Welcome back guys. I hope everyone had a nice Holiday! Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 24th, 2017. Friday night slate is a full slate with nine games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:30 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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PF/C: Anthony Davis: (10,700) Davis did his job for us on Wednesday night, scoring 51.75 DK points in the win over The Spurs. Tonight he and The Pelicans head to Phoenix and have the highest implied team total of the night at 117.5 points. This contest is also expected to stay rather competitive with The Pels only favored by 6.5 points. When we run the numbers, when Davis and his team have had an implied team total of at least 112 points in game where they are favored by no more than seven points, AD is averaging 58.35 DK points, coming from a sample size of five games.
This Suns team plays at the fastest pace in the league, rank in the bottom three in defensive efficiency, allow the second most total rebounds per game, and are currently sitting at a 4.17 opponent +/- vs starting PFs. The Suns should have no answer for Davis, and I am expecting 55-60 DK points from The Brow tonight. Fellow big man Demarcus Cousins is obviously is also very much in play, but I prefer taking the savings with Davis, but if you want to go real cheap at the other positions, it is very possible to get both of these Pelicans big men in the same lineup. UPDATE: With the news of Kevin Durant and Draymond Green both being out tonight, I believe Steph Curry becomes a priority, and is a nice complementary play to Davis.
PF/C: John Collins: (4,800) Even though his ownership is going to be through the roof (41%+ projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), I think we must go right back to Collins tonight. Wednesday night he drew the start as I predicted, and notched his fourth double-double of the season, scoring 38.5 DK points in 38 minutes of action vs The Clippers. The Hawks will be without center Mike Muscala and PF Luke Babbit once again, which should keep Collins as the starting PF tonight vs The Knicks.
This matchup is neutral (-0.18 opponent +/-) and if Collins can once again keep himself out of serious foul trouble, he should log 35+ minutes and produce six to seven times value at his current price. The foul trouble concerns still very much exist, especially against Kristapas Porzingis, but fading Collins is tough thing to do, because if he sees the minutes, he will end up being one of the best values of the night once again.
SG/SF: Jeremy Lamb: (5,100) Starting SF Nicholas Batum (elbow) will miss tonight’s game vs The Cavs, putting Lamb back into the starting five. Batum just made his season debut last Wednesday, and in the 12 games Lamb played as the starting SF with Batum sidelined, he averaged 29 DK points in 30.3 minutes a game. Back when he was a starter his price hovered around $6,000, but he is priced as a bench player tonight at only $5,100. This couldn’t be a better time for Lamb to get back to playing starter like minutes vs this Cavs defense that we all know has been the worst rated defensive in the entire league this season.
It’s rare to see a starting player not exceeded five times value vs this mess of a defense, and in 30-35 minutes, Lamb should be able to put up 25-30 DK points, as this defense is currently presenting a high opponent +/- of 8.39 points, which is the third best matchup for any player in action on Friday night. Another thing worth noting, and I know I always bring it up, but for any shooter like Lamb, this is an excellent spot to attack, as The Cavs have are allowing the third most three pointers made and third most three pointers attempted this season. Lamb is a steal at $5,100 and is a player I will be deploying in all formats tonight.
PG: Elfrid Payton: (5,700) I don’t mind Payton in cash, but this is more of a GPP pick for this nine game slate. After being limited in a couple games due to a recent hamstring injury, Payton came out and played 34 minutes vs The Wolves on Wednesday night. He posted a double-double of 10 points, 13 assists, along with four rebounds, two steals, and a block in the loss. (41.5 DK points) Assuming he will once again see 30+ minutes, Payton has a nice chance to put up 30+ DK points tonight vs The Celtics. This Celtics defense is the best in The NBA, but at the moment they are currently rating as a positive matchup for starting PGs. (1.9 opponent +/-)
He is scoring right at 1.0 DK point per minute and with a projection of 30 minutes, which is a tentative projection if this game is close throughout (-7.5 BOS), Payton should be able to score five to six times value at his $5,700 price, which is the first time he has been priced under $6,000 this season. As I said earlier, I think he is better suited for GPPs, and at this bargain price and low expected ownership of 2-4% (via Fantasy Labs), Payton looks like one of the better tournament targets of the night.
Also Consider: Omri Cassipi (great value assuming he starts for KD), Kevin Looney/David West (both are in play with Green out. I prefer whoever starts), Nick Young (GPP viable with Durant and Green’s usage out of the picture), Rajon Rondo (the fast matchup is perfect for Rondo and he is still priced $5,000. He is a nice cheap way of getting another piece of this Pelicans team that has the highest implied team total of the night. This is the first back to back set since Rondo came back from his hernia and according to Will Guillroy of NOLA.com who I spoke to this morning on Twitter, there hasn’t been any word of Rondo being rested tonight or tomorrow), Tim Hardaway Jr., Will Barton, Pascal Siakam (should stay in a 25-30 minute role with C.J. Miles and Delon Wright out), Greg Monroe, Mario Chalmers, Enes Kanter, Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist (37.5 DK points vs The Cavs last week, should see heavier minutes with Batum sitting this one out), T.J. Warren, Dennis Schroder, Tyreke Evans, and Kris Dunn.