DraftKings NBA Picks – March 30th

What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 30th, 2017. Tonight’s slate is a solid slate with five games on tap. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:30 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PF/C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (10,900) Towns couldn’t be in a better position to dominate tonight, going against The Lakers, who have allowed the 2nd most DK points to centers this season and have a current opponent +/- of 4.81 points, which is the highest +/- for any player, regardless of position, on Thursday night. Also to top it all off, this game is a home game for him, which makes a big difference for Towns, who is averaging 5.6 more DK points at home in Minnesota this season.

The one worry about rostering Towns is that The Wolves are 10.5 point favorites, but he has been terrific in similar situations, averaging 53 DK points in the 20 home games that The Wolves have been the favorite this season.  At home he is averaging 51.1 DK points a game, but in this matchup I am expecting around 55 points with huge upside against this putrid Lakers defense.  When Russell Westbrook isn’t playing, James Harden will always be the top overall play, but with him currently dealing with a wrist injury, Towns is the stud I want to pay up for in this five game slate.

Value Picks:

C: Clint Capela: (5,600) Capela has been very consistent as of late, averaging 31.1 DK points over his last five games. His minutes have also been steady, playing 26.4 minutes a game during this span. Tonight he gets a very nice matchup vs The Blazers, who are currently presenting an opponent +/- of 2.32 points vs starting centers. He has already exposed this Blazer interior defense this season, averaging 33.4 DK points and 29.4 minutes in their first two games this year.

He is always a foul trouble risk, but if he plays 25-30 minutes tonight vs this defense, he should produce value, with him scoring 1.12 DK points per minute this season. His price has increased $200 since his last time out, but he is still slightly underpriced when considering how solid he has been recently. At $5,600 he is a viable play in all formats that will give you some exposure to this Rockets team that has the highest implied team total of the night at 115.75 points.

SG: Jamal Crawford: (3,900) Last night Crawford had to play a little more after SG Austin Rivers left the game with a hamstring injury, leading him to scoring 21.75 DK points in 29 minutes off the bench vs The Wizards. At 37 years old, his production can be volatile, but with Rivers ruled out for tonight, Crawford should approach 30 minutes in this great matchup vs The Suns, who play at the second fastest pace in the NBA and have allowed the 11th most DK points to opposing SGs this season.

The three time sixth man of the year has always benefited from playing vs up tempo teams, and tonight this matchup is a 4.4 possession increase for him and The Clippers in a game that has an O/U game total of 220 points. He has thrived in similar situations this season, averaging 26.75 DK points in the four games the Clippers have seen a possession increase of at least four and when the O/U game total is at least 215 points. He is not the most efficient fantasy player anymore (0.76 DK points per minute this season), but at only $3,900, he is a nice punt play tonight in this terrific matchup.

PG: Kris Dunn: (3,900) The rookie out of Providence has seen an expanded role off the bench the last four games, averaging 28.5 minutes a game during this stretch. He played like a rookie in the first game of these four, putting up only 11 DK points vs a tough Spurs defense, but he has been terrific ever since, with 33.25 DK points vs The Lakers, 28 DK points vs The Blazers, and 26.5 DK points vs The Pacers. In these past three games he has looked like a different player and it has shown, with him scoring 1.03 DK points per minute in these games, which is a huge difference from his 0.7 DK point per minute average this season.

Another encouraging sign is that all three of these games have been somewhat competitive, with The Wolves winning or losing by an average of eight points, which means that he isn’t just putting up numbers in garbage time and that The Wolves are planning on giving him significant minutes for the rest of the season. He is in a perfect spot to continue this little run tonight vs The Lakers, who have allowed the second most DK points to PGs this season. (1.28 +/-) Dunn recently played well against this same Laker defense, scoring 33.25 DK points vs them just last Saturday night. Tonight he should play 25+ minutes off the bench and return five times value with 25-30 point upside. Its hard to call him a safe play with not that much data to go off, but at this very cheap price, he is a worthwhile risk in GPPs with the idea that these trends will continue tonight.

Also Consider: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Stanley Johnson, Trevor Ariza, Noah Vonleh, Jon Leuer (if he is still starting), Tyler Ennis, Tobias Harris, Jared Dudley (better if Booker is out), Leandro Barbosa (if he is active and Booker is out), Al-Farouq Aminu, Denzel Valentine, Alan Williams, Nene, and J.J. Redick.