Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 20th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with 11 games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (9,200) Simmons has been excellent in his last two games, posting a double double in each game, while averaging 55.6 DK points a night. Tonight he is at home taking on The Jazz, who have become a very weak defensive team with their best defender, Rudy Gobert, sidelined. Right now, they currently rate as a 1.43 opponent +/- for starting PGs. So far this year, Simmons is averaging a 24.5% usage rate, and is averaging 1.23 DK points per minute. He should log his usual 35+ minutes tonight and score 50+ DK points, with huge upside if Sixers starting center Joel Embiid is out.
He was listed as a game time decision by the team and if he was out, Simmons would have to take on a huge workload, as he is seeing a team high 5% usage increase in the minutes he has played without Embiid this season. Either way, if Embiid is in or out, Simmons is one of the better high end values of this 11 game slate and he can be used with confidence in all formats.
PF/C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (4,500) Predicting any Kings’ player’s minutes this season has been difficult, but WCS has played over 30 minutes in his last two games. The Kentucky product has been great with the higher minutes, averaging 39.4 DK points during this stretch. He has been very active in the offense in these games, posting a 27.7% usage rate, which is a huge difference from his 19.3% average this season. The higher usage has pushed him to scoring a great 1.23 DK point per minute.
Tonight he gets a tough match up vs The Nuggets (-5.12 opponent +-), but this is a matchup that they will need Cauley-Stein’s size to matchup with Nikola Jokic. Assuming he sees around 30 minutes again tonight, WCS should easily return five times value even in this difficult matchup. He is one of the strongest values of the night, that is a viable target in both cash games and GPPs.
PG: Rajon Rondo: (4,800) After missing the start of the season due to a hernia, Rondo has been slowly worked back into this Pelican’s rotation, and he is expected to play “24-26 minutes” tonight. He was only supposed to play “20-24” minutes on Friday, but he ended up logging 25.4 minutes, so we could see him approach 30 minutes this evening. With the higher playing time, Rondo had a productive night on Friday, scoring 25.25 DK points in the loss to the Nuggets. With a projection of 26 minutes, Rondo has a great chance of exceeding five times value, as he is scoring 1.13 DK points per minute so far this year.
This matchup isn’t the best vs The Thunder, as they are a good defensive team, but they have been average at defending PGs, currently rating as 0.67 opponent +/-. This game has a solid O/U game total of 213 points, and a very tight spread of only 2.5 points. With no game since Friday and no game tomorrow, Rondo should be fresh and ready for this big home game vs The Thunder. I think we see him put up his best DK score of the season in this game and he is a fine GPP play at only $4,800, that may get overlooked in this huge slate. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
PF/C: Mason Plumlee: (3,700) Nuggets’ starting PF Paul Milsap has been ruled out with a wrist injury, which should push Plumlee into the starting five tonight vs The Kings. Even if he didn’t start, Plumlee will still likely see 25-30 minutes tonight, which is more than enough for him to crush value at his current price tag. With Milsap leaving the game early and Nikola Jokic getting ejected on Sunday, Plumlee played a season high 30 minutes and scored 26.5 DK points vs The Lakers.
He scores right over a DK point per minute this season, and with the minutes I am expecting, Plumlee should score 25-30 DK points in this awesome matchup vs The Kings, that is currently sitting at a high 7.39 opponent +/-. He is the best point per dollar value of this entire slate, and is value play that is difficult to ignore on Monday night. UPDATE: As we get closer to lock, its sounds more likely that Kenneth Faried starts for Milsap. If this is indeed the case, Faried is the value play to target in this situation at only $3,400. Whoever starts is the better play and the one that doesn’t is still a viable punt in GPPs.
Also Consider: Mario Chalmers (30 DK points in the start on Saturday. Conley is still out and Tyreke Evans is now listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. Chalmers is a viable target even if Evans plays, but he would become a really strong play if Evans sat this one out), Dillon Brooks (better if Evans is out), Kenneth Faried, Tim Frazier (26.5 DK points in 36 minutes yesterday with John Wall out. Wall is currently questionable, and if he is out again, Frazier enters must play status at only $3,400), Kyle Anderson, J.J. Redick, Courtney Lee (would soak up some usage and have to play more if Tim Hardaway Jr was out. Lee would be in play at his cheap price, and Porzingis would become one of the better high end plays of the night), Dennis Schroder (Simply is mispriced at $6,300), Nicholas Batum, Stanley Johnson, Avery Bradley, and Garrett Temple.