gravatar

DraftKings NBA Picks – November 10th

What;’s up everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 10th. Tonight, we get a full slate, with eight games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,800)

After playing a few games clearly injured,  Davis finally exploded for a big night, scoring 32 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks, and a steal in a win over The Bulls. (71.75 DK PPG) Since returning from the elbow injury, his usage has increased in each game, going from 19.8% last Wednesday to 34.6% this Wednesday vs The Bulls. He looks to be over the injury and tonight, he takes on The Suns, at home.

They haven’t been the speedy team we all grew accustomed to the past few seasons (22nd in pace), but they are still very weak defensively (27th in efficiency), especially vs bigs. (6.57 opponent +/-) Additionally, on his home floor this season, AD is scoring a whopping 14 more DK PPG, and he is averaging 60.5 DK PPG in the last five times he has faced The Suns. We should see a 60+ DK point night from The Brow, especially if Elfird Payton makes his anticipated return. (+0.94 DK point correlation with Payton this season)

Value Picks:

PG: Elfrid Payton: (5,400)

Payton (ankle) is a GTD tonight after missing the last six games, but most signs are pointing towards a return on Saturday night. Excluding the game he got hurt (only 16 minutes), Payton was fitting in perfectly with The Pelicans, helping them to a 4-0 start, behind 36.1 DK PPG. Ever since, including the game he went down, New Orleans has struggled, dropping six of their last seven games. This would be an excellent time for Payton to return, with The Pelicans taking on The Suns, his former team, at home. Assuming there’s no limitations, he should coast through this matchup, and easily achieve five times value.

This is the cheapest he has been since opening night and at this salary, he only needs 27 DK points for value, which is something he has done in every full game he has played with The Pelicans. Be sure to be watching for an update on his status, because if in, he is an elite value play, that needs to be utilized in all formats. (game tips at 7:00 PM EST, so we should know prior to the start of the slate)

SF/PF: Dario Saric: (4,900)

After a really ugly stretch (didn’t crack 20 DK points in five straight games), Saric has regained his rhythm, averaging 32.5 DK PPG in his last two. There wasn’t an injury that occurred or anything like that, but he is back to playing starter like minutes. (37.8 DK PPG) Tonight’s game vs The Grizzlies doesn’t present a high total (210 points, lowest of the slate), but it should be very competitive (MEM –2), keeping Saric’s playing time high.

The Grizzlies have also been a decent spot for starting PFs so far this season. (2.44 opponent +/-) In 13 games, this only the third time Saric has been priced under $5,000 this season. If he keeps producing the 0.86 DK PPM we have seen in his last two games, Saric will end up being one of the best point per dollar values of the night. UPDATE: Saric and Robert Covington have been traded to The Wolves for Jimmy Butler. Butler will not be available tonight and The Sixers are going to be very thin up front. With Wilson Chandler still on a minutes limit, Amir Johnson or Jonah Bolden will likely start at PF. Johnson is a solid fantasy producer (1.1 DK PPM), but the likelihood of him playing over 20 minutes is low. Bolden is at a lower 0.86 DK PPM, but has the better chance of playing heavy minutes. This is a tough situation, but whoever draws the start, will be the better play.

C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (6,600)

Most of the prices are fair, but you are going to want some exposure to this Kings Lakers game on Saturday night. Not only does it have a small 5.5 point spread (in favor of LA), but it holds the highest O/U game total of the slate (239 points), by a notable ten points. Both of these teams rank in the top four in pace and are in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency.

Out of the Kings’ three main players (WCS, Buddy Hield, and De’Aaron Fox), Cauley-Stein looks like the best value due to price and matchup. (18th most TRPG, a 3.13 opponent +/-) WCS is having a nice season (33.5 DK PPG), helping The Kings to a 7-5 start. He has been at his best, when at home, averaging a large 11.2 more DK PPG in Sacramento. (40.1 DK PPG) Cauley-Stein is clearly underpriced right now and he is my preferred way of getting a share of this California matchup.

