What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 18th, 2017. Tonight we get a solid slate with seven games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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SG/SF: Tyreke Evans: (7,000) With starting PG Mike Conley out of the lineup with an Achilles injury, Evans took over as The Grizzlies primary ball handler and play maker, putting up 18 points, nine assists, six rebounds, two blocks, and a steal in the loss to The Pacers on Wednesday night. (44.5 DK points) Conley is expected to be out for a few weeks with this injury that has been bothering for most of the season. Even as a bench player, Evans instantly becomes a main offensive weapon for The Grizzlies, as he has seen a 4.7% usage increase and an 8.1% assist percentage bump in the two full games Conley has sat this season. In these two games, Evans is averaging a great 43.25 DK points in an average of 33.5 minutes off the bench, which is a whopping 1.37 DK points per minute when you do the math.
Tonight, he and The Grizzlies are at home, playing up in pace vs The Rockets. (7.8 possession increase) Playing at a faster pace is ideal for Evans’ type of game, and on top of the pace factor, this match-up has been excellent all season, as The Rockets have really struggled at defending opposing guards. (4.68 opponent +/-) The return of Chris Paul obviously improves their defense, but there really isn’t any match-up in The NBA that would stop me from rostering Evans with Conley out of the picture, even at this new higher price of $7,000. Even when you include two games with Conley starting, Evans has topped 40 DK points in three straight games, and I think we see him put up 40-45 DK points tonight. His price is going to be over $8,000 soon, and we need to attack Evans, while he is still affordable. He is one of the best overall values of this whole slate, and is someone who should be considered in all formats on Saturday night.
PG: Mario Chalmers: (4,100) Another value to take advantage of with Conley out is Mario Chalmers. He has been the player that has started for Conley for this season and he has already been announced as the starter for tonight’s tilt vs The Rockets. He hasn’t smashed like Evans, but he has been a nice value in the two games Conley has been out, averaging 23.25 DK points a game.
He played 30 minutes on Wednesday night, and he should play roughly 30 minutes again tonight. He is scoring 0.81 DK points per minute with Conley off the court this season, and with a projection of 30 minutes, Chalmers should produce five to six times value vs this fast paced Rockets team. (1.84 opponent +/-)
PF/C: John Henson: (4,800) Henson’s minutes have been on the rise, with him averaging 28 minutes a night over his past four games. As expected, he has been putting up solid numbers with his minutes up, averaging 29 DK points a night during this time. He has always been a productive fantasy player, averaging basically a DK point per minute the past three seasons at 0.97, and if he can stay out of foul trouble, he should play 25-30 minutes in a terrific spot vs a Mavs defense that is very soft inside, currently presenting an opponent +/- of 3.12 points to starting centers.
He should be able to meet five times value in this match-up with 30-35 DK point upside, if he can manage a double-double, which is obviously a possibility vs this Mavs interior defense. At only $4,800, he is one of the better front court values of this slate, that I am comfortable with in all formats.
PF/C: Dario Saric: (4,500) Saric has struggled with his shot in his past two games, but he is still starting, and playing over 30 minutes a night. Soon he will find his shot and I think tonight is a good time to take a chance on him at this low cost, in arguably best the game environment of the night. This Sixers Warriors game has high O/U total of 232.5 points, which is the highest total of the night by a large 19 points. It also has a spread of 8.5 points, which is a relatively small spread for a Warriors game.
The Sixers are playing well right now and I think this game stays close, which should keep Saric in his normal 30-35 minute role tonight. He is scoring 0.76 DK points per minute this year and if he can snap out of this shooting funk, Saric should top five times value in this great situation. (3.79 opponent +/-) Just last week, he had a solid night vs this same Warriors team, putting up 26.75 DK points in 27 minutes action. We could see a similar score out of him tonight, and he seems like a really nice gamble at this cheap price that gives you another share of this Sixers Warriors game.
Also Consider: Marresse Speights (20.4 DK points over his last three games and is only $3,100), Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Johnson (45.25 DK points in 43 minutes last night. Hard to guess what his playing will be like tonight, but he has a chance of seeing 35+ minutes, assuming Gallinari remains out), J.J. Redick, Jonas Jerebko (if Sefolosha is out again), Rodney Hood (if he starts again), Malik Monk (real interesting play if Kemba Walker is out. If he stated in place of Walker, he would be a value play that needs to be targeted), Dennis Schroder (only $6,600 which puts hid five times value at 33 DK points. He is averaging 35.1 DK points a game this season), Lou Williams, De’Aron Fox, and Derrick Favors.