Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 6th, 2018. Tonight, we get a full slate with eight games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,200) Westbrook will always take playing his former teammate James Harden personally and tonight, at a reasonable cost for the reigning MVP, I think Russ is the top overall spend of the slate. In his last ten games against Harden and The Rockets, Westbrook is averaging 70.1 DK PPG, including a 60 DK point game earlier this season, which shows you he can handle going against Chris Paul. (1.55 opponent +/-) At this current price he needs 56 DK points to meet five times value, which is certainly possible, as he is averaging 63.5 DK PPG in his last three.
Also, this game has an O/U game total of 221 points and in the eight other games Westbrook has played in this season that have had a total of 220 or more points, he is averaging 58 DK PPG. I am expecting him to out produce this current salary, with huge upside if he can tally a triple double.
PG: Rajon Rondo: (6,200) It’s crazy it has taken this long for The Pelicans’ coaching staff to realize how important Rondo is to this team, but he has now played over 30 minutes in four straight, helping The Pelicans to four straight victories. In fact, in the last eight games he has logged 30+ minutes, The Pelicans are 7-1. As expected, with the expanded playing time, Rondo is averaging a great 40.5 DK PPG in these last four starts and has made The Pelicans a much faster team, with them ranking as the second fastest squad in the league over their last three games, nearly seeing three more possessions a game than their season average. As winners of four straight and with this team still fighting for playoff seeding, Rondo should see 30-35 minutes again tonight vs The Clippers, who are a solid matchup for opposing PGs. (2.27 opponent +/-)
With three double doubles in his last four starts, he is scoring 1.19 DK PPM and with this type of playing time, Rondo should top 30 DK points in this contest that is arguably the best of the night to target, with its slate high O/U game total of 236 points and tight spread of only 2.5 points. Lastly, this game will be on national TV, which is a big deal for a player like Rondo. He always performs at his best on the biggest stages and he could easily get us another 40-45 DK point game tonight, especially when you factor in that he is going against his former coach in Doc Rivers. His track record of putting up big numbers on national TV is no secret in The NBA world and he will be a popular play tonight (17-20% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but no matter his ownership, there is no way he should be ignored at this price. He is a primary value for me and I will be deploying him with confidence in all formats.
PF/C: Paul Millsap: (5,800) Millsap has been very effective in his return from the wrist injury, averaging 29.6 DK PPG in his last three. He was moved into the starting lineup last game and he is now averaging 26.6 MPG in these last two. His minutes should see a slight bump again tonight, with him and The Nuggets not playing since Saturday. They do have a game tomorrow, but I think we see him play a bigger role tonight and then limited or possibly rested for tomorrow’s contest. His matchup this evening is strong vs The Mavs, who have given up the fourth most DK points to PFs this season and are the sixth worst rated defense in the league over their last three games. (2.13 opponent +/-)
He is scoring 1.17 DK PPM since returning and with 25-30 minutes, Millsap has a good chance of reaching five times value vs this soft interior defense, particularly if they let him off his leash tonight with the intent to rest him tomorrow. The price has gone up $600, but he is still a good value at this price. He won’t be this cheap for long and I think we need to ride Millsap tonight in this nice spot.
C: Clint Capela: (6,800) Sometimes he can be a hard player to predict, but Capela has been consistent as of late, averaging 38.5 DK PPG in his last eight starts, which is a very strong number when you consider he has a low 15.75 DK point game mixed in this average. Tonight, he will be on the road vs The Thunder, which isn’t the greatest matchup, but it is one they will need his size vs Steve Adams and it is a matchup he has done well against already this season, with a 38 DK point outing in The Rockets first meeting vs The Thunder. Plus, with this game being on the road, The Thunder should be able to keep it close with the number one seeded Rockets.
Vegas is giving this tilt a small spread of only five points in favor of Houston, with a O/U game total of 221 points and in the 12 road games this season that he has suited up for that The Rockets have been favorited with a total of at least 220 points, he is scoring 35.5 DK PPG, which would put him right at 5.2 times value at his current price for tonight. Finally, via his Vegas props, Capela has an implied DK score of 34.3 points. He should exceed five times value in this competitive game setting, with a ceiling close to 50 DK points and is one of the best ways of getting exposure to this Western Conference showdown.
Also Consider: Kemba Walker (41.5 DK PPG in his last four and he will be at home, where he has been much better throughout his career), P.J. Tucker (low ceiling, but he should play 25-30 minutes to matchup with Paul George. He is averaging 18.5 DK PPG in his last two, which is right around what we need tonight), Will Barton (43.1 DK PPG in his last four and is playing The Mavs who are the sixth worst rated defense over their last three. He is averaging 36.2 DK PPG vs them this season in a sample size of three games), Frank Kaminsky (will start for Marvin Williams if he is ruled out. This is the first game of the night so we should know before lock and he would be a decent value play if he was confirmed starting), Lou Williams (fine way to get a share of this total. His matchup is a good one, with The Pelicans rating as a 4.54 opponent +/-), Austin Rivers (35.25 DK PPG in these past two, as his usage has been higher at 22.9%), Caris LeVert (exploded for 48.25 DK points in his last game, across 29.2 minutes vs The Clippers. He should benefit from playing up in pace vs The Warriors and he should still see minutes even if they get blown out), Otto Porter (I don’t like the matchup vs The Heat, but he is averaging 40.5 DK PPG in his last five starts), and Trey Burke. (usage went down last game, but minutes came back and were at 26.6. He is a GPP play only, but a nice target in that format, as he should come with a low ownership)