How’s it going guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 7th, 2018. Tonight, we get seven games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,300) As he has been for basically a month now, Davis was a beast last night, scoring 41 points, 13 rebounds, three blocks, three steals, and two assists in the win over The Clippers. (73.75 DK points) He is now averaging 71.1 DK PPG in his last nine. Tonight, he will be playing on the second leg of a back to back. He has been fine in these situations this season, with a 1.57 DK point +/- and in the last time, he was playing in his second game in two nights, AD exploded for 93 DK points vs The Suns. As I have touched on quite a bit recently, The Pelicans are a much faster team now, ranking as the number one team in pace over their last three games.
This naturally makes every game they play higher scoring and this contest tonight vs The Kings has an O/U game total of 224.5 points. Not only should this game be a high scoring affair, but the matchup is also strong for Davis, as The Kings have been soft inside all season and they will be even weaker tonight, with starting center Willie Cauley-Stein out with a back injury. (3.75 opponent +/-) WCS is really the only player on this roster who has any chance of matching up with AD physically and with him out of the picture, Davis should bully Kosta Koufos, Zach Randolph, or any other body they throw at him. His price has dropped $300 since last night and I think Davis at $11,300 is the top overall play to build around for this seven game slate.
PG/SG: Isaiah Thomas: (6,000) It’s just another day of NBA DFS and another day that Thomas remains underpriced for his new role with The Lakers. In these first three games without guard Josh Hart (hand), IT has seen a very high 36.8% usage rate and is averaging 36.2 DK PPG in 29.4 MPG off the bench. His usage has been even higher than it was when he was having his career season with The Celtics last season and it has helped him to scoring an excellent 1.19 DK PPM. Tonight, this run should continue in easily the best matchup has seen since Hart went down, going against The Magic, who are the fourth worst rated defense and have allowed the fifth most DK points to PGs this season.
They have been even worse at defending PGs as of late, with a very current opponent +/- of 6.09 points, which is the best matchup for a guard on Wednesday night. He has already played this Magic squad three times this season, when he was a member of The Cavs, and is averaging 29.2 DK PPG in those first three. In these games, his usage wasn’t even close to the level it is at now and he should approach 35 DK points tonight, with a ceiling around 45. He is one of the best values available in terms of his Vegas props, with a DK implied score of 30.4 points and is an extremely strong target in all formats.
PG/SG: Donovan Mitchell: (7,300) Trust me, I understand that The Pacers are a strong defensive team right now, ranking 4th in efficiency over their last three games, but are they that good of a unit that DraftKings should have cut Mitchell’s price $800 since his last game? No chance. This is the cheapest he has been in over three weeks, when he faced The Spurs back on February 12th, and since then he has been making his case as The NBA’s rookie of the year, averaging 37.6 DK PPG and helping this Jazz team to a 6-2 record during this span. His usage has been up 1.2% since they traded Rodney Hood to The Cavs and he has been averaging 1.01 DK PPM in his last nine games.
As I said above, this matchup isn’t ideal vs The Pacers (1.09 opponent +/-), but it has the smallest spread of the slate at only one point, which should keep Mitchell around 40 minutes tonight, as The Jazz need every win they can get if they want to make it to the postseason. At this current price tag of $7,300 he needs to score 36.5 DK points to reach value, which is almost exactly where his current implied score is, based on his Vegas props, at 36.28 points. Every night he suits up, he has 40-45 DK point upside and I think Mitchell is a value that needs to be utilized at this discounted price.
PG: Rajon Rondo: (6,400) No, Rondo won’t be playing on national TV tonight, but we need to keep attacking him in this matchup vs The Kings. The trend of his improved play and more playing time continued last night, as he put up 35.75 DK points across 29 minutes in the win over The Clippers. He is now averaging 39.5 DK PPG and 32.9 MPG in his last five starts. It’s insane that sometimes they go with Ian Clark at the end of games over Rondo, but he should still log roughly 30 minutes, with this tilt vs The Kings only have a spread of 5.5 points. This is plenty of time for him to exceed value again, with him averaging 1.2 DK PPM in these last five games.
I am excepting 30-35 DK points and Vegas agrees, with Rondo having an implied DK score of 32.12 points, based on his current props. The Kings are a solid defense and this isn’t the best matchup for PGs (1.42 opponent), but The Pelicans new found pace out trumps any matchup right now (1st in pace over L3), as this game has an O/U game total of 224.5 points, which is a rather high total for a Kings game. Just like with Mitchell and The Jazz, every game matters for Rondo and The Pelicans from here on out. He has been a big part of why they are winners of nine straight and Rondo needs to keep being considered until his price tag goes over $7,000.
Also Consider: Kosta Koufos (foul concerns are very real vs AD, but he is averaging a decent 22.6 DK PPG in his last two without WCS and he should see a boost with this being a big 5.3 pace increase for him and The Kings. He is averaging 24.25 DK PPG in the four that both Skal and WCS have missed, but there is always a chance he could be rested), Skal Labissiere (if healthy and starting. 35 DK PPG in last two, but is questionable with knee soreness), Zach Randolph (if Skal is out and he is active and starting. Is averaging a whopping 44.25 DK PPG in the four full contests that both Skal and WCS have sat), Jabari Parker (25 DK PPG in last three and this is not a back to back set. He should log 25-30 minutes and he should benefit from playing up in pace vs The Rockets), Ben McLemore (will return tonight after missing Monday’s game due to a personal matter. In the previous two, with Andrew Harrison, Tyreke Evans, and Mario Chalmers all out, McLemore averaged 33.75 DK PPG and 34 MPG. It isn’t guaranteed he gets this kind of playing time, but with those three missing another game, he should see at least 25 minutes in this plus matchup vs The Bulls, who are a 4.44 opponent +/-. He is a very sneaky play, as most people probably have forgotten about him after he missed the last game), Dillon Brooks (over 30 minutes in five games and scored 26 DK points on a 29.9% usage last game with the Harrison, Evans, and Chalmers all out. Also, its odd for this cheap of a player, but he as implied score of 18.35 points based on his Vegas props), Reggie Bullock (was hurt by getting blown out by The Cavs in their last game, with 18.75 DK points, but before this he was averaging 28.9 DK PPG in his prior three, but fair warning, this Raptor defense is one of the best in The NBA, so he lacks upside), Larry Nance Jr. (Thompson is still out and he has a 31.2 DK implied score, based on his Vegas props), Gary Harris (should rebound nicely vs this Cavs defense is a 5.57 opponent +/-. He scored 45.5 DK points vs them earlier this year), Kyle Kuzma (29 DK PPG and 35.3 MPG as a starter for Brandon Ingram in these last two), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (been great with Ingram out, averaging 40.25 DK PPG and 41.8 MPG in these past two and this matchup is very good for him, at a 5.21 opponent +/-. He should be considered on playing time alone), P.J. Tucker (over 20 DK points in two straight), Paul Milsap (still hit value only in 19 minutes last night. This is his first back to back since returning from the wrist injury, so I would look for some clarification about his minutes before using him. But, this matchup is great if he is a full go, as The Cavs are a 6.03 opponent +/-), Justin Jackson (18.3 DK PPG in his last four. Out of nowhere he saw a 31.1% usage in their last game. Doubt this continues, but he is viable given the pace increase), Rudy Gobert (been eating at 51.4 DK PPG in his last three starts. His minutes have been up at 36.2 MPG and this matchup is strong, as The Pacers are a 4.69 opponent +/- for starting centers), Julius Randle (41.8 DK PPG in last seven. He is just too cheap once again), and Lonzo Ball (I like the other Lakers more, but he is still in play vs this weak Magic defense).