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DraftKings NBA Picks – March 6th

 

What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 6th. For Wednesday night, we get a huge slate, with ten games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

SF/PF: LeBron James: (11,300)

James let his guard down on Monday (49.5 DK points vs The Clippers), but that shouldn’t happen again, with this loss being The Lakers’ 5th in their last six games. Prior to Monday, James was supplying 64.14 DK PPG in his previous seven and The Lakers will now be without Kyle Kuzma (ankle) and maybe Brandon Ingram. (questionable, shoulder)

It sounds like Ingram has a decent shot of suiting up, but in all the time James has played without Lonzo Ball (out, ankle) and Kuzma this season, he has received a 4.4% usage increase. Nonetheless, LeBron can’t afford to have his team drop another game, especially at home and we should see a bounce back performance of at least 60 DK points from The King vs The Nuggets.

Value Picks:

SF/PF: Gordon Hayward: (3,900)

Last night, Hayward had his best game in a Boston uniform. In only 27.4 minutes off the bench, he scored a team high 30 points, to go along with seven rebounds, four assists, and two steals in a massive blowout win over The Warriors. (50.75 DK points) Back in January, when The Warriors came and won in Boston, an anonymous Warrior called Hayward a “liability” on both ends of the floor. He clearly was out for blood on Tuesday night and his 25.5% usage was the highest rate he has seen in 14 games.

Now, there is two ways this can go. The Celtics can resort to the selfish style of basketball we have seen from them over the last month or they can play as a team and ride the momentum from this win, which was easily their most important of the season. If the result is the latter, Hayward will again be a big part of this team’s chemistry and will make DraftKings look silly for pricing him so low in this up-tempo matchup against The Kings. (4.5 possession increase for BOS) We can’t expect 50+ DK points, but last night was a huge confidence for booster for Hayward and the reward clearly out weighs the risk.

PG: Rajon Rondo: (6,000)

Until Ball returns or his price approaches $8,000, Rondo will need to be in your lineups. Including a low 18 DK point performance vs The Suns this past Saturday, Rondo is scoring 43.8 DK PPG since reentering the starting lineup four games ago. He understands The Lakers need to win every game right now and even if this matchup vs The Nuggets is ugly (0.13 opponent +/-), Rondo should log heavy minutes and exceed five times value, with Kuzma out and possibly Ingram joining him on the sidelines.

Yet again, I think it is important to mention that this Lakers’ game will be on national TV. I may sound repetitive, but Rondo always takes his game to another level when on the national stage, especially with his team in dire need of a win. (52.4 DK PPG in L3 that were on National TV)

C: Dwight Powell: (5,900)

Powell’s price went up $700 to a season high, but he is still slightly too cheap for his current role as The Mavs’ starting center. In these last four since he got the starting nod over Maxi Kleber and Salah Mejri, Powell is averaging 36.8 DK PPG. He hadn’t seen 30+ minutes in a game before this run and in these past four, Powell is logging 34.4 MPG.

HC Rick Carlisle clearly believes and wants to develop him for the rest of the season and tonight, Powell is a great spot to smash value again, vs The Wizards, who are the 5th worst rated defense and 5th fastest team in the league, that has also given up the 4th most RPG and 4th most points in the paint. (2.63 opponent +/-) He has produced 1.1 DK PPM as a starter and this game presents a very high total (233.5 points) and small spread. (WAS -6) Powell is one strongest point per dollar values of the night, that needs to be utilized, as this may be one of the final times we see him at reasonable cost.

Also Consider:

C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (10,800)

No matter if he is home or away, KAT can’t be overlooked right now. (67.4 DK PPG in L5) His usage has gone over 40% in two of his last three games and tonight, Towns is in a positive spot vs The Pistons. (2.66 opponent +/-)

C: Nikola Jokic: (10,600)

Jokic will be in LA to face off against the desperate Lakers tonight. His home/away splits are some of the most dramatic in the league (6.7 less DK PPG on the road this season), but this Lakers’ squad is a dream matchup for centers. (2.61 opponent +/- and 5.2 possession increase)

Plus, this is a very high game total for The Nuggets this year (230 points) and in the six previous contests that have come with a game total of 230 points or more, The Joker has been great. (54 DK PPG)

PG: Kyrie Irving: (9,300)

Hayward stole the show, but Irving also had excellent night in the win over The Warriors. (46.75 DK points in 30 minutes) This was his 40th straight game of at least 40 DK points and this is a prime spot for a scoring PG like himself. (SAC is a 1.92 opponent +/- and 4.3 possession increase)

In the 11 occasions that Irving has played up in pace by 3.0 possessions or higher this season, he is contributing 45.57 DK PPG.

PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (8.900)

With Joel Embiid (knee) out, Simmons has been playing huge minutes (40.7 MPG in L3), which has resulted in some extra rebounding and huge DK scores. (57 DK PPG in L3) Embiid will miss another game tonight and Simmons should be forced into 40 minutes again, vs an awful Bulls’ defense. (1.35 opponent +/-)

Playing his second game in two nights has affected him this season (-2.55 DK PPG this season), but this is honestly irrelevant for Simmons and his insane volume.

