Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 1st, 2017. Tonight we get a massive slate with 12 games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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C: Joel Embiid: (7,900) Who knows why, but coming off his best game of the season (45.25 DK points vs Hou), DraftKings has dropped Embiid’s price to $7,900, which is the first time he has been priced less than $8,000 since opening night. Tonight in an island game, Embiid should log his 25-30 minutes in a gorgeous spot vs The Hawks, who have allowed the fourth most DK points to opposing centers, at a ridiculously high current opponent +/- of 15.84 points.
Hawks starting center Dwayne Dedmon is an okay defender, but he and this front court are no match for Embiid. He should bully this defense and score 40-45 DK points in this matchup. I doubt we see him this cheap anytime soon and this is the perfect time to target Embiid.
PG: Jarret Jack: (4,700) Jack’s price tag is slowly creeping up to where it should be, but he is still under priced for his new role as The Knicks starting PG. Ramon Sessions opened the season as The Knicks starting PG, but he has not seen a single of minute of playing time since Jack took over. With Jack starting, The Knicks have won three straight games, with Jack producing 25.4 DK points a game. His usage isn’t anything to brag about (12.4%), but he has led this team with a 32.4% assist percentage during this win streak. In his first start they killed The Nets, which limited his minutes, but in these last two games that stayed competitive, the veteran has seen 34 and 32 minutes.
Now, The Knicks will stay at home to face off against The Rockets. This is a match up I have had success with attacking so far this season, as they are much weaker at defending PGs with Patrick Beverly out of the picture. (3.14 opponent +/-) This game is expected to stay close (HOU -5), which should push Jack to the mid 30s tonight. Against this defense and at home, Jack should produce close to six times value, and is one of the strongest value plays of this huge slate.
C: Jonas Valancuinas: (4,900) After practicing in full yesterday, Big Val is expected to make his return tonight, after missing the last four games with an ankle injury. He hasn’t played in over ten days and in his only full game this season, he put up 49.75 DK points across 30 minutes in The Raptors first game of the season. They have been cautious with this injury, and after a full practice with no set backs, Valancuinas will start and should be in line for 25-30 minutes on Wednesday night. His match up looks ugly vs The Nuggets, who rank 3rd against centers, but they start and play two natural big men in their front court, and The Raptors will need Valancuincas’ size if they want to win this game.
He scores a great 1.63 DK points per minute and if he can manage to stay out of foul trouble, Valancuinas should meet five times value, with nice upside if he can post a double-double, which is definitely a possibility against this Nuggets team that has allowed the 11th most rebounds a game. He is always a risk because he is a player who gets benched when The Raptors play small ball, but I don’t see that happening tonight, and I think he is a worthwhile gamble at this cheap price.
Dragan Bender: (3,400) Bender is obviously a risky option, but with the increased playing time he has seen as of late, he enters GPP consideration at his very low price. His minutes remained low in the first two games, but since Head Coach Earl Watson was fired, but in these last two games, they have given last year’s fourth overall pick some freedom, with him logging 28 and 27 minutes.
It is nothing flashy, but he has scored over 20 DK points in both of these games, coming in at 0.8 DK point per minute average. His match up vs The Wizards isn’t ideal (12th vs PFs), but both of these clubs rank in the top five in pace this season, and he should be able to grind out value just based on decent playing time in this high scoring environment. (228 point O/U) Lastly, I think it is worth noting, that this Suns’ team is already in full on tank mode, and even if this game does become a blowout (WAS -12), Bender should still have his usual playing time with him being one of their younger prospects that The Suns want to develop this year.
Also Consider: Domantas Sabonis (had another big game last night (39 DK points), and Turner has already been ruled out for this game vs The Cavs. They rate good against centers, but they have been a disaster as a team defensively, ranking as the third worst team in defensive efficiency), Gary Harris, J.J. Redick, Jamal Murray, Terry Rozier (could benefit if this becomes a blowout), John Henson (potential bounce back game, will be very low owned after his dud last night), Bam Adebayo (only if Whiteside is still out), Thaddeus Young, Brenden Wright (great value if Marc Gasol is out. Don’t for JaMychal Green is still out which would leave this front court very shorthanded if Gasol sat), Andrew Harrison/Mario Chalmers (if Mike Conley is out. I will favor whoever starts), Tyreke Evans (would take on more usage if either Gasol or Conley are out), and T.J. McConnell.