What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 13th, 2017. Tonight we get back to a full slate with nine games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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PF/C: Kristaps Porzingis: (9,600) I know I may sound like a broken record, but until we see some progress, this Cav’s defense is a unit that needs to be targeted on a nightly basis. They didn’t continue their streak of allowing their opponent’s to score over 110 points, but they still allowed four of the five Mavs’ starters to top five times value on Saturday night. It’s honestly pathetic how bad they have been, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, and I think we see Porzingis dominate this defense that is still without their best interior defender, Tristan Thompson. (calf) Porzi’s minutes have been lower the last two games (29,27), but one was because of a blowout and the other was presumably because he was bothered by an elbow injury last Tuesday.
He sat out a game cause of this injury and he looked fine in his return to the court on Saturday night. Tonight, he should get back to his normal 30-35 minute role, in this Knicks Cavs match-up that has a tight spread of only five points. He should have no problems vs this defense that is currently presenting a very high opponent +/- of 7.26 points to starting PFs. I am expecting 50+ DK points out him, especially when you factor in that this game is being played at home in MSG, where Porzingis is averaging a notable 7.9 more DK points a game compared to when he is on the road. His $9,600 salary is fair, but I think Porzingis’ ceiling is just too high to ignore vs this Cavs defense.
PF/C: Derrick Favors: (4,600) With center Rudy Gobert out (knee), Favors started at center, and had his best game of the season, posting a double-double of 24 points, 12 rebounds, to go along with two blocks and a steal vs The Nets Saturday night. (46 DK points) Favors has plenty of injury history himself, but The Jazz had no choice but to let him log a season high 36 minutes in this win. As expected, with Gobert out of this offense, Favors saw all his rates rise. Its only one game, but Favors saw a 22.7% usage rate, which is a 3.3% increase from his season average, and a team high 17.9% rebound percentage, which is a large 7.5% increase from his usual rate this season. With these increases in his rates, he scored a great 1.25 DK points per minute, compared to the 0.73 DK point per minute he was producing before Saturday’s game. The bone bruise Gobert is dealing with is expected to keep him out for 4-6 weeks, which will keep Favors as The Jazz’s primary big for the foreseeable future.
With no game yesterday and no game tomorrow, Favors will once again start at center, and should play 30+ minutes barring bad foul trouble tonight vs The Wolves. His match-up vs Wolves starting center Karl Anthony-Towns looks very tough at a first glance, but this defense has really struggled in the early stages of the season, ranking as the third worst team in defensive efficiency, and surprisingly one of their weakest spots has been against centers, as they are currently presenting a solid opponent +/- of 2.19 points to starting centers. In 30-35 minutes, Favors should easily meet five times value, with 35-40 DK point upside if he can manage another double. His price has only gone up $200 since his terrific game Saturday, and at only $4,600, Favors is a must play for me on Monday night.
PG/SG: Iman Shumpert: (3,600) In these last two games with starting PG Derick Rose out (ankle), Shumpert has drawn the start at PG, and has seen 33 and 37 minutes. The numbers haven’t been anything crazy, but he is averaging 20.4 DK points in these two games, which is a great return for his low salary. Rose has already been ruled out for tonight’s match-up vs The Knicks, which will keep Shumpert in a 30+ minute role as a starter.
The Knicks are a neutral matchup for PGs (-0.16 opponent +/-), and with this high of playing time, Shumpert should once again produce five to six times value vs his former team. He doesn’t have much upside, but at only $3,600, he is one of the best point per dollar values of this nine game slate and should be considered in both cash games and GPPs.
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: (4,500) KCP struggled with his shot on Saturday night, only scoring 17.75 DK points vs The Bucks, but before this he was on a very nice run of producing at least five times value in three straight games, at a 27.2 DK point a game average. Tonight, he is in a perfect spot to bounce back vs a Suns squad that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, with a high current opponent +/- of 5.59 points vs starting SGs.
Both The Lakers and Suns rank inside the top three in pace this season, and this game is should produce some fantasy gold with its high O/U game total of 228.5 points and small spread of one point in favor of The Suns. His minutes have been very consistent as of late, playing over 30 minutes in six straight games, and in around 35 minutes of action, Caldwell-Pope should score 25-30 DK points in this high scoring affair. In this spot, KCP is too cheap at $4,500 and is one of my preferred ways of getting exposure to arguably the best game environment of the night.
Also Consider: Lou Williams (disappointed in his last game, but is still one of the best values of the slate at $5,600, with both Beverly and Gallinari remaining out), Frank Ntilikina (I really like him in GPPs at this low cost. He has played at least 20 minutes in four straight games, and is getting the best match-up on the board, as this Cavs team currently has a ridiculous opponent +/- of 11.51 points to back up PGs), John Collins (very hard to predict, but very much in play for GPPs, with Muscala listed as doubtful for tonight), T.J. McConnell (Bayless, Fultz, and now Stauskas are all out), Donovan Mitchell (He can’t be expected to have this type of usage again, but he led this Jazz team with a very high 37.2% usage with Gobert out. He scored 35.25 DK points in the win over The Nets and it may not get this high, but his usage should stay up as a starter with Gobert out again), Courtney Lee, Jamal Murray/Will Barton (both would be very viable if Gary Harris out again), Jordan Clarkson, Dario Saric, Thabo Sefolosha, Julius Randle, Shaun Livingston/Andre Igoudola (if Steph Curry is out), and Jonathon Simmons (if Elfrid Payton remains out and better if Steph Curry is out, making this game more competitive).