DraftKings NBA Picks – March 28th

Welcome back guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 28th, 2018. Tonight, we get back to a full slate with eight games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,500) This game tonight vs The Hawks is a must win for The Wolves. They have dropped two straight games and are only 1.5 games ahead of The Clippers for the eight seed in The West. Towns will continue to see very high minutes and he should bounce back nicely in this excellent matchup vs The Hawks, after only scoring an average 40.1 DK PPG in his last two starts. This Hawks team has nothing to play for right now and they have been the 7th worst defense in the league over their past three games. They have struggled at defending centers all season and they currently are presenting a higher opponent +/- of 4.76 points. Not only is this matchup awesome on paper, but Towns will also be on his home floor, which we all know makes a huge difference for him.

He has posted some of the most dramatic home and away splits in the league throughout his career, and this season is no different, with him averaging 4.7 more DK PPG at home in Minnesota, compared to when he is traveling on the road. He has a current Vegas prop score of 48 fantasy points and in the nine home games he has faced an opponent +/- of at least 4.5 points, he is averaging 49.1 DK PPG. (via Fantasy Labs) Given the importance of tonight’s game and this strong matchup, Towns is the best high end value of Wednesday night’s slate.

Value Picks:

PG/SG: Shabazz Napier: (3,800) Napier will draw the start tonight at PG for The Blazers, with PG Damian Lillard missing this game due to the birth of his child. This is going to be the eighth game that Lillard has missed this season and in the first seven, Napier was a tremendous fantasy value, averaging 34.82 DK PPG in 35.8 MPG, which is 0.97 DK PPM. He will jump right into a 30-35 minute role in a plus matchup vs The Grizzlies, who have been the 2nd worst defense in the league over their last three games. (3.49 opponent +/-)

The pace of this contest will be far from ideal, with The Grizzles ranking dead last in pace this year, but no matter the game setting, Napier will easily exceed value at this cheap of a price and should approach 30 DK points in this spot. Simply put, Napier is a must have value play tonight, that should be in all of your lineups.

PG/SG: C.J. McCollum: (7,500) He was a disappointment last night in the win over The Pelicans (24.5 DK points), but just like with Napier, McCollum will have a much bigger role tonight without Lillard and is a very strong target at his current price tag. In the seven full games that Lillard has missed this season, C.J. has been the focal point of The Blazer offense, seeing a 4.3% usage increase and an 8.5% assist percentage bump, helping him to score 38.5 DK PPG. Before last night, McCollum was heating up, even with Lillard in the lineup, averaging 46.9 DK PPG, while seeing a 29.3% usage rate.

This is the kind of usage he will take on tonight and 45-50 DK points is certainly possible vs this Grizzlies defense that is the 2nd worst unit in The NBA during their last three games. (3.16 opponent +/-) He has a current implied fantasy score of 38.15 points, based on his Vegas props, which is right over five times value at his salary. (via Fantasy Labs) I love both Napier and McCollum tonight and will be using them together in the same lineups for this eight game slate.

PG: Isaiah Taylor: (3,800) Taylor stepped up as The Hawks starting PG last game, with PG Dennis Schroder out with an ankle injury, putting up a career high 26 points, while also chipping in with three assists, one rebound, and one steal vs The Rockets. (34.25 DK points) The Hawks lost by 19 points in this game and another blowout is possible tonight, with their opponent in The Wolves being favored by 11.5 points, by this didn’t his affect his playing time at all with him logging 32 minutes despite the game getting out of hand. So, competitive game or not, as the starting PG, with Schroder sidelined, Taylor should see 30+ minutes vs a Wolves defense, that is the 5th worst rated group this season. (2.51 opponent +/-)

SF Kent Bazemore (knee) is also out and in the three full games that he and Schroder have sat out this season, Taylor scored 28.83 DK PPG. He saw a very high 29.7% usage rate in this last game and with some new found confidence in his corner, I think we see Taylor score roughly 30 DK points this evening. He is one of the best point per dollar plays on the board, that can be used with confidence.

Also Consider: JaMychal Green (playing a higher 37.4 MPG in these last two. He is averaging 36.1 DK PPG in this span and should exceed value once again vs The Blazers, who tend to struggle vs opposing big men), D’Angelo Russell (before the bad game in his last time out, D Loading was averaging 39.7 DK PPG in his prior seven. Tonight, he couldn’t ask for a better matchup, facing off against The Magic, who are a high 6.09 opponent +/-), Jusuf Nurkic (his usage will go up without Lillard, but the matchup is tough vs Marc Gasol, assuming he isn’t rested, but the price tag is very friendly at only $6,400. He also has a Vegas prop score of 36.5 fantasy points), Josh Jackson (Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Tyson Chandler are all expected to be out again. Alex Len may also sit this one out with a sprained ankle. Jackson is averaging 38 DK PPG in his last five and is in a great spot vs The Clippers, who are a 3.76 opponent +/-), Donovan Mitchell (I don’t like this matchup vs The Celtics, who are the top rated defense this season, but Mitchell is averaging 42.1 DK PPG in his last six starts and every game is important right now, with them only a half game ahead of The Wolves), Wayne Selden Jr. (if Andrew Harrison is out. Selden would see more usage and he is coming off a great 37.25 DK point game vs The Wolves on Monday night), Rudy Gobert (49.25 DK points in his last start and this matchup vs The Celtics is currently rating as a 2.82 opponent +/- for starting centers), Trey Burke (exploded for 66.25 DK points on Monday night vs The Hornets with Emmanuel Mudiay out. Mudiay is expected to return, but Burke should still start and has a chance of getting value in this decent matchup vs The Sixers, who are a current opponent +/- of 2.92 points), Tyler Dorsey (25.25 DK points in 28.4 minutes last game without Schorder and is averaging 23.08 DK PPG in the three without Schroder and Bazemore this season), Dennis Smith Jr. (nice pace boost vs The Lakers, who are 3.0 opponent +/- for starting PGs), Lonzo Ball (if Brandon Ingram remains out. Ball is averaging 42 DK PPG and is playing a whopping 43 MPG in these past three with Ingram and Isaiah Thomas out), Al-Farouq Aminu (30+ DK points in six of his last seven games. Could see a small usage boost without Lillard),  Brook Lopez (over 30 minutes in six straight games and this matchup is awesome vs The Mavs, who are a higher 4.31 opponent +/- for starting centers), Troy Daniels (25.6 DK PPG in these past five with Booker out. He will start in Bookers place and the matchup is a good one vs The Clippers, who are rating as a 4.15 opponent +/- ), and Marquese Chriss (he is so tough to predict, but if Len is out, Chriss would likely start and would have to play 25+ vs Deandre Jordan and The Clippers, who are awful vs centers, sitting at a 4.42 opponent +/-)

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