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DraftKings NBA Picks – November 12th

Welcome back guys.. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 12th. Tonight is a full slate, with nine games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (11,000)

Durant did his job with Steph Curry (ankle) and Draymond Green (toe) out Saturday night vs The Nets, scoring 57.75 DK points in only 30 minutes of work. Curry will be out again and Green is questionable. Even in the event that Green plays, KD still is the top overall play. In the minutes he has played with Green, but not Curry, Durant is seeing a 36.8% usage rate and is averaging 1.3 DK PPM.

Tonight, his matchup vs The Clippers is subpar (13th in efficiency), but due to the injuries and this game being on the road, Vegas is only giving it a spread of three points, which should bring Durant’s minutes into the upper 30s. With or without Green, we are looking at 55-65 DK points from Durant and with a decent amount of viable punts out there, I think building around the back to back Finals’ MVP is a wise move.

Value Picks:

C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (8,900)

KAT is fresh off a 66.75 DK point showing vs The Kings on Friday and now, with Jimmy Butler traded to The Sixers, he should see a much bigger workload for the rest of the season. In all the time he has played without Butler this season, Towns has seen a 3.3% usage increase and is scoring 1.5 DK PPM, which is a huge 0.3 DK PPM jump from his season average. Tonight, he will be back home, where he is producing 6.8 more DK PPG, taking on The Nets, who are 21st in defensive efficiency this season.

Furthermore, they are giving up the 10th most RPG. (2.75 opponent +/-)  Towns should dominate in this matchup and is a lock for at least 45 DK points. This will certainly be the last time we see Towns even close to this cheap for the rest of the season and he is a player who must been attacked on Monday night.

PG: Landry Shamet: (3,400)

In the wake of Dario Saric and Robert Covington getting traded to Minnesota, Shamet, the rookie out of Wichita State, logged 42 minutes in Saturday’s overtime loss to The Grizzlies. (18.5 DK points) Even if we eliminate five overtime minutes from his total, Shamet still led this Sixers’ club in playing time. With Butler not expected to be available until Wednesday, Shamet should play 35+ again tonight vs The Heat.

He is only scoring 0.6 DK PPM this season, but he attempted 13 shots on Saturday night, including 11 from beyond the arc. His shooting should improve vs this Heat defense, that has been one of the worst units in the league at defending backcourts. (6.78 opponent +/-) He lacks upside, but based off playing time alone, Shamet needs to be considered at a near minimum price tag.

PG/SG: Derick Rose: (7,500)

As I talked about on Twitter Saturday, this Butler to Philly deal opens up a huge door for Rose to fully resurrect his career. He is going to garner a big usage rate and play high minutes for this offense, even when Jeff Teague (knee) returns. He is sitting on a one year veteran’s minimum deal right now and he knows if he continues this story book come back season, he will be looking at a pretty solid contract next summer. Teague has already been confirmed out for tonight, keeping Rose as the starting PG for this home tilt vs The Nets.

In the five games he has started for Teague, Rose is averaging 36.4 DK PPG and in the lone game he started without both Teague and Butler, the former MVP exploded for a career high 50 points vs The Jazz. (67 DK points) In the 106 minutes Rose has played without Butler and Teague this year, he is leading this offense with a huge 36.5% usage rate and is producing 1.43 DK PPM. To put this into context, James Harden, The NBA’s leading player in usage, only averages a 34.1% usage rate this season. Even at a new season high DraftKings’ price, Rose is an extremely hard player to ignore tonight. He has a floor around 35 DK points, with a ceiling over 50. UPDATE: Teague originally was ruled out, but then went through shootaround and is now a GTD. The same thing goes for Andrew Wiggins (GTD, quad), and if either sit, Rose will remain in play for this slate.

Also Consider:

C: Joel Embiid: (10,100)

Sans Saric and Covington, Embiid played 39 minutes in The OT loss to The Grizzlies. (44 DK point) The end result wasn’t great, but this was an ugly matchup vs Marc Gasol. Tonight, he is in a much better spot, facing The Heat. (3.44 opponent +/-)

PG: John Wall: (8,600)

Wall is a steal at this salary. The Wizards are a joke of a team this season, but Wall is doing everything he can on offense, averaging 50.6 DK PPG in his last four. Now, he is back at home (2.6 more DK PPG), going against a weak Magic defense. (1.96 opponent +/-)

C: Nikola Vucevic: (8,500)

Last night, with Aaron Gordon (ankle) out, Vuc scored 45 DK points vs The Knicks, behind a 30.9% usage rate. Gordon is questionable and if he was to sit again, Vucevic should eat this Wizards’ defense alive. (2.29 opponent +/-, 28th in efficiency, 8th in pace)

PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (8,300)

LaVine put up 45.5 DK points vs The Cavs on Saturday and tonight, he is another awesome situation, taking on The Mavs at home. (5.96 opponent +/-, 26th in defensive efficiency) The Mavs should be even softer without Wesley Matthews (hamstring) and LaVine should top 40 DK points.

PF/C: Serge Ibaka: (6,000)

The  Raptors like to switch it up and sometimes bring Ibaka off the bench, but if starts tonight, he would be one of the better players to attack in this Raptors Pelicans game. (231.5 point slate high O/U game total) He is averaging 32.3 DK PPG this season, which is right over what we need from him at this current price.

PG: Elfird Payton: (5,300)

Awesome value if he plays. Not including the game he got hurt (only 16 minutes), Payton was fitting in perfectly with The Pelicans, helping them to a 4-0 start and averaging 36.1 DK PPG. The matchup vs The Raptors is tough (8th in efficiency), but Payton would just be tempting at this price, if deemed fully healthy.

SF/PF: T.J. Warren: (5,500)

Since reentering the starting five, Warren has been a beast, topping 40 DK points in each of his last two games. The minutes have been high and steady, with him logging 37 regulation minutes in both of these games. The matchup vs The Thunder isn’t perfect (0.94 opponent +/-), but if the minutes continue, Warren is obviously mis priced.

PG: Shelvin Mack: (3,900) 

Is averaging 21.8 DK PPG this season is going against The Jazz, his former club, who are an above average matchup for back up PGs. (3.47 opponent +/-)

SG: Josh Okogie: (3,900)

If Wiggins or Teague are out, Okogie will be looking at least 30 minutes of action. He isn’t a great fantasy player (0.7 DK PPM), but has a decent shot of 20+ DK points, assuming The Wolves remain shorthanded.

PF: Jarell Marton: (3,000) 

Only if Gordon is out. He started for AG last night and was very productive, scoring 25.5 DK points across 28 minutes vs The Knicks. With The DraftKings’ pricing for Monday coming out right after lock last night, Martin’s salary hasn’t adjusted in anyway, as Martin is still a minimum $3,000. With a starting role again, he would be a must play in this terrific matchup vs The Wizards. (6.8 opponent +/-)

*Please note most of these stats and rankings are from FantasyLabs.com

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