What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 25th, 2017. Tonight we get a solid slate with ten games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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C: Joel Embiid: (9,800) Tonight, The Sixers will be without stud PG Ben Simmons due to an elbow injury. Simmons does a ton for this offense (25.3% usage, 33.9% assist), and with him out Embiid should take on a massive workload in this Sixers’ offense. In the 100 minutes Embiid has logged with Simmons on the bench this season, he is leading the way with a 38.2% usage rate, which is a solid 3.8% bump to his already very high rate. With all of Simmons, Jahill Okafor (hasn’t seen the floor in over two weeks), and Markell Fultz (shoulder) off the floor, Embiid is scoring 1.63 DK points per minute this season. With no game since Wednesday and no game tomorrow, Embiid shouldn’t have limitations, and he should log 30-35 minutes with this game having a relatively small spread of six points.
This match-up vs The Magic is also very enticing, as they have allowed the tenth most DK points to opposing centers, with a current opponent +/- of 1.17 points. As the focal point of the offense, Embiid should top 50+ DK points, with huge upside depending on how many blocks he can get and if he can tally a double-double. He is a must play for me, and I will be building around Embiid and Steph Curry, who we all know is also very underpriced for the role he will have tonight with SF Kevin Durant out. (9.3% usage increase with KD off the court this season and is scoring 66.6 DK points per 36 minutes)
PG: Tim Frazier: (3,600) Wizards starting PG John Wall (knee) is expected to miss the next two weeks, which means Frazier becomes a plug and play value until his price adjusts. In the two other games Wall has missed this season, it was Frazier who received the start, averaging 21.5 DK points and 33.5 minutes in these two starts.
He scores 0.75 DK points per minute this season and, in 30+ minutes, Frazier should produce five to six times value in this neutral matchup vs Damian Lillard and The Blazers. (0.01 opponent +/-) Don’t over think this one, take advantage of Frazier at this price, because he isn’t going to be this cheap for long.
SF/PF: Robert Covington: (6,200) Covington is quietly having an excellent fantasy season, averaging 31.7 DK points a game. Just like with all The Sixers tonight, he will be seeing a nice boost with Simmons sitting this game out. This will be the first full game of the year that Simmons has missed, but in the 85 minutes Covington has seen without Simmons, Okafor, and Fultz, Covington’s usage has increase 2.4%, his assist percentage 1.1%, and his rebound percentage 3%, all resulting in him scoring 41.51 DK points per 36 minutes.
Him and Embiid should lead this offense in shots, and I think Covington should have no issues scoring 30-35 DK points in this positive matchup vs The Magic, who have struggled at defending SFs this season. (2.83 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Wesley Johnson: (4,000) Johnson was a huge part of this Clippers team ending their nine game losing streak Wednesday night, shooting 8/10 from the field, scoring 24 points, and scoring 33.75 DK points in the win over The Hawks. It was hard for Clippers Head Coach Doc Rivers to keep him off the court, with him logging 36 minutes in the win. Even though it hasn’t turned into many wins, Johnson has been great over his last four games, averaging 31.7 DK points a night.
With PG Patrick Beverly (knee) officially out for the season and SF Danilo Gallinari (glute) remaining out, Johnson will once again start tonight and should see 30-35 minutes after his great performance in Wednesday’s win. This is a nice spot for him going against a Kings team that ranks second to last in defensive efficiency. (0.63 opponent +/-) He is still too cheap at only $4,000, and looks like a sneaky value play for this large slate. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: T.J. McConnell (will start for Simmons and is a very strong value at only $4,000), Dario Saric (Should also see a bump without Simmons), John Collins (should start again with Muscala and Babbit both out again. He is averaging 33 DK points over his last three games), Jeremy Lamb (nice value if Batum is out again), Marcin Gortat, Clint Capela, J.J. Redick, Kyle O’Quinn (if Kanter is out again), Tim Hardaway Jr. (nice bump in usage if Kanter remains out, is a viable play either way), Otto Porter Jr. (4.6% usage increase with Wall off the court), Derrick Favors, Dwight Howard (price has dropped $300 for some odd reason. This is a nice matchup against Pau Gasol and The Spurs who currently present a high opponent +/- of 4.88 points), Rajon Rondo (unclear if his minutes will be monitored in this back to back situation, but Rondo is the type of player who plays his best against the best, which is very much the case tonight against The Warriors), Dennis Schroder, Klay Thompson, and Omri Cassipi (23 DK points last night in the start for Durant).