Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 1st. Thursday night is a decent slate, with six games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
C: Joel Embiid: (10,300)
Embiid returns home tonight to take on The Clippers, who have really struggled at defending centers this season. (3.75 opponent +/-) Maric Gortat and Montrezl Harrell both have no chance of stopping Embiid in the post and this game presents a small a spread of only five points, in favor of The Sixers.
In the three Sixers’ games that were decided by single digit points, Embiid logged 36.7 MPG. With a full workload like this, in a plus matchup, Embiid is the best point per dollar high play of this six game slate.
SG/SF: Buddy Hield: (6,400)
After experimenting with his whole roster last season, Kings’ HC Dave Joerger has finally decided that it is in the team’s best interest to let their younger core of players see the most playing time. After three straight games of under 30 minutes, Hield is averaging 37.6 MPG over his last four. This has obviously led to much more fantasy success (40.2 DK PPG) and real basketball success, with The Kings now winning four games in a row.
Considering that this a huge accomplishment for a team that was very poor last season, there is no reason why Hield and the rest of the starters won’t continue to see heavy minutes going forward. Tonight, he is in an excellent matchup vs The Hawks, who are the second fastest team in the league. (6.8 opponent +/-) Teams are hitting 12.3 3PPG vs them and in 30-35 minutes of action, Hield should produce five to six times value, even at a season high price tag.
SF/PF: Neman Bjelica: (6,200)
Bjelica has also been a huge beneficiary in these last four games, scoring 44 DK PPG in 32.5 MPG. He has cracked 30 minutes in each game, which is something that only happened once in the first four of the season. Plus, his usage has risen to 22.9% in these last two, compared to the 16.6% he was seeing in the first six tilts.
Just like with Hield, Bjelica and his deep shooting (4.12 3PA PG) are a match made in heaven with this fast paced Hawks’ team. (2.09 opponent +/-) This game has the second highest O/U game total of the night (232 points) and Bjelica should score at least 30 DK points, with 45-50 DK point upside.
PG: Kemba Walker: (8,800)
Walker’s stellar fantasy season hit a speed bump on Tuesday (37.5 DK points), but they didn’t need much from him in this easy win over The Heat. (125-113) He should get back on track tonight at home vs The Thunder. This game has a tight spread of only 1.5 points and total of 228 points. Also, Walker is at home, where he scored 2.2 more DK PPG last year and this matchup is above average for starting PGs. (1.57 opponent +/-)
Before Tuesday night, Walker was putting up 49.3 DK PPG and posting a ridiculous 35.1% usage rate. He is averaging 1.42 DK PPM and in 35+ minutes, Walker should approach 50 DK points on Thursday night.
PG: Damian Lillard: (9,900)
Lillard hasn’t done much in his last two (29.5 DK PPG), but this matchup vs The Pelicans is just too good to ignore. They are the 7th worst rated defense and the 4th fastest team in the league. This results in them being an insane 11.18 opponent +/- for starting PGs. His current price reflects this matchup and it’s slate high total (233.5 points), but ceiling is obviously very high.
PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (9,600)
Simmons has been up and down as of late, but tonight he is in a solid spot vs The Clippers. Their backcourt of Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley is one of the best defensive pairs in the league, but they are both too small to guard Simmons. This should put either Danilo Gallinari or Tobias Harris on him, creating a fae easier matchup. If this game holds true to its small spread, Simmons has a solid chance of getting a triple double.
SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (7,300)
Even with Anthony Davis back, Mirotic kept his strong season going last night. (48.5 DK points vs The Warriors) He is now averaging 41.7 DK PPG and this matchup vs The Blazers is the best for PFs. (5.88 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (7,300)
Similar to Mirotic, AD’s return had no effect on Holiday. He scored 48.25 DK points in a high 41.58 minutes in the loss to The Warriors. This price tag is friendly, but Holiday would be a better option if Elfird Payton (ankle) missed another game.
C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (6,800)
WCS has the worst matchup for a Kings’ starter (-3.64 opponent +/-), but he is also just too cheap for his recent production. In these last four, he is averaging 42.4 DK PPG in 31.9 MPG.
SF/PF: Sam Dekker: (4,600)
In his second start for Kevin Love (foot), Dekker was terrific scoring 36.25 DK points across 29 minutes in the win over The Hawks. Not only did they win, but they won by 22 points and this was their first win of the season and first game after the firing of HC Ty Lue. His matchup tonight vs The Nuggets creates more risk than there already is with any Cav (-1.74 opponent +/-), but you have to think he logs starter like minutes again after his showing in their first win of the year. If he gets right around 30 minutes again, Dekker should produce. (1.03 DK PPM)
SG/SF: E’Twaun Moore: (4,300)
Moore had a season best 33.5 DK points in 38.5 minutes in last night’s loss to The Warriors. We can’t expect this kind of game again, but if he keeps seeing very high playing time (37.9 MPG in last two), Moore has a chance at getting five times value in this strong game environment.
SF/PF: Al-Farouq Aminu: (4,000)
Aminu is a nice cheap way to get a piece of this Blazers Pelicans game. He is playing 28.3 MPG and is averaging 21.4 DK PPG, but is only $4,000, which is the cheapest he has been all season.
PG/SG: Marcus Smart: (4,000)
Jaylen Brown is questionable tonight with a sore foot and in the event he was forced out, Smart would be the likely starting two guard tonight. The Celtics and Bucks are the #1 and #2 rated defenses this season, so this is the last game I want to target, but if he started, Smart would play around 30 minutes, which would be enough for him to retain value (0.78 DK PPM), despite the tough matchup. Terry Rozier would also be in play at $4,200 and would have the better upside, but the guaranteed minutes for Smart as a starter, would make him the safer play of the two.