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DraftKings NBA Picks – March 9th

 

What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for March 9th. For Saturday night, we get a decent slate, with five games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (10,400)

Towns’ road woes came back to life on Wednesday (34.5 DK points vs The Pistons), but tonight, he is in the perfect bounce back spot, at home (3.4 more DK PPG this season), vs The Wizards. (2.64 opponent +/-) This defense has been atrocious all season (28th in efficiency), especially vs big men like KAT. (4th most RPG and points in the paint allowed) Additionally, they play at the 5th fastest pace, which is a solid bump for The Wolves. (1.2 possession increase) In their first meeting of the season, in Washington, KAT scored 55.5 DK points.

This game easily has the highest O/U game total of Saturday night (243.5 points, highest by 5.5) and The Wolves currently boast the largest implied team total. (125.6 points) In the four Wolves’ home games this season that the game total has been at least 235 points, Towns has been unstoppable. (70.75 DK PPG) Furthermore, he has been outstanding when Minnesota has been projected for 120 points or more. (63.08 DK PPG) This Washington defense has no chance of stopping of Towns tonight and I will be building around him in every lineup.

Value Picks:

C: Alex Len: (5,000)

The Hawks will be without Dwyane Dedmon (doubtful, knee) and Omari Spellman (out, ankle) again on Saturday, opening the door for Len. He has started in these last four games with either Dedmon or John Collins out (32.3 DK PPG) and will start again tonight, in a dream matchup vs The Nets. They have been dreadful at defending centers (4.16 opponent +/-) and this best possible matchup for a player this evening. In 25+ minutes, Len should produce close to a double double of at least 25 DK points, with a ceiling above 45.

Now, he is expected to be heavily owned (26-30% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) and we all saw two games ago how low Len’s floor actually is, no matter the opportunity.  (9.5 DK points vs The Heat) So, while he is one of the best values on the board and a no brainer for cash, if you are making multiple lineups for GPPs, I recommended fading Len on at least one. He is going to be such a chalky play, that if he fails, not having him in your lineup will automatically put you ahead of a good majority of the field.

PG: Jeff Teague: (5,800)

Teague has been great (38.75 DK PPG in L2) and should excel in this awesome matchup. (WAS is 2.09 opponent +/-) He also benefits from being at home (3.8 more DK PPG this season) and has been excellent when the game total has been north of 230 points this year. (32.03 DK PPG)

Playing up in pace has been big for Teague at home (31.8 DK PPG) and he should play 30+ minutes for the third straight game, with this game having a decently small spread. (MIN -7) He should surpass five times value and is the second best way to attack The Wolves, after KAT.

SF/PF: Gordon Hayward: (4,300)

Hayward has found a groove in these past two wins for The Celtics (37.25 DK PPG) and gets to face The Lakers tonight, who were a strong matchup to begin with (1.14 opponent +/-), but should be an even weaker defense, with the team basically calling it a season and lowering LeBron James’ workload. (only expected to play around 30 minutes) Hayward’s usage has been at 23.6% in these last two, compared to the 14.8% he was seeing in his previous six.

After back to back huge road wins over The Warriors and Kings, The Celtics now know Hayward needs to be more involved going forward and he should see a usage above 20% again vs The Lakers. He has flourished when he has been more involved (33.8 DK PPG in L7 with a usage over 20%) and Hayward should approach 30 DK points tonight.

Also Consider:

SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo: (11,300)

Giannis is a big favorite (MIL -12), but he has done rather well in this situation. (57.83 DK PPG when favored by ten or more) Plus, he will be at home (2.0 more DK PPG) and playing against The Hornets, who he has bullied this season. (62.3 DK PPG in three meetings)

Towns is the better high end value, but Antetokounmpo should be lower owned and is a fine pivot for GPPs.

SG: Bradley Beal: (9,700)

Beal was a slight disappointment last night (41.5 DK points vs The Hornets), but prior to this, he had topped 50 DK points in seven of his previous eight.

The price tag is fair, but Beal should produce close to 50 DK points in this high scoring matchup.

