What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 2nd, 2018. Tonight, he get back to a full slate with 11 games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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C: Joel Embiid: (9,400) This is the second night of a back to back set, which you think would hurt Embiid, but he has been just fine in these situations this season, averaging 49.7 DK PPG when playing in his second game in two nights. He hasn’t played against Dwight Howard yet this season, but he should do just fine in this spot, as The Hornets are the sixth worst rated defense in The NBA over their last three games. (2.26 opponent +/-) Also, with Howard being on the opposing team, this is a matchup that requires Embiid’s size and strength.
He should log 30+ minutes and should produce at least five times value in this spot, with nice upside, especially when you factor in that Howard is a player that Embiid might be extra motivated to play against. At the moment, he has an implied DK score of 46.2 points based on his Vegas props, which is right under five times value for him at this salary. With no reason to force Steph or KD in your lineups, with them in a serious blowout position (-13 vs ATL) and not enough cheap value plays I feel confident in enough to help me get Westbrook, I think Embiid is one of the better players to build around for this slate, assuming they don’t surprisingly rest him tonight. (his game tips at 7:00 PM EST)
PG/SG: Trey Burke: (5,100) His price has hit its season peak, but Burke is still a very viable play tonight. With The Knicks in full tank mode and playing all their younger players more, Burke has been excellent as their six man, averaging 38.6 DK PPG in their first three contests since the break. He is seeing 26.75 MPG and is posting a team high 31.2% usage rate, resulting a very effective 1.44 DK PPM average. Tonight, he will be on the road facing off against The Clippers. Both of these teams struggle on the defensive end and this game currently has the highest O/U game total of the night at 227 points.
The spread is 8.5 points in favor of The Clippers, but no matter how this game goes, Burke as a bench player and one of their younger players, he should log 25-30 minutes. There is plenty of time for him to still get us at least five times value even at this new higher price, with this matchup being a positive one, as The Clippers are current opponent +/- of 2.63 points for back up PGs. He has a decent floor and a very strong ceiling for his price tag and I think we should keep riding Burke tonight in this high scoring affair.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (4,700) As expected, Parker was limited playing on the second night of a back to back, only playing 18 minutes in the blowout loss to The Pistons on Wednesday night. (10.5 DK points) It didn’t make much sense why he played in this contest, but either way, with tonight not being a first or second night of a back to back set, Parker should be back to playing his normal role off the bench. Before Wednesday’s game, he was finding his groove, averaging 29.6 DK PPG in his prior two. His minutes went up each game, from 24 to 26.4 and tonight, he should see somewhere between 25-30 minutes vs The Pacers.
They are a strong defensive team right now (0.95 opponent +/-), but I still Parker has a good chance of topping 25 DK points coming off two days of rest and if they let him play closer to 30 minutes, he has pretty solid upside with the kind of usage he has been seeing. (26.7% over L3) He is a viable cheap target for all formats, that might get overlooked after his poor last game.
PG: Elfrid Payton: (6,800) Payton’s price has been cut $300 since his last game, bringing him down to $6,800, which is the cheapest he has been since being traded to The Suns. At this salary, he needs to score 34 DK points to reach value. This is certainly a possibility, as he is averaging 36.25 DK PPG in last three starts. Tonight, he will be at home, going against The Thunder, who have slightly slipped as a defense recently, currently presenting a decent opponent +/- of 2.38 points for starting PGs.
This game has a higher total of 225 points and even though the spread is concerning at eight points in favor of OKC, this game is at home and The Suns have actually kept games close enough lately that it doesn’t hurt their main players production. (6.3 margin of victory/loss over L3) He should play roughly 35 minutes tonight and should be able to get us five times value, with solid upside if he can pick up a double double.
Also Consider: Montrezl Harrell (29 DK PPG in his last two and this is a solid matchup vs a weak Knicks defense, that is a 3.12 opponent +/-), D.J. Augustin (playing time can be hard to predict, but he is averaging 31.21 MPG in last two starts, helping him to a 29.25 DK PPG average. If he plays this type of minutes, which is likely, with this game having a small spread of 2.5 points, he should be able to get five times value vs his former team in The Pistons), Otto Porter Jr. (43.3 DK PPG in last three, with a much higher 25.7% usage rate. The $7,00 price tag is nice, but the matchup vs The Raptors isn’t ideal), Lou Williams (nice bounce back chance vs this awful Knicks defense, that is the second worst in The NBA over their last three), JaMychal Green (34.8 DK PPG in last two and this a very nice matchup vs The Nuggets who are the worst rated defense over their last three, but he is questionable right now with an illness. If he is in, he is viable in all formats), Jarell Martin (35.5 DK points last game and would be a very nice play if Green sat, as he would likely start), Andrew Harrison (if active. He is averaging 35.3 DK PPG in last three and as I just said this Denver defense is struggling right now), Wayne Selden (will play and would become a very nice punt if Harrison sat), Zach LaVine (just too cheap at $7,100. He is averaging 36.1 DK PPG in last three), Dwight Howard (they should play him 30+ to matchup up with Embiid, but his minutes have been tricky lately and there is always foul risk vs Embiid. The matchup rates very well at a 4.26 opponent +/-), Nerlens Noel (ton of risk, but he played 15 minutes in his return. Only scored 11.75 DK points, but at this bare minimum price, we only need 15 DK points for value, which is possible for a player who averaged 0.98 DK PPM last season), Denzel Valentine (33.1 DK PPG in last two and SF Paul Zipser wlll be out again, keeping Valentine’s minutes around 30 off the bench), C.J. Williams (could make the case for him as he should start with Galo and Wallace out), and Draymond Green. (as I preached Wednesday, he is a better player on the road this season. He scored 43.75 DK points in the win over The Wizards and is now averaging 38.7 DK PPG in his road contests. The blowout concerns are very real for him and The Warriors, but this matchup is awesome, with The Hawks sitting at a 4.56 opponent +/-. He is the one Warrior player I would considering taking a risk on)