Welcome back people. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 17th. Tonight, is a full slate, with nine games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,100)
AD is back to playing MVP type basketball. He scored 76.75 DK points in the win over The Knicks last night and he is now averaging 66 DK PPG in his last five. Even though he is on an absolute tear right now, DraftKings has him priced at only $11,100, which is the cheapest Davis has been since opening night. He only needs 55.5 DK points for five times value at this salary, which is certainly obtainable vs Nikola Jokic and this Nuggets’ front court. (4.68 opponent +/-)
On top of the matchup being very strong, Davis is at home, in New Orleans, where he is producing 11.3 more DK PPG, compared to when he is on the road this season and this game has the highest O/U game total of the night. (228 points) Playing the second night of a back to back is always a concern for a big body like Davis, but he has been just fine when the second game is on his home floor. In the last eight home games that have been his second game in two nights, AD is averaging 65.3 DK PPG. Even though he is the second highest priced player on the board, The Brow is the best point per dollar value of the slate.
PF/C: Serge Ibaka: (6,100)
Kawhi Leonard has only played one back to back set this season and there is speculation he will be rested tonight, after logging 43 minutes in Friday’s OT loss to The Celtics. Assuming he is out, every Raptor sees a bump to their value, particularly Ibaka, at only $6,100. In the four games Leonard has already sat this season, Ibaka has been outstanding, averaging 38.2 DK PPG. His usage was up 4.0% in these games and he produced 1.6 DK PPM.
Sometimes The Raptors like to bring him off the bench, but with Leonard likely being rested, they should keep Ibaka in the starting five. This a great matchup for him to expose, going against The Bulls, who are the 7th worst rated defense this season, that has allowed the 5th most RPG. (2.95 opponent +/-) Even if Leonard played, Ibaka would still be a fine target, but in the likely scenario the SF is rested, Ibaka would become one of the better front court values of the night.
SF/PF: T.J. Warren: (6,000)
The Suns have only won one of these games, but Warren has been an elite value play in these past four games as a starter. In a team high 41.4 MPG, he is scoring 41 DK PPG during this stretch. He has contributed over 40 DK points in three of these four and tonight, he stays at home, to face The Thunder.
They are the 2nd highest rated defense in The NBA, but have been a slightly positive spot for starting PFs. (1.1 opponent +/-) Either way, the amount of playing time Warren is seeing outweighs any possible matchup. Warren should play roughly 40 minutes tonight and score 35-40 DK points, making him an awesome mid-tier target for this nine game slate.
SF/PF: Jonas Jerebko: (3,700)
Tonight, The Warriors will be without Steph Curry (groin), Draymond Green (toe), and Alfonzo McKinnie (foot) vs The Mavs. In the last game Green missed, Jerebko got the start at PF and was a huge boost for the team, notching a 14/13 double double in the win over The Hawks on Tuesday. (36.75 DK points in 25 minutes)
His previous start for Green was less impressive (13.75 DK points in 26 minutes vs The Nets), but with McKinnie now also out of the rotation, a player who was logging 21.9 MPG in the contests Green has missed, I am projecting Jerebko for close to 30 minutes with a starting role. (0.95 DK PPM when Curry, Green, and McKinnie are off the court) The matchup could be better (Dallas is 13th in defensive efficiency), but Jerebko is a fine gamble in this situation, that could really pay off.
SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (10,600)
Thursday night was just a mess for The Warriors (86-107 loss to The Rockets), but on the bright side, DraftKings has decreased KD’s price a notable $500. With Curry, Green, and now McKinnie all out for The Warriors, KD should smash value at this reasonable salary. When all three of these players are off the floor, Durant is scoring an elite 1.6 DK PPM. He should approach 60 DK points and this is a terrific time to attack Durant in GPPs. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
SF/PF: Paul George: (9,900)
Russell Westbrook (ankle) will miss another game tonight. In these past four without him, George has been scoring 54.6 DK PPG. Tonight, he and The Thunder have a date with The Suns, who are the worst rated defense in the league.
PG: Kyle Lowry: (7,800)
Lowry has been struggling (28.7 DK PPG in his last five), but he should get back on track tonight, if Leonard is indeed rested. In the four games Leonard was out this season, Lowry saw a team high 5.8% usage increase and is averaged 47.3 DK PPG. Also, this matchup vs Zach LaVine and The Bulls is strong for PGs. (24th in efficiency and a 1.44 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (7,600)
LaVine’s numbers have gone down in his last two (28.5 DK PPG), but his opponents have been The Celtics and The Bucks, two of The NBA’s top six defensive teams. Tonight’s matchup vs The Raptors may not look much better (9th in efficiency), but they should be without Leonard, who we all know is the best defensive wing in the game. This opens the door for LaVine and his ridiculous usage (32.2%, the 3rd highest in The NBA) to bounce back tonight at home. (40.7 DK PPG)
PF: Pascal Siakam: (6,100)
Siakim is averaging 35.1 DK PPG in his last three and 34.3 DK PPG in the four without Leonard. Ibaka is the better option, but Siakam isn’t far behind and he would see a nice boost in minutes, if OG Anunoby (wrist, questionable) is also forced to miss this game.
PG: Lonzo Ball: (5,400)
With Rajon Rondo (hand) out the next few weeks, expect a heavy dose of Ball. In the three games Rondo has already missed this season, Ball started and scored 34.25 DK PPG in 31.5 MPG. He is a strong value play tonight and soon, his price is going to be over $6,000.
SF/PF: Juan Hernangomez: (4,100)
Hernangomez went off for 40.25 DK points in Thursday night’s blowout win over The Hawks and he is now playing 33 MPG in these last three as a starter. We can’t expect anything like Thursday night, but Hernangomez should reach value in this slate high total.
SG/SF: Tyreke Evans: (3,900)
Evans recorded a season high 44 DK points in only 25.2 minutes of work last night vs The Heat and he could draw the start tonight, if Victor Oladipo (knee, questionable) was unable to suit up. Evan’s usage is always high and he is scoring 1.1 DK PPM this season with The Pacers. In a starting role, he would likely see 30+ minutes in a dream spot, vs The Hawks, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 1st in pace. (2.39 opponent +/-) If Oladipo is out and Evans is starting, he is a must play in all formats.
PF/C: Mike Muscala: (3,400)
With Robert Covington and Dario Saric traded to Minnesota, Muscala has been playing 28.2 MPG off the bench in these last three. The fantasy numbers have been anything eye popping (19.6 DK PPG), but based on playing time, Muscala rates as a solid punt.
SG/SF: Lance Stephenson: (3,300)
Risky because he hasn’t been playing much, but in the three games without Rondo this year, Stephenson averaged 28.1 DK PPG and 22.4 MPG. This is a team high 11.3 DK point increase and Stephenson is a viable GPP play, that nobody should have.
*Please note most of these stats and rankings are from FantasyLabs.com