PG: Kyrie Irving: (9,000)

Irving will return tonight after missing one game with a hip injury. He is scoring 43.4 DK PPG in his last four and this is a big pace bump for Boston. (4.0 possession increase)

When Irving has seen a possession increase of 2.0 or more this season, he is averaging 46.8 DK PPG.

PG: Damian Lillard: (8,800)

Lillard was spectacular in Thursday’s OT win over The Thunder (76.75 DK points) and now, he gets The Suns, who are the 2nd worst rated defense in basketball.

He is averaging 43.3 DK PPG against them this season (two games), but the blowout concerns are very real. (POR -12.5)

PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (8,100)

Due to some blowouts, Russell has been hit or miss lately, but in a close game on Wednesday, he scored 43 DK points and played 32 minutes vs The Cavs.

Tonight, he gets to play The Hawks, aka the fastest team in the league (2.66 opponent +/-), in a tight projected game. (BKN -4) In The Nets’ first two meetings with them, D Loading cooked up 45.1 DK PPG and we should see a similar result on Saturday.

C: Jusuf Nurkic: (7,000)

The Suns are awful inside (3.39 opponent +/-) and Nurkic has a chance at a huge night, even if The Blazers do run away with this game.

When the opponent +/- has been 2.0 points or higher this year, Nurkic is scoring 38.15 DK PPG.

PG: Rajon Rondo: (6,700)

There has been no word of The Lakers’ plans with Rondo’s minutes for the rest of the season, and even though there’s a chance they are scaled back, I think he still needs to be considered in this revenge spot vs The Celtics.

He scored 42.25 DK points vs them last month and is averaging 37.6 DK PPG in his last five vs his original team. Oh, and this game will be on national TV.

SG/SF: Kelly Oubre: (6,100)

I think Oubre’s upside is limited in this tough road matchup vs Portland (0.76 opponent +/-), but that doesn’t mean he won’t provide value.

He has exceed 30 DK points in four straight and is scoring 37.6 DK PPG during that stretch.

PF/C: Frank Kaminsky: (4,400)

Kaminksy’s price has risen, but he is still viable in this new role off the bench. (23.3 DK PPG in L4)

The Bucks are a positive matchup for him (2.12 opponent +/-) and Kaminsky would most likely play into a blowout.

SF/PF: Maurice Harkless: (4,200)

Harkless lost minutes to Rodney Hood on Thursday (9.25 DK points in 21 minutes), but was on a great run before this game. (30.8 DK PPG in previous seven)

As the second worst defense in the league, The Suns are a great opportunity for Harkless to get back on track and the best part about it is that he will definitely be under owned after Thursday’s disappointment.  (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

SG/SF: Joe Harris: (4,200)

Harris hasn’t scored 20+ DK points in two straight games (17 DK PPG), but his playing time has remained high (29.8 MPG in L2) and he should produce in this matchup vs The Hawks. (1.78 opponent +/-)

In The Nets’ two first dates with The Hawks this season, Harris has generated 31 DK PPG.

SG/SF: Josh Hart: (3,800)

Brandon Ingram (shoulder) will be out tonight and is expected to miss the rest of the season. With him missing and James limited, Hart should play close to 30 minutes off the bench.

Kyle Kuzma (questionable, ankle) may also sit and if he does, we can expect very high minutes for Hart like we saw on Wednesday. (16.75 DK points in 39 minutes vs The Nuggets) In the last five contests he has seen at least 30 minutes, Hart is averaging 21.4 DK PPG.

C: Ed Davis: (3,200)

Davis has logged 20.5 minutes in his last two (17.5 DK PPG) and has been awesome vs The Hawks this season. (31.3 DK PPG in two meetings)

He scores an effective 1.05 DK PPM and The Hawks have given up the 6th most RPG this year. (1.84 opponent +/-)

PG/SG: Alex Caruso: (3,000)

With Ingram and Kuzma out Wednesday, The Lakers turned to Caruso for 29 minutes off the bench. The final result was a loss, but Caruso chipped in with 27 DK points.

If Kuzma does end up missing tonight, Caruso should play a similar role and will be viable at the bare minimum $3,000. (23.8 DK PPG in L5 with 20+ minutes)

*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

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