What’s up people. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 14th. Tonight is a full slate, with 11 games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,500)
In his first game sans Jimmy Butler, KAT was a monster, producing a 25/21 double double in Monday’s win over The Nets. (59.25 DK points) His new teammates, Dario Saric and Robert Covington, went through shoot-around and are expected to play, but in their first game with The Wolves, I don’t expect them to steal away much usage from Towns, Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague, etc. With Butler off the court, Towns is averaging 1.52 DK PPM and he should play high minutes tonight vs The Pelicans. (MIN -1 and an 234.5 O/U game total, which is the highest total of the night by 10.5 points)
Fellow Kentucky Wildcat, Anthony Davis is no stiff on defense, but his team still ranks 26th overall in efficiency so far this season. (2.48 opponent +/-) Furthermore, they play at the 6th fastest pace and Towns scored 49.75 DK PPG vs The Pelicans across two games last year. Finally, he is on his home floor, where he is averaging a whopping 8.8 more DK PPG this season. Even with more bodies coming into the mix, don’t hesitate to attack KAT on Wednesday night.
PG: John Wall: (9,100)
It’s a different day, but the same scenario with Wall. Plain and simple, he is mispriced for the way he has been playing. At $9,100, he needs to 45.5 DK points to meet value, which is something Wall has done in five straight games. He is particularly better at home (3.6 more DK PPG), where he will be tonight, going against The Cavs, who are the 4th worst rated defense this season. (1.02 opponent +/-)
Even with The Wizards favored by 11.5 points, I think Wall should exceed value and has excellent upside if this game stays closer than expected. (The Cavs beat The Hornets last night and we all know The Wizards have struggled this season)
PF/C: Larry Nance: (5,500)
In these last two games, as a starter, Nance has been a strong DFS value. (27.5 DK PPG) He has played over 30 minutes in both games and should continue to see this kind of playing time tonight, with Sam Dekker (ankle) and Kevin Love (foot) both still sidelined. He has yet to score double digit real points, but has tallied over 10 rebounds in each game.
Soon, you have to think Nance will naturally fall into a double double and this should be the night, going against The Wizards, who are 28th in defensive efficiency, 9th in pace, and 3rd in most rebounds allowed. (2.98 opponent +/-) At only $5,500, Nance is an awesome value play, that should return six to seven times value.
SG/SF: David Nwaba: (3,200)
Last night, on top of Love and Dekker, The Cavs were also without Kyle Korver (foot), Cedi Osman (back), and George Hill. (shoulder) Nwaba has had a quiet start in a Cavs’ uniform, but he finally got his chance on Tuesday night. In a season high 27 minutes of work off the bench, he scored 30.25 DK points in the win over The Hornets. The Cavs will have the same exact personnel tonight and after this excellent showing, that helped them to their second win of the season over a respectable potential playoff team, Nwaba has earned himself 25-30 minutes with the second unit. He is a legitimate talent and if you played DFS last season, you should remember he was always in the value play conversation when he would log a decent amount of minutes, as a member of The Bulls.
If we look at his game from the end of last year, in the final 11 games he played 25 minutes or more, he scored 21 DK PPG. He is averaging 0.84 DK PPM as a Cav and this matchup couldn’t be better for an active wing like Nwaba. (2.51 opponent +/- and a 4.6 possession increase) I don’t think The Wizards cover their large spread tonight and even if they did, Nwaba is a bench player, that would still play if the game became a blowout. He should score over 20 DK points and I don’t see how you can go wrong with Nwaba at only $3,200.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,300)
Just like Towns, I would always rather play Davis at home, but this matchup and game setting is just too perfect to not consider The Brow. The Wolves are the second worst defense in The NBA and they have surrendered the third most RPG. In the 16 games AD has played in that have had an O/U game total of at least 230 points, he is averaging 59.14 DK PPG.
SF/PF: Paul George: (9,600)
PG13 disappointed in OKC’s first game after Russell Westbrook (ankle) went down, but has been awesome ever since, averaging 52.8 DK PPG in their last three. He has posted a 29.8% usage rate in these three and Westbrook has already been ruled out for this matchup vs The Knicks. (1.69 opponent +/- and 22nd in defensive efficiency)
PF/C: LaMarcus Aldridge: (8,300)
Aldridge is one of the most annoying players in NBA DFS, but his production has been solid in these last two, with Pau Gasol (foot) and Rudy Gay (heel) out. (42.75 DK PPG) Tonight, he has a great chance of cracking 40 DK points again, vs The Suns. (3.79 opponent +/-)
SG: Bradley Beal: (7,500)
Beal worked The Magic for 42.5 DK points in their last game and this matchup vs The Cavs is positive. (1.6 opponent +/-) Oh, and just like his backcourt mate, Wall, Beal has some notable home/away splits this season. (2.8 more DK PPG in Washington)
SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (7,500)
Nice target if he plays and is not limited. (ankle, questionable) He is averaging 41.4 DK PPG this season and The Wolves have been weak at defending PFs (3.64 opponent +/-) and three point shooters. (4th most made 3PG)
C: Jusuf Nurkic: (6,500)
For a player who used to be hard to predict, Nurkic has been very consistent as of late, scoring at least 32 DK points in his seven straight and this matchup vs The Lakers is still above average for centers. (3.34 opponent +/-) In their first meeting of the season, Nurkic put up 39.75 DK points in 30.1 minutes.
SF/PF: T.J. Warren: (5,800)
Since rejoining the starting five, Warren has been a force, averaging 40.5 DK PPG and 39.4 MPG. He is just mis priced right now and will move up to around $7,000 soon.
PG: Jeff Teague: (5,600)
He is questionable, due to the knee, but should play, after being fine and scoring 47.25 DK points in 34.4 minutes on Monday. This matchup vs The Pelicans is awesome for starting PGs (6.22 opponent +/-) and if he is full go, like I am expecting, Teague should get over 30 DK points.
PG: Elfird Payton: (5,300)
As I have said everyday he has been listed as questionable, with the ankle injury, Payton is a fine play if he suits up. He is averaging 30.8 DK PPG this season and The Wolves are the second worst defense in the league, but, there are reports if he plays, his minutes may be limited.
PF/C: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: (5,200)
RHJ should be one of the main beneficiaries of the Caris LeVert injury. (dislocated foot) After LeVert left their last game, Hollis-Jefferson scored 36.5 DK points in only 27 minutes vs The Wolves. This was tied for his highest minute total of the season and he also saw a 19.8% usage rate. He scored 0.96 DK PPM last season with LeVert off the floor and has a chance at value, in this beautiful matchup vs The Heat. (5.13 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: J.R. Smith: (4,000)
With Korver being a late add to the injury list last night for The Cavs, Smith rebounded nicely, scoring 29.25 DK points vs The Hornets. He is now averaging 24.2 DK PPG as a starter and should play 30+ in this prime spot vs The Wizards. (3.21 opponent +/- and third most made 3PG allowed)
SG: Marshon Brooks: (3,300)
Risky punt that could pay off with Dillon Brooks (knee) out. Marshon is scoring 0.85 DK PPM this season and should be in line for 25-30 minutes off the bench. Don’t expect much, but Brooks could approach 20 DK points, despite this ugly matchup vs The Bucks. (4th in efficiency)
*Please note most of these stats and rankings are from FantasyLabs.com