What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 24th. Saturday night’s slate is a solid one, with seven games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG/SG: James Harden: (11,100)
Chris Paul (rest) is out, which is huge boost for Harden. In the time he has logged without CP3 and Carmelo Anthony this season, Harden has taken on a 5.6% usage increase and is scoring an outstanding 1.86 DK PPM.
The Cavs are the worst rated defense in The NBA (1.41 opponent +/-) and The Beard should approach a triple double, assuming this game doesn’t become a blowout (HOU -10), which it shouldn’t, with The Cavs playing better and Paul out of the lineup. With Anthony Davis’ health in question (below), Harden is the top overall option for cash games on Saturday night.
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (8,600)
Holiday put up 43.75 DK points in the loss to The Knicks last night and he has now produced 47 DK PPG over his last five. With Elfrid Payton (finger) still sidelined, Holiday has been starting at point and in these past two starts, he has been used at a very high clip. (31.5%) Tonight, he heads to Washington, to play a horrible Wizards’ defense (28th in efficiency), that will likely be without Dwight Howard again. (questionable, lower body)
Both of these teams rank in the top ten in pace and this matchup has the highest O/U game total of Saturday night (239 points), by a large 13 points. Even with Anthony Davis (hip) questionable, The Pelicans are still favored by one point. In roughly 40 minutes of action, Holiday should get us 45-50 DK points and is one of the better high end values of Saturday night.
PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (7,800)
Lavine supplied 43.5 DK points vs The Heat last night and he has now scored 40+ DK points in back to back games, after two tough matchups vs The Celtics and Bucks. He will now head to his old home, Minnesota, for a revenge game vs The Wolves. In the two instances LaVine has played The Wolves since being traded in the Jimmy Butler deal, he is averaging 44.4 DK PPG.
Additional to the revenge factor, The Wolves are the 7th worst ranked defense in the league this season. (1.4 opponent +/-) The Wolves are favored by 10.5 points, which isn’t ideal, but I think LaVine keeps them in striking range for most of the night and pours in over 40 DK points on his former squad.
SF: Cedi Osman: (4,800)
With J.R. Smith now out of the picture, Osman should play very high minutes every night. He played 41.3 minutes in Friday’s shocking win over The Sixers and this was the second game in a row he has topped 40 minutes. In these two, Osman is averaging a great 35.4 DK PPG. When we do the math, this 0.84 DK PPM and tonight, even though it’s the second night of a back to back, the 23 year old SF should play around 40 minutes again vs The Rockets.
They don’t rate as a strong individual matchup for Osman (0.67 opponent +/-), but they are still the 19th ranked defense overall. Either way, this recommendation is based of playing time and Osman will see a ton of it, bringing him into the value play conversation at only $4,800.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,400)
Davis left last night’s game briefly due to a strained right hip and he is listed as questionable for this game vs The Wizards. He only scored 2.0 DK points after returning, so it’s hard to say if he will be ready to go tonight. But, if he is, and there is no limitations, this an awesome spot for The Brow. Assuming Howard is out, there isn’t a single player on this Wizards’ roster that has any chance of slowing down AD and he would flourish in this up tempo environment. He is averaging 62.5 DK PPG in his last nine, making him obviously mis priced, but just as a fair warning, even if he suits up, there is always a chance AD will exit the game early. He is an elite play in GPPs, but for cash games, the injury concerns make him a scary spend.
SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (10,600)
After some ugly shooting nights, KD found his stroke on Friday, hitting 63% of his shots in the much needed win over The Blazers. (61 DK points) Both Draymond Green (toe) and Steph Curry (groin) are expected to remain out tonight and Durant should continue to see elite usage vs this 21st ranked Kings’ defense. In all the time he has played without Green and Curry this season, Durant is seeing a team high 36.8% usage rate and is scoring 1.44 DK PPM. This game projects to stay close (GSW -6), which should put Durant somewhere between 35-40 minutes on his home floor.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,100)
KAT has been a tough player to own as of late (35.9 DK PPG in his last four), but this a tremendous matchup vs The Bulls (3.41 opponent +/-), especially on his home floor. (5.5 more DK PPG this season)
PG: John Wall: (8,500)
This is an awesome price for Wall at home (43.6 DK PPG), playing up in pace vs The Pelicans. (3.07 opponent +/-) He has been hit or miss lately, but should top 40 DK points in this high scoring event.
C: Clint Capela: (7,500)
Capela has been a monster recently. (59 DK PPG in last three) His usage has been higher in his last two (22.9%) and it should be even higher sans Paul and Anthony. (2.1% usage increase and 1.41 DK PPM without them this year) The Cavs are a 1.18 opponent +/- for centers and Capela is a near lock for his 5th double double in a row and 35+ DK points.
PF/C: Julius Randle: (7,300)
Would be a core play if Davis was out. Randle would start and is averaging 41.9 DK PPG in the two previous AD missed this year. He would bully this Wizards front court for at least 40 DK points.
SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (6,800)
Also a great value if Davis sits. In those two games without The Brow this season, Mirotic scored 42.3 DK PPG.
SG: Klay Thompson: (6,800)
Was awesome last night vs The Blazers (47.25 DK points) and is now averaging 38.13 DK PPG in these last four without Curry and Green. I like him to have another strong shooting night and 35+ DK points vs this Kings defense, that has allowed the 6th most made 3PPG this season.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,900)
Parker has taken advantage of Wendell Carter playing less, tallying a double double in each of his last two games. (46.6 DK PPG) I hate his floor, but if this improved rebounding continues, vs this Wolves’ team that is allowing the 4th most RPG, Parker should crush value at his current salary.
C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (5,800)
WCS has produced 35.13 DK PPG in his last two and this matchup vs The Warriors is solid with Green still out. (1.04 opponent +/-) He should get a double double and close to six times value.
SG/SF: Eric Gordon: (4,500)
If he starts for Paul, Gordon needs to be considered at this cheap price. Even though he is having a down year overall, a starting role, and more minutes should push Gordon over value, vs this bad Cavs’ defense. He averaged 30.33 DK PPG in the 20 CP3 missed last year and scored 28 DK PPG in the first two the PG has missed this season.
SF/PF: Jeff Green: (4,300)
If we don’t count the seven minutes Howard played vs Portland, Green is averaging 28.2 DK PPG in these last three without the big man. If Howard is out, Green is a viable gamble, that should be lower owned.
SG/SF: Gerald Green: (3,400)
Green should have to play 25+ minutes off the bench, with Paul out and Anthony not with the team anymore. In all the minutes Green has played without these two players, he has seen a team high 6.4% usage increase and is scoring 0.83 DK PPM. Going against this weak Cavs’ defense, Green has a pretty good shot at 20+ DK points.
*Please note most of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com