gravatar

DraftKings NBA Picks – November 15th

Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 15th. Tonight is a very small slate of only three games. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (11,100)

Steph Curry (groin) will remain out for at least another ten days. As expected, this makes Durant the top overall play of the slate. He is averaging 58 DK PPG in this past three without Curry and is seeing a massive 37.7% usage rate in all the time he has logged with the PG off the court this season. This is a team high 7.2% increase from his season average. (1.52 DK PPM)

Tonight is a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals, between The Warriors and Rockets. This game is without a doubt the best game of tonight’s three to attack. (HOU -3 and 218.5 O/U game total) Durant should be forced to play close to 40 minutes and I am expecting over 60 DK points in this ultra-competitive environment.

Value Picks:

PG: Monte Morris: (4,100)

Morris has been brilliant off the bench in the last three games. (28.4 DK PPG) The Iowa State product is playing a much bigger role, with 26.9 MPG and a 16.4% usage rate. (1.1 DK PPM) Tonight, he is in a perfect spot to continue his improved play, vs The Hawks, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency and 1st in pace. (4.31 opponent +/-)

On top of the matchup being gorgeous, The Nuggets are 13 point home favorites, and if this spread pans out, the rookie could soak up some extra minutes and usage in garbage time. Morris should get us 25-30 DK points and is a core play on Thursday night.

PF/C: Montrezl Harrell: (6,200)

HC Doc Rivers has been experimenting with The Clippers’ center rotation all season. In the last two games, he has elected to start Marcin Gortat and not play Boban Marjanovic, with Harrell coming off the bench, and playing the most minutes. Harrell is by far the best player of the three and this move has made Rivers look like a genius. With Harrell playing much more (32.2 MPG), The Clippers have beat The Bucks and Warriors in these last two games. This is basically a 70/30 split in favor of Harrell and he should log over 30 minutes tonight vs The Spurs.

This is an average matchup by the numbers (0.66 opponent +/-), but The Spurs are beat up right now in their front-court, with Pau Gasol (foot) still out. Harrell and his tremendous energy should be all over the glass in this game. We should see another double double and at least 30 DK points from him, with a ceiling close to 50. The new higher price tag may keep some away, but I think this is a situation that needs to be attacked, until Harrell’s price gets over $7,000.

SF/PF: Juan Hernangomez: (3,800)

Hernangomez was inserted into the starting lineup on Sunday and he continued to start on Tuesday. His fantasy numbers haven’t been great (18.5 DK PPG), but he has been playing heavy minutes. (34 MPG)

He is averaging 0.7 DK PPM and with a projection over 30 minutes, you have to think Hernangomez can salvage a 20+ DK point outing vs this weak Atlanta defense. (1.91 opponent +/- and 8.8 possession increase) His ceiling isn’t appealing, but he is a punt play worth considering, based off minutes alone.

Also Consider:

PG/SG: James Harden: (10,700)

The Beard has looked much better in his last two games. (60 DK PPG) Carmelo Anthony being gone keeps the ball in Harden’s hands a little more and tonight’s game setting vs The Warriors is perfect for him to have a MVP like performance.

They are a solid opponent +/- of 1.57 points and Harden is scoring 52 DK PPG in his last four vs Golden State. Plus, he is averaging 4.4 more DK PPG at home this season. You should be making an effort to squeeze both Harden in Durant in your lineup on Thursday night.

PF/C: Draymond Green: (8,100)

Green seems like an excellent GPP target for this tiny slate. He was very quiet in his last game (30.5 DK points vs The Clippers), but he should have a head full steam tonight, after being suspended, for his altercation with Durant following that loss to LAC. In the last four games he has played The Rockets, Green has exploded for 55.9 DK PPG.

SF/PF: Tobias Harris: (7,200)

Per usual, Harris is just too cheap for his production this season. In 13 games, he is averaging 37.6 DK PPG. At tonight’s salary, he needs to 36 DK points to reach value, which is clearly obtainable, in this positive home matchup vs The Spurs. (1.63 opponent +/- and 5.2 more DK PPG at home this season)

PG: Quinn Cook: (5,700)

Cook struggled vs Patrick Beverly on Monday (12.75 DK points), but in the two surrounding games, with Curry out, he has been terrific. (36.8 DK PPG) This matchup vs The Rockets doesn’t seem ideal (0.07 opponent +/-), but they still rank 21st in efficiency, and I suspect they will have Chris Paul chase Klay Thompson, putting Harden and his lackluster defense on Cook. In 30-35 minutes of work, Cook should exceed five times value.

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: (5,300)

Harrell isn’t the only Clipper who has helped them to back to back wins over strong opponents. Gilgeous-Alexander has also been flourishing in a new role, averaging 35.1 DK PPG in these past two.

He has been starting for Avery Bradley (ankle, questionable) and this was the third game in a row SGA has played over 30 minutes.If Bradley is forced to sit again, SGA should score 30+ DK points in 35-40 minutes of action, vs this Spurs’ backcourt that struggles defensively. (2.72 opponent +/-)

C: Jakob Poeltl: (3,000)

For a full punt, I think Poeltl is an option. Last night, with Gay and Gasol out, the former Raptor scored 24.75 DK points in 19 minutes vs The Suns. Gay will return tonight, but Gasol will remain sidelined, which should keep Poeltl in a near 20 minute role as The Spurs’ back up center.

He is averaging 0.9 DK PPM this year and in the last five games he has logged over 15 minutes, he is producing 18.5 DK PPG. Finally, the matchup vs The Clippers is above average (3.24 opponent +/-) and it is one that requires his size. (The Clippers usually have a center playing at all times) The floor is a zero, but Poeltl has the potential for 15-20 DK points.

*Please note most of these stats and rankings are from FantasyLabs.com

PLAY THIS LINEUP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.