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DraftKings NBA Picks – March 29th

How’s it going guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 29th, 2018. Tonight, we get a smaller five game slate. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (10,600) The Bucks are the eight seed in The East right now and even though there is a very good chance The Pistons don’t catch them (five games back), every game still matters for this team as they could possibly move themselves all the way up to the six seed during this last week of the season. As they should, The Bucks having been relying on The Greek Freak heavily, with him logging 38.5 MPG in these past two games, after missing one contest with an ankle injury. Tonight, he should approach 40 minutes again, in a road matchup vs The Warriors, that is expected to stay competitive throughout. (-5 GSW)

Not only does this game have a small spread, but it has the highest O/U game total of Thursday night, at 215.5 points. Giannis scored 56.25 DK points vs The Clippers on Tuesday night and even with SF Kevin Durant (ribs) and PF Draymond Green (illness) back for The Warriors, Antetokounmpo should exceed five times value with the heavy minutes I am expecting. He has a current Vegas prop score of 54.88 fantasy points (via Fantasy Labs), which would put him right over five times value. As we learned last night with Karl-Anthony Towns, relying on star players who still have things to play for this late in the season is a smart choice and I think building around The Greak Freak is must on Thursday night.

Value Picks:

PF/C: Noah Vonleh: (4,700) Vonleh has been a solid fantasy option as of late, averaging 29.25 DK PPG in his last two. With The Bulls season essentially over, they have been trying to give their younger players extended run and over the last two weeks, Vonleh has been seeing roughly 25 MPG. Tonight, he should see 25+ minutes again, with the potential for more if center Cristiano Felicio is out after leaving their last game early with back soreness.

He has been averaging 1.15 DK PPM in these last two contests and I think we see Vonleh exceed value once again and score 25-30 DK points in this matchup vs The Heat, which may not be a good matchup by the numbers, but it is one they will need his size. (1.81 opponent +/-) If Felicio is in, Vonleh is still a solid value at this price, but if the big man sat this one out, both Vonleh’s ceiling and floor would rise, making him one of the better values of this slate. UPDATE: Felicio has been ruled out and it wasn’t expected, but starting PF Lauri Markkanen will also be out with a back injury. Vonleh should start and have to play 30+ minutes. Its unclear if veteran center Robin Lopez will be active and play, but either way, Vonleh and Bobby Portis should both have to play much more and are excellent value plays. 

PF/C: Skal Labissiere: (5,200) Very much like with The Bulls, The Kings have accepted their season is over and they are making a commitment to playing their younger players more. With Zach Randolph being a DNP CD the last three games, Labissiere has played 30 minutes in each contest. As a very solid fantasy producer, at 0.95 DK PPM this season, the more playing time has really helped Labissiere fantasy wise, with him averaging 31 DK PPG during this stretch.

There really isn’t any reason for Randolph to be inserted back into this rotation and Labiserre should continue to play right around 30 minutes tonight in a positive matchup vs The Pacers, who are currently rating as a 2.96 opponent +/- for starting PFs. He is averaging 29.3 DK PPG in the last six games he has played at least 30 minutes and I am expecting a similar score vs this defense, with 35-40 DK point upside if he can notch a double double.

PG: Reggie Jackson: (4,800) His minutes have increased every game since returning from a knee injury that costed him most of the season and in his last start on Monday night, Jackson logged 28 minutes vs The Lakers. Given the matchup was a strong one, but he looked close to 100%, scoring 20 points, to go along with five rebounds, and three assists, while seeing a great 34.6% usage rate in the win. (31.25 DK points) Now, his minutes should slightly increase again tonight, with him not playing since Monday and no game tomorrow for The Pistons. I am projecting him for 30 minutes, which is plenty of time for him to produce over five times value in this decent matchup vs The Wizards. (2.12 opponent +/-) PG John Wall may return (questionable, knee), but if he is in, his minutes will most likely be limited, keeping this matchup as a positive one for opposing PGs. Either way, the bottom line is considering the player Jackson is and the type of usage he commands, this price is just too soft for the higher minutes he should see in his fifth game back.

Also, it may be something many people will forget since he was out for so long, but Jackson has always played better at home, which is the case for tonight’s tilt vs The Wizards. Over the last four seasons, he is averaging 32 DK PPG at home, which is a notable 4.26 more DK PPG. As I talked about above, The Pistons are five games behind The Bucks for the final seed in The East, but they are technically not out of the playoff race. Jackson is a key part of this team right now, helping them to two straight wins and I feel confident he will get us value in this situation.

Also Consider: LaMarcus Aldridge (if he is active. Before leaving last game early, he was scoring 55.95 DK PPG in his prior six. The Spurs need every win right now to stay in the playoff picture and if he is a full go, Aldridge has very nice upside in this big game vs The Thunder), Pau Gasol (he would if Aldridge was out. He is averaging 30.08 DK PPG in the six both Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard have missed this season), David Bertans (minutes were way down, but he saw 19 minutes last game with Aldridge leaving early. If LA is out, Bertans can be considered at this price, with him averaging 23.71 DK PPG and 26.8 MPG in the six other full games without Aldridge and Leonard), Dejounte Murray (better if Aldridge sits. Is averaging 27.42 DK PPG in those six without Aldridge and Leonard and he is averaging 25.1 DK PPG vs The Thunder this season, in a sample size of three games), Eric Bledsoe (35.25 DK PPG in his last two, which is right at what he needs to score to meet value. He will benefit from playing up in pace vs The Warriors, who struggle at defending PGs without Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, currently sitting at a high 4.41 opponent +/-), Bobby Portis (only if Felicio sits), Buddy Hield (down game in his last time out, but is still averaging 35.6 DK PPG in his last seven. His usage has been over 25% in all of these games and even though the matchup could be better vs The Pacers, he is in play at this price), Kelly Olynyk (if Whiteside is out. He is averaging 35 DK PPG in the 11 games he has played in with Whiteside and Dion Waiters out. The matchup is great vs The Bulls, who are the worst rated defense in The NBA over their last three games. If both Whiteside and Bam Adebayo are both out, Olynyk would be an awesome play in this matchup), James Johnson (if Bam and Whiteside both sit. He score 42.75 DK points in 33 minutes with both bigs sitting last game), Jordan Mickey (if both Adebayo and Whiteside miss this game. He drew the start at center last game and put up 16.75 DK points in 23 minutes vs The Cavs), Draymond Green (nice spot vs The Bucks, who always struggle vs centers. His rates will be elevated with Curry and Thompson still sidelined), and Sean Kilpatrick (14.5 DK points in 18 minutes off the bench last game. I feel like since they just signed him, his minutes should increase every game. As I said on Tuesday, he has always been a high usage player and even in his first game with The Bulls, Kilpatrick saw a 25.1% usage rate. I could see him getting 20+ DK points tonight and he seems like a decent GPP flier in this smaller slate)

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