What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for March 9th, 2017. Thursday night’s slate is a decent sized slate with five games to attack. From now on I will be including an expensive player I like with my sleeper/value picks. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:30 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PG: Mike Conley: (7,400) Conley has been playing very high minutes as The Grizzlies make their push into The Playoffs, logging 37.6 minutes per game over his last five. As with any player the more minutes, the better, as he has now scored 40+ DK points in five straight games and is averaging 46.2 DK points per game during this stretch. Tonight he and The Grizzlies are at home in a big game vs The Clippers, who they are currently two games behind in The Western Conference. Getting the fifth seed is very important for both of these teams because it will most likely result in a first round matchup vs The Jazz, instead of The Rockets.
The Individual matchup isn’t great for Conley vs Clippers PG Chris Paul, but overall they have still allowed opposing PGs to put up numbers, giving up the 10th most DK points to PGs this season. Conley also has already exposed this defense three times this year, averaging a terrific 52.8 DK points in his past three games vs The Clippers this season. There is no reason why Conley’s extremely high playing time will not continue, and he should play 35-40 minutes and score 40+ DK points tonight.
PG: Patty Mills: (3,500) Tonight The Spurs will get SF Kawhi Leonard and PF LaMarcus Aldridge back after being rested last night, but they will now be without SG Manu Ginobli (rest), PG Tony Parker (back), and back up SF Kyle Anderson (knee). It is unclear if Mills will start in place of Parker, but even if he stays with the second unit, he should still hit value with The Spurs playing a tighter rotation. This is going to be the first game this season that all three of these players have missed, but in the five games that Parker and Ginobli have missed, Mills has stepped up, posting a 25.9% usage rate, and scoring 31.6 DK points in 25.8 minutes per game.
Tonight in a starting role or off the bench, he should play 25-30 minutes and return five times value with 25-30 point upside, in an average matchup vs The Thunder who give up the 15th most DK points to opposing PGs this season. He may end up being a popular play, but no matter what his ownership level is, he is a tremendous value that can be used in both cash games and GPPs.
PG: Reggie Jackson: (5,100) Jackson struggled with foul trouble last night, leading him to only playing 23 minutes vs The Pacers, but in the two games before this he was on a nice roll, scoring 31 DK points vs The Sixers, and 38 DK points vs The Bulls. Pistons’ Head Coach Stan Van Gundy has Jackson on a short leash but if Jackson plays well in the beginning of the game, he always has a chance of approaching 30 or minutes. Tonight Jackson and The Pistons take on The Cavs at home where Jackson has played much better this season, averaging 4.1 more DK points than when he is on the road.
If he plays 25-30 minutes, he has a great chance of hitting value in this nice matchup vs a Cavs defense, that allows the 7th most DK points to PGs this year, with high current opponent +/- of 3.87 points. Jackson also usually steps up against The Cavs, averaging 35.09 DK points in his last eight games vs Cleveland. He isn’t the safest play, but at only $5,100, he is one of my favorite GPP targets of this five game slate.
C: Steven Adams: (4,500) Adams let me down on Tuesday night, getting in early foul trouble, and only scoring 7.75 DK points vs The Blazers, but his $4,500 price tag is just too low. Even though he struggled last game to get anything going, he still played 29 minutes total in the loss. Also before this game he had back to back productive nights, scoring 26 DK points vs The Suns and 28.75 DK points vs The Mavs. Back-up center Enes Kanter is obviously the better offensive player, but The Thunder still need Adams for his toughness and defense.
So far this season he is averaging 0.89 DK points per minute and 27 DK points per game. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should play roughly 30 minutes tonight and score about 25 DK points, which would be a 5.5 point per dollar value at this discounted price. By the numbers this is a bad matchup with The Spurs ranking 13th vs centers, but just like Conley, Adams has played well against his opponent already this season, scoring 37.3 DK points in 33.4 minutes vs this same defense back on January 31st. He obviously has been very streaky lately, but we are getting a serious discount on a player who has been priced over $6,000 at times this year. He definitely has a low floor with his foul trouble issues right now, but the reward outweighs the risk tonight, at his cheap price and low expected ownership of 5-8%. (via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Jared Dudley, Sergio Rodriguez, Tyler Ulis (if Bledsoe is out, currently questionable with a knee injury), Jordan Clarkson, Danny Green/Jonathon Simmons, Larry Nance Jr., Pau Gasol, T.J. Warren, Alex Len, Justin Anderson, Jahill Okafor, and Enes Kanter.