Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 11th, 2017. Tonight we get a huge slate with 11 games. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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PF/C: Demarcus Cousins: (10,900) On paper, Boogie’s matchup vs Clippers starting Deandre Jordan looks tough, but they have struggled at defending centers this season, currently presenting an opponent +/- of 4.15 points. Cousins’ minutes have been very high this season (38.2), and with no game last night or tomorrow, and this game having a single digit spread (-6.5 NO) he should play 40+ minutes in this nice matchup.
Not only is this a good spot for him in terms of a match-up, but this game is being played at home in New Orleans, where Boogie is averaging 63.7 DK points a game, which is a 3.4 Dk point difference from when he is playing on the road. There are a plenty of studs in action tonight, but Cousins at home vs this defense, is my favorite high end player to pay up for this evening.
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (5,300) Williams was excellent for us last night, dropping 49.75 DK points on The Thunder, and there is no reason why we shouldn’t go right back to him tonight, with both PG Patrick Beverly (knee) and SF Danilo Gallinari (hip) remaining out. Surprisingly he didn’t draw the start at PG, but it didn’t matter at all, as he played a season high 39 minutes off the bench, leading this team with 35 points, on a 28.4% usage rate. He most likely will still come off the bench tonight, but he should still play 35+ minutes and see this kind of usage as The Clippers’ primary scorer with Blake Griffin.
His match-up tonight with The Pelicans is average (-0.81 opponent +/-), but as I said yesterday, there really isn’t any match-up in the league that should stop you from rostering Williams in this type of role. He probably won’t approach 50 DK points again, but he should have no problems topping 30 DK points, making him the best value of this entire slate. At a reasonable price of $5,300 and multiple position eligibility, Williams is a primary play on Saturday night.
PG/SG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (5,400) The Mavs aren’t usually a team I target, but tonight I want a share of them vs this horrid Cavalier defense. It’s really getting out of hand from a real basketball perspective as this defense has now allowed every single one of their opponents to score over 110 points this season. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency and have been the worst team in league at defending at PGs (11.06 opponent +/-), which is perfect for Smith Jr., who is coming off his best game as a pro, tallying a near triple double of 22 points, eight assists, eight rebounds, and one steal in a big road win over The Wizards on Tuesday night. (45.5 DK points)
Even as a rookie, Smith Jr. has been leading this team in usage this season, at 29.5%. His minutes can sometimes be hard to predict, but this home game vs The Cavs is expected to stay close, with The Cavs only favored by six points. In the four Mavs’ games that haven’t been decided by double digit points this season, Smith Jr. is averaging 30.75 minutes a game. Playing around 30 minutes vs this defense, I think we see the rookie put up 30-35 DK points, with 40 DK point upside. He is my favorite way of getting exposure to this Mavs team tonight (105 implied team total), especially with his low projected ownership of 2-4% in GPPs.
PG: Shelvin Mack: (3,700) The Magic are being cautious with starting PG Elfrid Payton’s hamstring, and he will sit out tonight’s game vs The Nuggets. With PG D.J. Augustin also out with a hamstring injury, this opens the door for Mack to handle most of the PG responsibilities for The Magic on this second night of a back to back. It’s unclear if he will start for Payton, as they have sometimes started Jonathon Simmons at the one, but regardless if he starts or not, Mack should log around 30 minutes with this team so shorthanded on ball handlers.
This season he is averaging 0.83 DK points per minute and in a projection 30 minutes, Mack should crush value even in this matchup vs Nuggets, that currently doesn’t rate well for PGs. (-2.42 opponent +/-) He should easily score 20+ DK points, and is a plug and play value for this 11 game slate.
Also Consider: John Henson, Ekpe Udoh (is a pure punt if he starts for Gobert), Derick Favors (should see a nice uptick in his rates with Gobert out and the matchup couldn’t be better as The Nets are currently rating as a 10.64 opponent +/-), Donovan Mitchell (his shooting woes continued last night, but joined the starting lineup and played a season high 36 minutes. He should start again and see a bump in usage with Gobert out. Oh, and don’t forget he is playing The Nets who rank first in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency), Trevor Ariza, Wesley Johnson, John Collins (30+ DK points in three of his last four), Jamal Murray/Will Barton (would both see bumps if Gary Harris was out. Barton would have a very high ceiling if he started), Frank Ntilikina, Jonathon Simmons (3.6% usage increase with Payton and Augustin off the floor), Brandon Paul (26.6 DK points in the two games Manu has sat this season), and Harrison Barnes.