Also Consider:

SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (10,700)

If AD wasn’t on this slate, it would be all about Durant tonight. Both Steph Curry (ankle) and Draymond Green (toe) are out, making this mostly KD’s offense. In the six games these two starters missed last year, Durant saw a team high 5.9% usage bump and averaged 54.6 DK PPG.

The sample size is smaller and we don’t have any full games to go off, but this season has been even more dramatic, with him seeing a 13.4% usage increase and scoring 1.91 DK PPM in all the minutes he has logged without Curry and Green. The Nets have been tough on SFs (-4.57 opponent +/-), but this Kevin Durant we are talking about. He should flirt with a triple double and is the perfect GPP pivot of AD. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

PG/SG: James Harden: (9,700)

This is by far the cheapest Harden has been all season. He has struggled a little as of late (45.8 DK PPG in last three), but the minutes have stayed high. (35.2 MPG) Tonight, he plays The Spurs, who have struggled with opposing back courts all season. (1.93 opponent +/-) He isn’t my favorite option, but the price is just too enticing for the reigning MVP.

PG: John Wall: (8,800)

Wall has played very well on the road in his last two, putting up 50+ DK points in each game. The Wizards desperately need a win right now (lost last seven of eight) and the matchup couldn’t be better vs The Heat. (11.27 opponent +/-) This is the best possible matchup for a player in action, by 1.88 points.

PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (8,100)

It feels like LaVine is going to be a forgotten man in this slate (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but that should be the case at all, with him at home, facing The Cavs, who are the league’s worst defense. LaVine will dominate the usage (32.9%) and should score over 40 DK points.

PG: De’Aaron Fox: (7,100)

Fox was awesome last night, with 44 DK points in the win over The Wolves. This game is going to be extremely fast (SAC 1st and LA is 4th in pace), which is the perfect recipe for Fox to notch another double double and 40+ DK points.

SG/SF: Buddy Hield: (6,900)

Hield is just a different player this season (33.6 DK PPG) and it has been huge for The Kings’ success. Similar to Fox, Hield should be all over the place in this up tempo game and has a strong chance of returning value.

SG: Klay Thompson: (6,800)

In the five games Thompson played without Curry and Green last year, he received a 3.5% usage bump and scored 34.25 DK PPG. In this price range, I like The Kings’ guards better, but Thompson, just like KD, may go under owned(2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but has a very high ceiling.

PF: Jaren Jackson: (5,200)

Jackson has logged over 30 minutes in two straight, bringing him to a strong 37.4 DK PPG. Surprisingly, The Sixers have been an awesome spot for PFs (9.2 opponent +/-) and Jackson should get at least 25+ DK points tonight.

PG: Rajon Rondo: (5,100)

Would be a must play if Lonzo Ball was out. (questionable, ankle) Rondo would have to log 30+ in a fast paced setting that is perfect for him to drop dimes all night long. He is scoring 0.97 DK PPM this year and would likely return over six times value if Ball can’t suit up.

PG: Quinn Cook: (4,200)

Cook will draw the start for Curry tonight. He scored 20.3 DK PPG in the 24 Curry missed last season and he has topped 20 DK points in three straight, even with Curry in the lineup.

PG: Isaiah Canaan: (4,100)

Price is up, but he has played at least 30 minutes and is averaging 23.3 DK PPG in his past four. He should score over 20 DK points again, facing The Pelicans who are a high 9.23 opponent +/- for starting PGs.

PF/C: David Bertrans: (3,900)

With Rudy Gay (heel) and Pau Gasol (foot) out last game, Bertrans started and was great vs The Heat, scoring 31.5 DK points in 26 minutes of work. Both players will remain out and now, back up center Jakob Poeltl (ankle) will also sit. Bertrans will have to play over 30 and even though the matchup seems tough (-2.54 opponent +/-), The Rockets rank 20th in defensive efficiency as an unit. Bertrans is averaging 0.8 DK PPM this season and is one of the best punts this slate has to offer.

*Please note most of these stats and rankings are from FantasyLabs.com

PLAY THIS LINEUP

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.