PG: Kemba Walker: (8,300)

Walker has scored 44.9 DK PPG in his last six and has done well against The Heat this year. (47.9 DK PPG in two meetings)

Plus, he will be at home, which has been a boost for Walker throughout his career. (2.1 more DK PPG)

SG/SF: DeMar DeRozan: (8,200)

DeRozan has scored over 48 DK points in two of his past three and will be competing in the highest O/U game total of tonight’s full slate (234.5), vs the league’s fastest team, The Hawks. (1.75 opponent +/- and 5.4 possession increase)

Playing in this type of shootout is a rarity for The Spurs and in the three previous games that have had a total of 230+ points, DeRozan has produced, exceeding expectations by 1.82 DK PPG. (40.8 DK PPG)

C: Rudy Gobert: (8,100)

Gobert was one point and one rebound away from a 20/20 double double vs The Pelicans on Monday (48.25 DK points) and he gets to face this same defense again on Wednesday. (2.39 opponent +/-)

In two meetings with them this season, Gobert is averaging 51.1 DK PPG.

PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (7,800)

Holiday is just mis priced for his consistency. His opponent tonight will be The Jazz, who he scored 42 DK points against on Monday and Holiday is contributing 45.2 DK PPG in his last six, with 1.0 more DK PPG at home this season.

SF/PF: Tobias Harris: (7,600)

Just like with Simmons, Harris has been playing a huge role with Embiid sidelined. He scored 50.5 DK points in the win over The Magic last night and is generating 45.4 DK PPG in these past six without Embiid.

With The Sixers now facing The Bulls and Embiid still missing, it’s hard to envision Harris not surpassing five times value again.

PF/C: Kevin Love: (7,500)

With roughly 30 minutes a night in his last three, Love has contributed 43.37 DK PPG.

His usage has been high (30% in L5) and his matchup tonight is outstanding vs The Nets, who have struggled inside all year long. (1.2 opponent +/-)

PG/SG: Brandon Ingram: (6,800)

Ingram would be a very sneaky play if he ends up being active. Before missing Monday with the shoulder injury, Ingram was playing his best basketball of the year. (42.15 DK PPG in previous six)

Plus, he would see an increase to his role, with Kuzma now out. (0.1 DK PPM increase W/O Kuzma and Ball)

PG/SG Derrick White: (5,400) 

White has really turned his game up a notch (35.8 DK PPG in L3) and as I said above, it is rare to see The Spurs in this type of environment.

In the 13 Spurs’ games he has been active for, that have come with a game total of 225+ points, White is scoring 26.88 DK PPG.

C: Robin Lopez: (5,000)

Very quietly, Lopez has topped 30 DK points in seven of his last eight games (31.8 DK PPG)

Philly has obviously been weaker without Embiid in the middle (1.8 opponent +/-) and nobody ever want’s to play Lopez nowadays. (4.9% average ownership in L4)

C: Alex Len: (4,500) 

Len let the DFS world down on Monday (9.5 DK points vs The Heat), but he needs to be considered again with The Hawks down Dwayne Dedmon (doubtful, knee) and possibly John Collins. (questionable, illness) In the two before Monday, with Collins out, Len was producing a hefty 46.4 DK PPG and has scored 26.6 DK PPG in the ten full without just Dedmon,

He should start at center even if Collins plays and see at least 20 minutes, with room for more, if Collins is inactive. He scores 1.08 DK PPM this season and $4,500 is a very friendly price for him this slate high total.

PG/SG: Alonzo Trier: (4,500)

No Knick can ever be trusted, but Trier is heading to Phoenix, to play a 29th ranked Suns’ defense (1.03 opponent +/-) and in his last four, he is scoring 32.52 DK PPG off the bench.

I wouldn’t even go near him in cash, but Trier presents great upside for GPPs. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

SG/SF: Drew Bembry: (3,800)

Bembry has scored 20+ DK points in five of his last six and should be needed for 25+ minutes with Dedmon out. (22 DK PPG in ten W/O Dedmon) If Collins somehow misses another game, Bembry would be forced into close to 30 minutes.

I prefer if Collins was also out, but either way, Bembry is an okay punt that gives you more exposure to this projected shootout with The Spurs.

PF/C: Frank Kaminsky: (3,200)

After not seeing the court in four straight games, Kaminsky has been reinsertered into this rotation in The Hornets’ last two. As a solid fantasy producer (0.98 DK PPM this season), Frank The Tank has scored 26.3 DK PPG in 26 MPG in these past two tilts.

Assuming this role continues, Kaminsky is the best full punt of the night, even if The Heat are a difficult spot. (0.11 opponent +/-) In the five games he has seen at least 20 minutes this season, Kaminsky is averaging 22.25 DK PPG.

*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

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