What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 17th, 2017. Friday night’s slate is a huge slate with 11 games to attack . Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PG/SG: Lou Williams: (6,600) It doesn’t matter that his price has hit it’s season peak, Lou Will needs to be locked into your lineups, with both PG Patrick Beverly (knee) and SF Danilo Gallinari (thigh) remaining out. Monday night, Williams erupted for 31 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and five steals in the loss to The Sixers. (60.25 DK points) He is now averaging 43.3 DK points in 37.5 minutes, on a 27.5% usage rate, in these last three games with both of these starters out. His price has jumped $1,000 since his massive game Monday, but he is still underpriced for how productive he has been and how good his matchup is tonight vs The Cavs.
This defense has slightly improved over their last few games, but they still rank dead last in defensive efficiency and rate as a very high opponent +/- of 9.85 points. Factor in that this game has one of the highest O/U game totals of night (222 points) and a smaller spread of 6.5 points, Williams should once again exceeded five times value in this awesome spot. He is chunking up nine three pointers a game over these past three, hitting them at 44% clip, and this should continue vs this Cavs defense, that allows the 3rd most three pointers made per game this season. Everything is pointing towards another great game from Williams and he is a core play for on Friday night.
PF/C: Derrick Favors: (5,900) After a subpar game vs The Wolves (25 DK points), Favors bounced back vs The Knicks on Wednesday, putting up 32.5 DK points in 34.1 minutes. He is now averaging 34.5 DK points in 32.3 minutes a night with starting center Rudy Gobert sidelined with a knee injury. As the Jazz’s primary big, he has seen his rebound rate jump 8.1%, leading this team with a 19.3% rebound percentage, while scoring 1.1 DK points a minute. Tonight, he couldn’t ask for a better match-up, taking on The Nets who play at The NBA’s fastest pace, and allow the most rebounds a game.
There hasn’t been many centers who haven’t smashed value against this weak interior defense, that is currently presenting an opponent +/- of 10.4 points, which is the best matchup for any big man suiting up on Friday night. DraftKings is slowly bringing his salary up to where it should be, but at $5,900 he still rates as a fine value, especially in this match-up. It is early in the day and many things can change, but Fantasy Labs only has Favors projected for an ownership of 5-8% in GPPs. This seems way too low to me, but either if he is a popular play or not, Favors is a player I will be playing with confidence in all formats.
PG/SG: Spencer Dinwiddie: (5,500) Dinwiddie got the start at PG with D’Angelo Russell (knee) out on Tuesday, and he stepped up to the task, tallying a double double of 12 points and 11 assists, along with a three boards, and a block in 34.2 minutes. He did all of us this against The Celtics, who are the highest rated defense in the league. This was the second time he drew the start with Russell and Jeremy Lin out, and he is now averaging 35.13 DK points as The Nets starting PG. Also, this Nets’ coaching staff has tried to keep most of the players at 30 minutes or less this season, but in both of these games, they needed Dinwiddie to be the main ball handler, with him averaging 33.2 minutes across these starts.
Tonight, he is at home, where he is scoring 2.3 more DK points a game, taking on a Jazz defense that has really slipped without Rudy Gobert. For the season The Jazz are the 6th best defense, but in these past three games without Gobert, they have ranked as the 5th worst defense in the league. Vegas apparently has also taken note of this, giving The Nets a decent implied team total of 103.75 points. It’s hard not seeing Dinwiddie log 30+ minutes and meet five times value again tonight, making him one of the strongest values on the board.
PG/SG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (6,000) Mavs’ Head Coach Rick Carisle is finally letting his rookie play starter-like minutes, as Smith Jr. has played 30+ minutes in his last four games. This year’s 9th overall pick has taken full advantage of the extra minutes, averaging 39 DK points a game during this span. The Mavs have one of the league’s worst records at 2-13, and Smith Jr. is already one of their better scorers, who needs to be on the floor if they want to compete at all this season.
There is no reason why he shouldn’t see 30-35 minutes again tonight in a nice matchup vs The Wolves, who have struggled vs PGs thus far. (2.39 opponent +/-) The O/U game total of this game is at a solid 212.5 points, but I think there is a chance we see them hit the over, as both of these teams rank in the bottom five in defensive efficiency. He scores right around 1.0 DK point a minute this season, and Smith Jr. should produce 30+ DK points for the fifth consecutive game vs this Wolves defense.
Also Consider: Donovan Mitchell (would have to play a ton of point if Ricky Rubio is ruled out. He has seen a 37.7 usage rate with Rubio, Joe Johnson, and Gobert off the floor this year and is scoring 44 DK points per 36 minutes in this situation. If Rubio is out I like him in all formats playing way up in pace vs this Nets team), Alec Burks (better if Rubio is out), Jonas Jerebko (been solid as the starting PF, averaging 21 DK points, and would have to play 30+ minutes if Thabo Sefolosha was out), OG Anunoby (sucked last game, but this was purely off him seeing less minutes. His minutes would have to go back up if Serge Ibaka misses this game. He is currently listed as questionable with a swollen left knee), Fred Van Fleet (with Norman Powell and Delon Wright out, Van Fleet should see 20-25 minutes off the bench. At a bare minimum price, he is a viable punt, with him averaging 0.84 DK points per minute), C.J. Miles (28.25 DK points in these past two games without Powell), Jordan Clarkson (his role has been slightly up as Lonzo Ball has taken a backseat. His matchup is outstanding vs The Suns, who rate as a 6.37 opponent +/-), Greg Monroe (42.75 DK points in 26.2 minutes in his Suns debut last night. The matchup is awesome vs The Lakers (5.44 opponent +/-) and if there no signs he will be limited on this second night of a back to back, he seems like a really nice play with Tyson Chandler already ruled out), Alex Len (if Monroe was rested), Nicholas Batum (played 32 minutes in his first game back and scored 33.75 DK points, but said after the game that he “had no legs” in the final five minutes. It has been a few days since this, and if he isn’t limited he is one of the better SF values of the night, but this is clearly a situation to monitor after his comments), and Taj Gibson (If Dieng remains out. He has picked up a double double in two of his last three games without Dieng).