownership level (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), with the general public usually fading most players who are going against this Grizzlies defense. It is hard to trust a player who relies so much on his shooting in cash games, but at his current salary, he is a great GPP play with the upside he has shown us recently.
PG: Tony Parker: (4,000) As he gets older, Parker is a tough player to predict, but tonight he is in a very nice spot to produce vs The Cavs, who have struggled defending PGs as of late, with a high current opponent +/- of 3.32 points. This is a big game for both of these teams, as they are both currently fighting for the #1 seeds of their conference, which should push Parker to playing 25+ minutes tonight, with this game having a small five point spread and O/U game total of 212 points which is the highest total of this six game slate.
The Spurs are usually always heavy favorites, but in the two games this season that they have been the favorite by no more than five points, with an O/U game total of at least 210 points, Parker has stepped up averaging 29.25 DK points a game. This is obviously a small sample size, but at his current $4,000 price, he only needs 20 DK points to reach value, which is something he should definitely do against this defense, assuming that The Spurs don’t blow out The Cavs tonight.
Also Consider: Zach Randolph (if Gasol is out), George Hill (showed us his low floor last game, but he should benefit from playing up in pace vs this Pelicans squad. Also would receive a nice boost if Gordon Hayward is out), Joe Jngles/Rodney Hood (if Hayward is out), Victor Oladipo, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, Nerlens Noel (only if he is starting), Ish Smith, Skal Labissiere, P.J. Tucker, ans Tony Allen.