What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 27th, 2017. Tonight we get a nice slate with eight games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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C: Clint Capela: (7,000) Tonight, Capela gets a dream matchup vs The Nets, who have allowed the second most DK points to opposing centers this season. They allow the second most total rebounds per game, are tied for the most blocks allowed per game, and are currently sitting an opponent +/- of 7.2 points. Plus, The Rockets are going to be without back up center Nene (shoulder), which will hopefully keep Capela’s playing time right around 30 minutes.
He is averaging 36.2 DK points a game over his last eight games and I think we see him put up 35-40 DK points vs this weak interior defense. He has huge upside depending how blocks he can get and if he can post a double-double, which obviously a strong possibility. Even at a higher price of $7,000, I like Capela’s chances of exceeding value in this spot, and he is a fine play in all formats that gives you a share of this Rockets’ team that has the highest implied team total of the night at 122 points.
PG: Jarret Jack: (3,900) For a little while, The Knicks were essentially splitting their PG minutes between Jack and rookie Frank Ntilinkina, but over the last few games they have had Jack, the starter, play heavier minutes. He has played over 30 minutes now in three straight games, and is averaging 26.4 DK points during this time. He is scoring a very serviceable 0.73 DK points a minute this season, and if these heavier minutes continue, Jack should produce five to six times value in this decent matchup vs The Blazers. (0.28 opponent +/-)
Both Enes Kanter and Kristapas Porzingis are questionable tonight with back injuries, and if either were out, Jack’s usage would naturally see a sizable bump. Either way if The Knicks are at full strength or not, Jack is way too cheap for the minutes he has been playing. The Knicks’ rotations sometimes can be hard to predict, but Jack at this cheap price, is worth a risk, with the hope that his growing role continues Monday night.
SF/PF: Wesley Johnson: (4,400) Johnson had an okay night on Saturday, putting up 18 DK points vs The Kings, but he still logged a team high 39.4 minutes in the win. He has been relied on heavily with starting SF Danilo Gallinari out (glute), as he is now averaging 35 minutes over his last five starts. Gallinari will be out again tonight, and I think this is a perfect time to get back on Johnson against his former team, The Lakers. For starting SFs, this is a positive match-up (2.4 opponent +/-), especially when you factor in that Johnson will be playing up in pace, as The Lakers are the second fastest team, compared to The Clippers who are the 16th fastest squad.
He is scoring 0.76 DK points per minute this season and, with 30-40 minutes, Johnson should bounce back and score 25-30 DK points vs this Lakers defense. Plenty of things may change with a ton of big names in question tonight, but as of right now, Johnson is one of the stronger value plays that is easy to fit in with his SF/PF eligibility.
SF/PF: Harrison Barnes: (5,500) I understand that The Spurs are a top five defense, but there is no way Barnes should be with this cheap. Yea, as a whole this defense may rate well, but they are still without the best wing defender in The NBA, in Kawhi Leonard (quad). It isn’t eye popping, but this is currently a slightly positive match-up for starting SFs, at an 0.85 opponent +/-. At a price tag of $5,500, Barnes needs to score 27.5 DK points to meet five times value.
He has scored 27.5 DK points or more in nine straight games, and he is actually averaging 36.6 DK points a night during this span, showing you how under-priced he is right now. His minutes are safest on this Mavs team, and in 30-35 minutes, Barnes should easily top five times value in this average matchup. This is a good time to take advantage of this discount, and I think he is viable for both cash games and GPPs.
Also Consider: Omri Cassipi (strong play if Durant is out again), Shaun Livingston (nice value if Steph Curry is out), Jordan Bell (if Draymond Green is out, Bell scored 36 DK points in 26 minutes with Green out Friday night), Kevin Looney (only if Green is out), Klay Thompson (if one of the three GSW stars is out, if multiple are out, he would see a big bump in usage),Kyle O’Quinn (if either Kanter or Porzi are out, 50.75 DK points with both out Saturday), Lou Williams (slight revenge factor here), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (averaging 34 DK points over his last six games), Courtney Lee, T.J McConnell (if Ben Simmons is out, seems like he will play after being at shootaround), Al Horford, DeMarre Carroll/Caris LeVert (both RHJ and Crabbe are out). Tim Hardaway Jr. (his usage would be up if either Kanter or Porzi sat out), Robert Covington (better if Simmons was out), Elfird Payton (really only viable in GPPs, but this is a nice spot for him against The Pacers), Trevor Ariza, and Lance Stephenson (great play if Oladipo is out again. 33 DK points in 36 minutes Saturday with Dipo out vs The Celtics).